AC Omonia vs Benfica: UEFA Europa League Match Prediction
AC Omonia
BenficaAC Omonia host Benfica at GSP Stadium in Nicosia on 22 October in the third round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Both clubs have six points, level with leaders Juventus, making this a meeting between two perfect starters. Kick-off conditions are mild: 19°C, no rain and light wind.
Omonia: clean European start, less secure at home
Form and scoring patterns
Henning Berg’s side have four wins and a draw in their last five matches. The sequence includes a 1-0 victory over Celta, a 4-1 win against Krasava ENY and successive 3-0 away wins over Karmiotissa and Celje. The latest result, 2-2 against Olympiakos Nicosia, ended the winning run. Omonia sit sixth in the league phase, with four goals scored and none conceded.
Strengths and pressure points
- They scored in all five recent matches.
Availability and attacking contributors
A. Christou is unavailable with an abdominal problem. Senou Coulibaly, Jaden Montnor and Muamer Tankovic each have one tournament goal, spreading the scoring across several players. Berg’s team are unbeaten in seven official matches, but their domestic fixture was on 19 October.
- Olympiakos Nicosiahome2:2
- Celjeaway3:0
- Karmiotissa Pano Polemidionaway3:0
- Krasava ENYhome4:1
- Celtahome1:0
Benfica: greater attacking output and more recovery time
Recent results and tournament position
Benfica have won four of their last five games. A 3-1 victory over Gil Vicente preceded a 2-0 European win at Milan and a 3-1 defeat at Porto. They then beat Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0 and Celtic 4-1. Marco Silva’s side stand third in the league phase with a 6-1 goal balance, ahead of their hosts on goal difference.
Where the visitors are strong—and exposed
- Benfica scored in every match of the five-game sequence and kept two clean sheets.
- Their two away fixtures produced three goals for and three against, with sharply contrasting results.
- BTTS occurred in three of five games; the same number finished Over 2.5 goals.
- Only two defeats in 17 matches show how rarely their wider run has been interrupted.
Absences and squad management
Barrenechea is ruled out, while J. Kamiński has a muscle injury. Alexander Bah, Jhon Duran and Vangelis Pavlidis each have one Europa League goal. Trubin is receiving playing time as the club seeks to protect his market value amid uncertainty over his future; this does not establish a confirmed selection here. With no domestic round after Celtic, the regular starters have had a full week to recover.
- Celtichome4:1
- Vitoria Guimaraeshome2:0
- Portoaway1:3
- Milanaway2:0
- Gil Vicentehome3:1
Preparation matters more than public predictions
The main pre-match contrast is the recovery schedule: Omonia must manage a shorter turnaround, while Benfica have had more preparation time. The visitors remain among Portugal’s league leaders under Silva. No expert match opinions or confirmed line-ups have been supplied, so tactical changes and rotation cannot be treated as settled.
Our forecast
Our pick is W2 1.41. Benfica began the Europa League with two wins, including a 2:0 away success against Milan, and then beat Celtic 4:1. The Lisbon side has had a full week to prepare and recover after the Celtic match, while AC Omonia played Olympiakos Nicosia on 19 October. That shorter turnaround matters against an opponent whose attacking output has reached six goals in two European fixtures.
Omonia’s recent record is strong: four wins and one draw in the last five, with 13 goals scored and only three conceded. Yet Benfica have won four of their last five, score in all five, and have lost only twice in their last 17 matches in all competitions. The market assigns the visitors a 68.8% chance of winning, matching the gap in European production and preparation time. Барренечеа and J. Kamiński are unavailable for Benfica, while A. Christou misses out for Omonia. The expected score is 1:2 to Benfica.
Conclusion
W2 1.41 is the selection. Omonia’s unbeaten run keeps the contest competitive, but Benfica’s two European victories, longer recovery period and only two defeats in 17 matches make the away win the stronger outcome.
FAQ
When does AC Omonia — Benfica kick off?
The match starts on 22.10.2026 at 15:00 (New York), GSP (Nicosia).
What is the prediction for AC Omonia — Benfica?
Our pick is W2 at 1.41.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: AC Omonia win — 13%, draw — 19%, Benfica win — 69%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Olympiakos Nicosiahome2:2
- Celjeaway3:0
- Karmiotissa Pano Polemidionaway3:0
- Krasava ENYhome4:1
- Celtahome1:0
- Celtichome4:1
- Vitoria Guimaraeshome2:0
- Portoaway1:3
- Milanaway2:0
- Gil Vicentehome3:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 6 |
| 3 | Benfica | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 4 | Besiktas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:3 | 6 |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 6 | AC Omonia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 6 |
| 7 | Ferencvarosi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
About the match
- 22 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: GSP (Nicosia), Nikosiya
- Weather: 19° · precip. 0% · wind 1.2 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 21.10 15:10
Market favours Benfica, with a closer scoring debate
Benfica are clear favourites in the 1X2 market, assigned a 68.8% chance of an away win. Their stronger European scoring return and longer recovery window help explain that assessment, despite Omonia’s unbeaten run. The line has shown no notable movement over the past 24 hours.
The goals market leans towards Over 2.5 at 60.3%, while BTTS is more evenly balanced, with “Yes” at 52%. Both attacks have scored consistently, but Omonia have yet to concede in this league phase. The market is more confident about total goals than about both teams scoring.
Our prediction
- Market
- W2
- Current odds
- 1.41
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 69%
- Market estimate
- 69%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.41
- Potential win
- 41 $
- Status
- pending
