Ararat - Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: UEFA Europa League Match Prediction
Ararat - Armenia
AZ AlkmaarArarat-Armenia host AZ Alkmaar at the Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium in the third round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. The hosts have no points after two matches and trail the leader by six points. AZ have three points, with two goals scored and two conceded. Ararat-Armenia need points to close the gap to the leader; AZ are trying to stay within reach of the leading teams.
Ararat-Armenia: reliable domestic response, exposed European defence
Recent form and game profile
Ararat-Armenia have recorded three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five matches. That run includes a home draw with Alashkert, away wins over Shirak, Ararat Yerevan and CSKA Yerevan, and an away defeat to Jagiellonia, where they conceded three goals. Their latest result was a 1-0 win at CSKA.
They have won three of their last four matches, including a 4-0 victory over Ararat Yerevan, but have conceded seven goals in two European league-phase appearances. Bruno Wilson and Zidane Banjaqui have scored their two Europa League goals. Banjaqui has no assists, while Maxence Carlier has one assist.
Squad situation and tactical options
According to media reports, goalkeeper Joao Bravim is doubtful after suffering an injury on October 15. Junior Julio is out injured. Several regular starters were rested in the latest league fixture, reducing their workload before this match. Neither the starting eleven nor the formation is confirmed.
- CSKA Yerevanaway1:0
- Jagiellonia Bialystokaway1:3
- Alashkerthome1:1
- Ararat Yerevanaway4:0
- Shirakaway3:1
AZ Alkmaar: stronger tournament position, uneven away output
Recent results and attacking efficiency
AZ have two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five matches. They scored in three of those games and conceded in four. Their two away league fixtures in that sequence were a defeat at Feyenoord and a draw at Cambuur, where AZ scored twice. At home, they beat Telstar by a single goal and scored twice in victory over Hapoel Be’er Sheva.
AZ conceded four goals across the trips to Cambuur and Feyenoord, two in each match. Peer Koopmeiners and Mexx Meerdink have scored their Europa League goals, while Valdemar Byskov has one assist.
Absences and likely balance
According to media reports, Stije Resink is out with a cruciate ligament injury until January. Kees Smit and Jayden Hornkamp are also unavailable through injury, reducing AZ’s rotation options between European and domestic fixtures. Their starting eleven and formation remain unconfirmed.
AZ hold the stronger tournament position, while Ararat-Armenia are bottom of the listed standings. The hosts’ European defensive record is their clearest weakness entering this fixture.
- Cambuuraway2:2
- Hapoel Be'er Shevahome2:1
- Feyenoordaway0:2
- Telstarhome1:0
- Sunderlandaway0:1
Team news, motivation and match context
Qualification for the league phase has been described as a historic achievement for Ararat-Armenia. Resting regular starters in the previous league round reflects the priority placed on this European fixture against the Dutch side.
AZ have won twice, drawn twice and lost twice across their last six matches. They are among the leading Eredivisie sides following success in the national cup and Super Cup.
Prediction
Our pick is W2 1.55. AZ Alkmaar operates in a stronger domestic competition and arrives with a clear need for points after taking only 3 points from two Europa League matches. The Dutch side has scored 2 and conceded 2 in the league phase, while Ararat-Armenia has 0 points after two games and allowed 7 goals.
Ararat-Armenia’s recent record is respectable: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches across all competitions, including the Europa League and a friendly. That form is less convincing at European level, where the 1:3 loss to Jagiellonia exposed defensive problems. The hosts have also scored only twice in the tournament. AZ have been uneven away from home, but retain the stronger selection. According to media reports, Ararat-Armenia may be without goalkeeper Joao Bravim, while Junior Julio is ruled out; AZ also have unavailable players, but retain the stronger selection.
The market assigns the visitors a 62.5% chance of victory, compared with 16.2% for Ararat-Armenia, and the line has remained stable. That gap is reflected in the market assessment of the teams. A likely score is 0:2.
Conclusion
W2 1.55 is the recommended outcome. AZ Alkmaar should use its superior squad level to control the match and take three points in Yerevan.
FAQ
When does Ararat - Armenia — AZ Alkmaar kick off?
The match starts on 22.10.2026 at 12:45 (New York), Vazgen Sargsyan Republican (Yerevan).
What is the prediction for Ararat - Armenia — AZ Alkmaar?
Our pick is W2 at 1.55.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Ararat - Armenia win — 16%, draw — 21%, AZ Alkmaar win — 63%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- CSKA Yerevanaway1:0
- Jagiellonia Bialystokaway1:3
- Alashkerthome1:1
- Ararat Yerevanaway4:0
- Shirakaway3:1
- Cambuuraway2:2
- Hapoel Be'er Shevahome2:1
- Feyenoordaway0:2
- Telstarhome1:0
- Sunderlandaway0:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | S.C.U. Torreense | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 20 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:4 | 3 |
| 33 | Celtic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 | Ararat - Armenia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 35 | Celje | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:5 | 0 |
About the match
- 22 October · 12:45 New York
- Venue: Vazgen Sargsyan Republican (Yerevan)
- Weather: 13° · precip. 5% · wind 1.6 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 21.10 14:00
Market view and goal expectations
The 1X2 market makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite, assigning the away win a 62.5% probability, compared with 16.2% for a home win and 21.3% for a draw. The line has shown no notable movement over the last twenty-four hours.
Under 3.5 goals is rated at 59.9%, against 40.1% for Over 3.5. BTTS (both teams to score) stands at 57.1%: Ararat-Armenia have scored in all five recent matches, whereas AZ have scored in three of their last five.
Our prediction
- Market
- W2
- Current odds
- 1.55
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 63%
- Market estimate
- 63%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.55
- Potential win
- 55 $
- Status
- pending
