Bournemouth vs Sturm: UEFA Europa League Match Prediction
Bournemouth
Sturm GrazMatch result
Bournemouth 3:0 Sturm Graz (1:0, 2:0)
Bournemouth secured a 3:0 victory against Sturm Graz in the UEFA Europa League. The match ended with period scores of 1:0 in the first half and 2:0 in the second half. Our 1X2 home win prediction was successful, and the bet won.
Our prediction: W1 at 1.21 — the bet won.
Bournemouth host Sturm Graz at the Vitality Stadium on 15 October in the second round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. The hosts are 10th with three points; the visitors are 17th with one and can close the two-point gap.
Bournemouth: European progress, domestic setbacks
Recent results and home performance
Bournemouth have two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five matches. They beat Lincoln City 4:0, drew 2:2 with Brentford and won 2:1 at Real Sociedad before losing to Liverpool and Chelsea. The latest away match ended 1:5.
Scoring strengths and defensive weaknesses
- Bournemouth scored in four of five matches; Liverpool kept them scoreless in their latest home fixture.
- They conceded in four of five, including against Lincoln City.
Availability and selection limits
Alex Scott and Julian Araujo are out with thigh injuries. Eli Junior Kroupi has resumed training on the pitch but is not ready for this match. Amine Adli and Justin Kluivert are available for limited minutes rather than a full game.
- Chelseaaway1:5
- Liverpoolhome0:1
- Real Sociedadaway2:1
- Brentfordhome2:2
- Lincoln Cityhome4:0
Sturm Graz: improved results before the trip
Form with a competitive-match caveat
Sturm's last five fixtures brought three wins, one draw and one defeat. They beat LASK 2:1, drew 0:0 with Rennes and lost 0:3 to Red Bull before defeating Floridsdorfer AC 3:1 and Austria 2:0. The Floridsdorfer AC match was a friendly.
Attack and clean-sheet profile
- Sturm kept two clean sheets, including their European opener against Rennes.
- They failed to score twice.
- Only one of the five matches went Over 3.5 goals; BTTS occurred twice, less frequently than in Bournemouth's recent matches.
Absences across the squad
Otar Kiteishvili is unavailable with a calf injury, Filip Rozga with a muscle injury and Gizo Mamageishvili with a foot injury. Emran Soglo, Leon Grgic and Nelson Weiper are also ruled out through injury, while Albert Vallci's participation is doubtful. Sturm have six confirmed absences and another player uncertain; no probable lineup or formation has been confirmed.
- Austria Wienaway2:0
- Floridsdorfer AChome3:1
- Red Bull Salzburghome0:3
- Stade Rennaishome0:0
- LASK Linzhome2:1
Coaches call for a response and ambition
Marco Rose wants a reaction after the Chelsea defeat and describes Bournemouth's first home European fixture as a major occasion the team must use well. Fabio Ingolitsch wants his young Sturm side to play boldly and actively, using the visit to gain experience rather than simply protecting the point earned in the opening round.
Line-ups
Bournemouth
Starting XI: 1. Djordje Petrovic, 4. Lewis Cook, 6. Julio Soler, 9. Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa, 11. Ben Doak, 12. Tyler Adams, 14. Antonio Joao Pereira Albuquerque Tavares Silva, 15. Adam Smith, 16. Marcus Tavernier, 18. Bafode Diakite, 30. Alvaro Daniel Rodriguez Munoz
Substitutes: 3. Adrien Truffert, 5. James Hill, 7. David Brooks, 10. Ryan Christie, 19. Justin Kluivert, 20. Michele Di Gregorio, 21. Amine Adli, 27. Alex Toth, 37. Rayan Vitor, 55. Mack Allan
Coach: Marco Rose
Sturm Graz
Starting XI: 2. Joshua Quarshie, 4. Jon Stankovic, 19. Simon Seidl, 21. Petar Petrovic, 23. Arjan Malic, 26. Belmin Beganovic, 27. Luis Estefano Balbo Vieira, 28. Jurgen Heil, 43. Jacob Hodl, 53. Daniil Khudyakov, 78. Valmir Matoshi
Substitutes: 5. Albert VallciInjury, 11. Axel Kayombo, 14. Check Oumar Diakite, 22. Ammar Helac, 25. Mate Grgic, 30. Pascal Koller, 37. Jonas Petritsch, 38. Jonas Peinhart, 39. Luca Weinhandl, 40. Julian Halwachs, 41. Elias Lorenz
Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch
Our prediction
Bournemouth’s home advantage and their stronger European profile make W1 1.21 the preferred outcome. The English side opened the Europa League with a 2:1 away win over Real Sociedad, while Sturm collected only one point after a goalless draw with Rennes. The market also rates the hosts at 80.2% for victory, with no meaningful line movement toward the visitors.
Recent domestic form adds some caution: Bournemouth have lost their last two matches, including a 1:5 defeat at Chelsea, but they have scored in four of their last five fixtures and won 4:0 at home against Lincoln City. Sturm arrive after two wins, yet they are without the injured Otar Kiteishvili, Filip Rozga, Gizo Mamagheishvili, Emran Soglo, Leon Grgic and Nelson Weiper. Albert Vallci is also doubtful. Bournemouth are without Alex Scott and Julian Araujo, while Amine Adli and Justin Kluivert are only ready for limited minutes. The hosts should control territory and create more chances; the likely score is 2:0.
Conclusion
W1 1.21 is supported by the home setting, the gap in squad depth and Bournemouth’s stronger start in Europe. Sturm’s injury absences make an away upset less likely.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Chelseaaway1:5
- Liverpoolhome0:1
- Real Sociedadaway2:1
- Brentfordhome2:2
- Lincoln Cityhome4:0
- Austria Wienaway2:0
- Floridsdorfer AChome3:1
- Red Bull Salzburghome0:3
- Stade Rennaishome0:0
- LASK Linzhome2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Besiktas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:3 | 6 |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 6 | AC Omonia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 6 |
| 25 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:3 | 1 |
| 27 | N.E.C. | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:6 | 1 |
About the match
- 15 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Vitality (Bournemouth), Bornmut
Odds
odds before kick-off
A clear favourite, but balanced goal markets
The 1X2 market assigns Bournemouth an 80.2% home-win probability after removing the margin, against 12.6% for the draw and 7.2% for the away win. All three lines have been broadly unchanged over the past 24 hours, with no shift towards Sturm despite the contrasting recent results.
The Over/Under 3.5 goals market is divided at 50% on each side. BTTS Yes is at 50.6% and No at 49.5%. Neither goal market shows a clear preference.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Odds
- 1.21
- Odds at prediction
- 1.21
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 80%
- Market estimate
- 83%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.21
- Potential win
- 21 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.16
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +21 $
