Benfica vs Celtic: UEFA Europa League Match Prediction
Benfica
CelticBenfica host Celtic at Estadio da Luz in Lisbon on 15 October in the second round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Benfica opened with a win, while Celtic seek their first points. Kick-off is at 15:00 America/New_York time. Dry conditions and a temperature of 24°C are expected.
Benfica: scoring consistency and a strong European start
Recent results and home advantage
Benfica have won four of their last five matches. The sequence includes victories over Moreirense, Gil Vicente and Milan, a defeat at Porto, and a win over Vitoria Guimaraes. Their opening European victory in Milan puts them seventh, level on points with leaders Juventus.
Attacking output and defensive limits
- Benfica scored in all five matches, including the 3:1 defeat at Porto.
- Porto scored three against them.
Availability before selection
Alexander Bah has completed full training and is ready to play. Daniel Banjaki and Jakub Kaminski are out with muscle injuries; Enzo Barrenechea is also injured, while Jayden Umeh missed team training and will not feature.
- Vitoriya Gimaraynshhome2:0
- Portuaway1:3
- Milanaway2:0
- Zhil Visentehome3:1
- Moreyrensheaway4:0
Celtic: a recovery away from home after three defeats
Results and league-phase position
Celtic beat Motherwell 2:0 on Sunday to end a run of three defeats. Across their last five games they recorded two wins, scored five goals and conceded seven. Their European opener ended in a 1:3 home loss to Ferencvaros, leaving them 28th without a point and three points behind the leader. Another round without points would prolong that deficit.
Contrasting home and away returns
- Both recent wins came away, against St Johnstone and Motherwell, with clean sheets in each.
- The other away fixture ended in a 0:3 defeat to Rangers, so Celtic's road results have depended on the opponent.
- Celtic scored in three of five matches, with BTTS in just one; only the Ferencvaros game went Over 3.5 goals.
Returning players and confirmed absences
Cameron Carter-Vickers remains out with a strain, but Auston Trusty is available. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain returns after serving his suspension. Jota is not registered for the Europa League and cannot play. Camilo Duran missed training to be with his partner before the birth of their child; Martin O'Neill hopes the forward can join the squad, but has not confirmed his availability. No probable XI or formation has been announced.
- Moteruellaway2:0
- Reyndzhershome0:1
- Ferentsvaroshhome1:3
- Reyndzhersaway0:3
- Sent-Dzhonstonaway1:0
Head-to-head
- 20.11.2012Benfika2:1SeltikLiga Chempionov (Gruppovoy etap)
- 19.09.2012Seltik0:0BenfikaLiga Chempionov (Gruppovoy etap)
- 06.11.2007Seltik1:0BenfikaLiga Chempionov (Gruppovoy etap)
- 24.10.2007Benfika1:0SeltikLiga Chempionov (Gruppovoy etap)
- 01.11.2006Benfika3:0SeltikLiga Chempionov UYEFA. Gruppa F
Coaches focus on selection and the challenge ahead
Silva says he will assess player condition, team performance and the opposition before selecting his side. O'Neill says Celtic are looking forward to the fixture and want to meet its challenge. Neither comment specifies a tactical plan, and no independent expert assessment is available.
Our pick for Lisbon
Our bet is W1 1.27. Benfica’s scoring record is the main reason to back them at Estadio da Luz: 12 goals across their last five matches, with no blanks, means Celtic must contain an attack that has produced chances of a result even away from home. The hosts’ two home games in that stretch yielded five goals and just one conceded. Celtic failed to score in two of their last five outings; that limits their prospects of answering sustained pressure rather than merely resisting it.
Selection also matters. Cameron Carter-Vickers is out and Jota is not registered for the Europa League, while Auston Trusty’s availability gives Celtic a defensive option without guaranteeing a settled back line. Benfica can call on Alexander Bah again, although Enzo Barrenechea’s absence reduces their options. Confirmed starting lineups are unavailable, so the pick does not depend on an assumed formation. A likely score is 2:0 to Benfica.
Betting verdict
W1 1.27 is our selection: Benfica’s reliable scoring and home defensive record make a home victory preferable to a bet requiring a particular goal total.
FAQ
When does Benfica — Celtic kick off?
The match starts on 15.10.2026 at 15:00 (New York), Estadio da Luz (Lisbon).
What is the prediction for Benfica — Celtic?
Our pick is W1 at 1.27.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Benfica win — 76%, draw — 15%, Celtic win — 8%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Vitoriya Gimaraynshhome2:0
- Portuaway1:3
- Milanaway2:0
- Zhil Visentehome3:1
- Moreyrensheaway4:0
- Moteruellaway2:0
- Reyndzhershome0:1
- Ferentsvaroshhome1:3
- Reyndzhersaway0:3
- Sent-Dzhonstonaway1:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ferencvarosi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 29 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 20.11.2012Benfika2:1SeltikLiga Chempionov (Gruppovoy etap)
- 19.09.2012Seltik0:0BenfikaLiga Chempionov (Gruppovoy etap)
- 06.11.2007Seltik1:0BenfikaLiga Chempionov (Gruppovoy etap)
- 24.10.2007Benfika1:0SeltikLiga Chempionov (Gruppovoy etap)
- 01.11.2006Benfika3:0SeltikLiga Chempionov UYEFA. Gruppa F
About the match
- 15 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Estadio da Luz (Lisbon), Lissabon
- Weather: 25° · precip. 0% · wind 1.3 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 14.10 15:10
A clear home favourite, but closer goal markets
The 1X2 market assigns Benfica a 76.3% chance of victory, compared with 15.4% for a draw and 8.3% for Celtic. The home preference matches the contrast in recent results and European starts. There has been no noticeable movement over the past 24 hours.
The goal markets are less decisive: Under 3.5 has a 55.3% probability, while BTTS is almost evenly balanced, with “No” at 50.3%. Benfica's scoring record makes Celtic's defensive organisation central to the total; Celtic's two recent away clean sheets sit alongside two scoreless defeats across their five-game sequence.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Current odds
- 1.27
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 76%
- Market estimate
- 76%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.27
- Potential win
- 27 $
- Status
- pending
