AZ vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: UEFA Europa League Match Prediction
AZ Alkmaar
Hapoel Be'er ShevaAZ host Hapoel Be’er Sheva at AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar on 15 October in the second round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. AZ are seeking their first points; Hapoel opened with a draw. Kick-off is at 12:45 America/New_York time, with dry conditions and 19°C expected.
AZ: home results offer a narrower edge
Recent form and European position
AZ’s last five matches produced two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their latest result was a 2–0 loss at Feyenoord. At home, they drew 1–1 with Willem II and beat Telstar 1–0; away, a 3–2 win at Heerenveen preceded two defeats without scoring. The opening European loss at Sunderland leaves them 26th with no points, three behind leaders Juventus. One continental fixture cannot establish a scoring trend.
Scoring strengths and defensive weaknesses
- AZ scored in three of their last five matches.
- They conceded in four of five matches.
Availability and the coach’s priorities
Kees Smit, Jizz Hornkamp and Stije Resink will miss the match through injury; Smit was hurt on Netherlands youth international duty. Mex Meerdink has resumed training after a minor calf problem.
Coach Leeroy Echteld compared Hapoel’s style to Ajax and Barcelona, while stressing that AZ should concentrate on their own game.
- Feyyenoordaway0:2
- Telstarhome1:0
- Sanderlendaway0:1
- Villem IIhome1:1
- Kherenvenaway3:2
Hapoel Be’er Sheva: momentum from consecutive victories
Momentum and away performance
Hapoel have three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five fixtures, scoring six goals and conceding four. All four goals conceded came in the 4–1 home loss to Maccabi Tel Aviv. They arrive after consecutive victories, with both away appearances in this sequence ending 2–0, against Hapoel Petah Tikva and Ironi Tiberias.
A goalless European opener against Dinamo Zagreb places them 20th with one point, two behind the leaders.
What the recent results reveal
- Hapoel scored in four of five matches, with the European opener their only blank.
- Four consecutive fixtures finished Under 2.5 goals.
- BTTS occurred only against Maccabi Tel Aviv, followed by four clean sheets.
Absence and returning options
Dan Biton will not play because of heart-related problems. Djibril Diop and Eliel Peretz are available again after serving one-match suspensions. No probable starting lineup, formation or further confirmed absences have been announced.
- Ironi Tveriyaaway2:0
- Khapoelʹ Ironi Kirʹyat-Shmonahome1:0
- Dinamo Zagrebhome0:0
- Khapoelʹ Petakh-Tikvaaway2:0
- Makkabi Telʹ-Avivhome1:4
Match arrangements limit visiting support
No away supporters will attend. Alkmaar authorities have also ordered protests to move farther from the stadium because of concerns about disorder.
Our prediction: W1 1.32
AZ are the stronger home-side option despite their uneven overall record. In the last five matches, Alkmaar have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, while their two latest home games brought a 1:1 draw with Willem II and a 1:0 win over Telstar. Their European start was a 0:1 defeat away to Sunderland, so the second-round fixture is a direct chance to earn points in front of their own supporters.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva arrive with better recent results: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, including two consecutive victories. Their away record in that sequence is solid, with 2:0 wins at Hapoel Petah Tikva and Ironi Tiberias, but the market still assigns AZ a 73.5% home-win probability against 9.9% for the visitors. The line has eased slightly toward AZ’s opponents, yet no major fact points to a hidden reversal of that assessment. AZ will miss Kees Smit, Jizz Hornkamp and Stije Resink, while Mexx Meerdink has returned to training. Dan Biton is out for Hapoel; Djibril Diop and Eliel Peretz are available again.
Expected score: 2:0 to AZ.
Conclusion
W1 1.32 is the selection. AZ’s home advantage, the market’s clear preference and Hapoel’s limited attacking output in European competition outweigh the visitors’ recent domestic momentum.
FAQ
When does AZ Alkmaar — Hapoel Be'er Sheva kick off?
The match starts on 15.10.2026 at 12:45 (New York), AFAS (Alkmaar).
What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar — Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
Our pick is W1 at 1.32.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: AZ Alkmaar win — 73%, draw — 17%, Hapoel Be'er Sheva win — 10%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Feyyenoordaway0:2
- Telstarhome1:0
- Sanderlendaway0:1
- Villem IIhome1:1
- Kherenvenaway3:2
- Ironi Tveriyaaway2:0
- Khapoelʹ Ironi Kirʹyat-Shmonahome1:0
- Dinamo Zagrebhome0:0
- Khapoelʹ Petakh-Tikvaaway2:0
- Makkabi Telʹ-Avivhome1:4
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 20 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 21 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 25 | Celta | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
About the match
- 15 October · 12:45 New York
- Venue: AFAS (Alkmaar), Alkmar
- Weather: 19° · precip. 0% · wind 3.9 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 14.10 15:20
A clear favourite, with confidence easing
AZ remain the 1X2 favourite at a margin-free probability of 73.5%, compared with 16.6% for the draw and 9.9% for Hapoel. Over the past 24 hours, the home-win odds have drifted while the draw and away-win odds have shortened, reducing the hosts’ market advantage.
Under 3.5 goals carries a 57.3% probability and has strengthened, while Over 3.5 stands at 42.7% and has weakened. BTTS is almost evenly divided: 50.8% for Yes and 49.2% for No, with neither moving noticeably.
The recent scorelines favour the lower-total direction over a BTTS position, where the market offers little separation.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Current odds
- 1.32
- Odds at prediction
- 1.33
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 73%
- Market estimate
- 73%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.32
- Potential win
- 32 $
- Status
- pending
