Liverpool — Chelsea match forecast: England League Cup

Liverpool host Chelsea at Anfield in the League Cup round of sixteen on 28 October. Liverpool have won four straight matches, while Chelsea lost to Tottenham in their latest game. Both teams have scored in recent head-to-head meetings, and Liverpool have fewer selection concerns before kickoff.

Team news raises the weight of the absences

Andoni Iraola confirmed Szoboszlai’s absence and said Wirtz’s ankle problem did not appear serious. Liverpool’s list removes several defensive and attacking options, while Wirtz’s availability preserves an important creative outlet. The injuries affect positions where rotation is valuable in a cup tie.

Habi Alonso described Joao Pedro as a key player and said Chelsea must remain competitive without him. Palmer’s suspension removes another major attacking influence after the Tottenham defeat. Alonso called James’s problem minor, but his participation remains uncertain.

Both Teams To Score - Yes 1.4

Liverpool come into the League Cup round of 16 with four consecutive wins and 14 goals across their last five matches, but they also conceded in four of those games. The defensive absences of Giovanni Leoni, Conor Bradley, Jeremie Frimpong and goalkeeper Vitezslav Jaros reduce their depth, while Dominik Szoboszlai is also unavailable. Florian Wirtz is fit, preserving Liverpool’s main creative option.

Chelsea have scored in three of their last five matches and conceded in four, including three goals at Brentford and two against Tottenham. Their attack is weakened by the injuries to Joao Pedro and Jamie Gittens, while Cole Palmer is suspended. Even so, Chelsea have scored 10 goals in four League Cup matches, and the long-term head-to-head record shows Liverpool and Chelsea often exchanging goals: Liverpool scored and conceded in four of the last eight meetings. The market rates Both Teams To Score - Yes at 66.4%, the strongest probability among the listed outcomes. Expected score: 2:1.

Conclusion

Our pick is Both Teams To Score - Yes 1.4. Liverpool’s attacking form should create chances at Anfield, while their absences give Chelsea a realistic route to scoring.

Market view and available betting lines

The market makes Liverpool the favourite, assigning the home win a 43.9% probability. The line has shortened toward Liverpool during the last twenty-four hours, while the draw and Chelsea prices have moved away from those outcomes. This is a moderate home preference: Chelsea still carry a 31.2% estimated chance, and the draw stands at 24.8%.

For goals, the market gives the lower total outcome a 55.8% probability and the higher total outcome 44.2%. Both teams to score is assessed at 66.4%. A goal from each side is therefore considered more likely than a very high total.