Bournemouth vs Sturm: UEFA Europa League Match Prediction
Bournemouth
Sturm GrazBournemouth host Sturm Graz at the Vitality Stadium on 15 October in the second round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. The hosts are 10th with three points; the visitors are 17th with one and can close the two-point gap.
Bournemouth: European progress, domestic setbacks
Recent results and home performance
Bournemouth have two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five matches. They beat Lincoln City 4:0, drew 2:2 with Brentford and won 2:1 at Real Sociedad before losing to Liverpool and Chelsea. The latest away match ended 1:5.
Scoring strengths and defensive weaknesses
- Bournemouth scored in four of five matches; Liverpool kept them scoreless in their latest home fixture.
- They conceded in four of five, including against Lincoln City.
Availability and selection limits
Alex Scott and Julian Araujo are out with thigh injuries. Eli Junior Kroupi has resumed training on the pitch but is not ready for this match. Amine Adli and Justin Kluivert are available for limited minutes rather than a full game.
- Chelsiaway1:5
- Liverpulʹhome0:1
- Real Sosʹyedadaway2:1
- Brentfordhome2:2
- Linkolʹn Sitihome4:0
Sturm Graz: improved results before the trip
Form with a competitive-match caveat
Sturm's last five fixtures brought three wins, one draw and one defeat. They beat LASK 2:1, drew 0:0 with Rennes and lost 0:3 to Red Bull before defeating Floridsdorfer AC 3:1 and Austria 2:0. The Floridsdorfer AC match was a friendly.
Attack and clean-sheet profile
- Sturm kept two clean sheets, including their European opener against Rennes.
- They failed to score twice.
- Only one of the five matches went Over 3.5 goals; BTTS occurred twice, less frequently than in Bournemouth's recent matches.
Absences across the squad
Otar Kiteishvili is unavailable with a calf injury, Filip Rozga with a muscle injury and Gizo Mamageishvili with a foot injury. Emran Soglo, Leon Grgic and Nelson Weiper are also ruled out through injury, while Albert Vallci's participation is doubtful. Sturm have six confirmed absences and another player uncertain; no probable lineup or formation has been confirmed.
- Austriyaaway2:0
- Floridsdorfer AKhome3:1
- Red Bullhome0:3
- Rennhome0:0
- LASKhome2:1
Coaches call for a response and ambition
Marco Rose wants a reaction after the Chelsea defeat and describes Bournemouth's first home European fixture as a major occasion the team must use well. Fabio Ingolitsch wants his young Sturm side to play boldly and actively, using the visit to gain experience rather than simply protecting the point earned in the opening round.
Our prediction
Bournemouth’s home advantage and their stronger European profile make W1 1.21 the preferred outcome. The English side opened the Europa League with a 2:1 away win over Real Sociedad, while Sturm collected only one point after a goalless draw with Rennes. The market also rates the hosts at 80.2% for victory, with no meaningful line movement toward the visitors.
Recent domestic form adds some caution: Bournemouth have lost their last two matches, including a 1:5 defeat at Chelsea, but they have scored in four of their last five fixtures and won 4:0 at home against Lincoln City. Sturm arrive after two wins, yet they are without the injured Otar Kiteishvili, Filip Rozga, Gizo Mamagheishvili, Emran Soglo, Leon Grgic and Nelson Weiper. Albert Vallci is also doubtful. Bournemouth are without Alex Scott and Julian Araujo, while Amine Adli and Justin Kluivert are only ready for limited minutes. The hosts should control territory and create more chances; the likely score is 2:0.
Conclusion
W1 1.21 is supported by the home setting, the gap in squad depth and Bournemouth’s stronger start in Europe. Sturm’s injury absences make an away upset less likely.
FAQ
When does Bournemouth — Sturm Graz kick off?
The match starts on 15.10.2026 at 15:00 (New York), Vitality (Bournemouth).
What is the prediction for Bournemouth — Sturm Graz?
Our pick is W1 at 1.21.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Bournemouth win — 80%, draw — 13%, Sturm Graz win — 7%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Chelsiaway1:5
- Liverpulʹhome0:1
- Real Sosʹyedadaway2:1
- Brentfordhome2:2
- Linkolʹn Sitihome4:0
- Austriyaaway2:0
- Floridsdorfer AKhome3:1
- Red Bullhome0:3
- Rennhome0:0
- LASKhome2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | OFI Crete | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 16 | AC Omonia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 18 | Stade Rennais | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
About the match
- 15 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Vitality (Bournemouth), Bornmut
- Weather: 17° · precip. 4% · wind 3.2 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 14.10 10:10
A clear favourite, but balanced goal markets
The 1X2 market assigns Bournemouth an 80.2% home-win probability after removing the margin, against 12.6% for the draw and 7.2% for the away win. All three lines have been broadly unchanged over the past 24 hours, with no shift towards Sturm despite the contrasting recent results.
The Over/Under 3.5 goals market is divided at 50% on each side. BTTS Yes is at 50.6% and No at 49.5%. Neither goal market shows a clear preference.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Current odds
- 1.21
- Odds at prediction
- 1.21
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 80%
- Market estimate
- 80%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.21
- Potential win
- 21 $
- Status
- pending
