Benfica vs Celtic: UEFA Europa League Match Prediction
Benfica
CelticMatch result
Benfica 4:1 Celtic (3:0, 1:1)
In the UEFA Europa League match, Benfica secured a victory over Celtic with a final score of 4:1. The home side dominated the first half with a 3:0 score, while the second period ended 1:1. Our prediction for a home win (W1) proved accurate, and the bet won.
Our prediction: W1 at 1.27 — the bet won.
Benfica host Celtic at Estadio da Luz in Lisbon on 15 October in the second round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Benfica opened with a win, while Celtic seek their first points. Kick-off is at 15:00 America/New_York time. Dry conditions and a temperature of 24°C are expected.
Benfica: scoring consistency and a strong European start
Recent results and home advantage
Benfica have won four of their last five matches. The sequence includes victories over Moreirense, Gil Vicente and Milan, a defeat at Porto, and a win over Vitoria Guimaraes. Their opening European victory in Milan puts them seventh, level on points with leaders Juventus.
Attacking output and defensive limits
- Benfica scored in all five matches, including the 3:1 defeat at Porto.
- Porto scored three against them.
Availability before selection
Alexander Bah has completed full training and is ready to play. Daniel Banjaki and Jakub Kaminski are out with muscle injuries; Enzo Barrenechea is also injured, while Jayden Umeh missed team training and will not feature.
- Vitoria Guimaraeshome2:0
- Portoaway1:3
- Milanaway2:0
- Gil Vicentehome3:1
- Moreirenseaway4:0
Celtic: a recovery away from home after three defeats
Results and league-phase position
Celtic beat Motherwell 2:0 on Sunday to end a run of three defeats. Across their last five games they recorded two wins, scored five goals and conceded seven. Their European opener ended in a 1:3 home loss to Ferencvaros, leaving them 28th without a point and three points behind the leader. Another round without points would prolong that deficit.
Contrasting home and away returns
- Both recent wins came away, against St Johnstone and Motherwell, with clean sheets in each.
- The other away fixture ended in a 0:3 defeat to Rangers, so Celtic's road results have depended on the opponent.
- Celtic scored in three of five matches, with BTTS in just one; only the Ferencvaros game went Over 3.5 goals.
Returning players and confirmed absences
Cameron Carter-Vickers remains out with a strain, but Auston Trusty is available. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain returns after serving his suspension. Jota is not registered for the Europa League and cannot play. Camilo Duran missed training to be with his partner before the birth of their child; Martin O'Neill hopes the forward can join the squad, but has not confirmed his availability. No probable XI or formation has been announced.
- Motherwellaway2:0
- Rangershome0:1
- Ferencvarosihome1:3
- Rangersaway0:3
- St. Johnstoneaway1:0
Head-to-head
- 20.11.2012Benfica2:1CelticChampions League (Group Stage)
- 19.09.2012Celtic0:0BenficaChampions League (Group Stage)
- 06.11.2007Celtic1:0BenficaChampions League (Group Stage)
- 24.10.2007Benfica1:0CelticChampions League (Group Stage)
- 01.11.2006Benfica3:0CelticUEFA Champions League. Group F
Coaches focus on selection and the challenge ahead
Silva says he will assess player condition, team performance and the opposition before selecting his side. O'Neill says Celtic are looking forward to the fixture and want to meet its challenge. Neither comment specifies a tactical plan, and no independent expert assessment is available.
Line-ups
Benfica
Starting XI: 1. Anatolii Trubin, 2. Clement Lenglet, 6. Alexander Bah, 8. Fredrik Aursnes, 10. Heorhii Sudakov, 11. Dodi Lukebakio, 22. Jhon Duran, 25. Gianluca Prestianni, 26. Samuel Dahl, 36. Joao Palhinha, 44. Tomas Araujo
Substitutes: 3. Alessandro Circati, 14. Vangelis Pavlidis, 16. Manuel Jorge Silva, 18. Leandro Barreiro, 21. Andreas Schjelderup, 24. Samuel Soares, 27. Rafa Silva, 30. Claudio Echeverri, 33. Gabriel Indio, 34. Souffian El Karouani, 72. Anisio Claudio Fernandes Reis Cabral, 88. Tiago Freitas
Coach: Marco Silva
Celtic
Starting XI: 1. Viljami Sinisalo, 6. Auston Trusty, 9. Kasper Hogh, 11. Camilo Duran, 17. Sebastian Tounekti, 18. Oliver Sorensen, 22. Mika Baur, 42. Callum McGregor, 47. Dane Murray, 51. Colby Donovan, 63. Kieran Tierney
Substitutes: 3. Jordan Mvula Lotomba, 5. Liam Scales, 8. Benjamin Nygren, 14. Luke McCowan, 19. Callum Osmand, 21. Alexander Oxlade-Chamberlain, 23. Haissem Hassan, 26. Sam Johnstone, 49. James Forrest, 56. Anthony Ralston, 62. Lucas Clearie, 65. Liam Kennedy
Coach: Martin O'Neill
Our pick for Lisbon
Our bet is W1 1.27. Benfica’s scoring record is the main reason to back them at Estadio da Luz: 12 goals across their last five matches, with no blanks, means Celtic must contain an attack that has produced chances of a result even away from home. The hosts’ two home games in that stretch yielded five goals and just one conceded. Celtic failed to score in two of their last five outings; that limits their prospects of answering sustained pressure rather than merely resisting it.
Selection also matters. Cameron Carter-Vickers is out and Jota is not registered for the Europa League, while Auston Trusty’s availability gives Celtic a defensive option without guaranteeing a settled back line. Benfica can call on Alexander Bah again, although Enzo Barrenechea’s absence reduces their options. Confirmed starting lineups are unavailable, so the pick does not depend on an assumed formation. A likely score is 2:0 to Benfica.
Betting verdict
W1 1.27 is our selection: Benfica’s reliable scoring and home defensive record make a home victory preferable to a bet requiring a particular goal total.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Vitoria Guimaraeshome2:0
- Portoaway1:3
- Milanaway2:0
- Gil Vicentehome3:1
- Moreirenseaway4:0
- Motherwellaway2:0
- Rangershome0:1
- Ferencvarosihome1:3
- Rangersaway0:3
- St. Johnstoneaway1:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 6 |
| 3 | Benfica | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 4 | Besiktas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:3 | 6 |
| 32 | Olympique de Marseille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 33 | Celtic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 | Ararat - Armenia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:7 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 20.11.2012Benfica2:1CelticChampions League (Group Stage)
- 19.09.2012Celtic0:0BenficaChampions League (Group Stage)
- 06.11.2007Celtic1:0BenficaChampions League (Group Stage)
- 24.10.2007Benfica1:0CelticChampions League (Group Stage)
- 01.11.2006Benfica3:0CelticUEFA Champions League. Group F
About the match
- 15 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Estadio da Luz (Lisbon), Lissabon
Odds
odds before kick-off
A clear home favourite, but closer goal markets
The 1X2 market assigns Benfica a 76.3% chance of victory, compared with 15.4% for a draw and 8.3% for Celtic. The home preference matches the contrast in recent results and European starts. There has been no noticeable movement over the past 24 hours.
The goal markets are less decisive: Under 3.5 has a 55.3% probability, while BTTS is almost evenly balanced, with “No” at 50.3%. Benfica's scoring record makes Celtic's defensive organisation central to the total; Celtic's two recent away clean sheets sit alongside two scoreless defeats across their five-game sequence.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Odds
- 1.27
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 76%
- Market estimate
- 81%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.27
- Potential win
- 27 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.19
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +27 $
