Everton vs Newcastle United Match Forecast in the League Cup
Everton
Newcastle UnitedEverton host Newcastle United at Hill Dickinson in the League Cup round of sixteen. This is Everton’s first Premier League opponent in the competition; Newcastle arrive having played four tournament matches.
Everton: defensive base under pressure
Everton’s last five matches brought two wins, one draw and two defeats. They beat Wolverhampton Wanderers and Ipswich Town at home without conceding before losing their latest two games: 0:2 at home to Chelsea and 0:2 away to Arsenal.
Strengths, weaknesses and available players
- Everton have won both League Cup matches, scoring five goals and conceding none; BTTS failed in both.
- Their home tournament record is one win from one match, with one goal scored and none conceded.
- Across their latest five matches, they scored in three and conceded in three.
Vitaliy Mykolenko is expected to miss the game with another injury. Jarrad Branthwaite missed the Arsenal match after a suspected concussion. Jack Grealish has been unwell but has a stronger chance of appearing than Branthwaite.
- Arsenalaway0:2
- Chelseahome0:2
- Hull Cityaway2:2
- Ipswich Townhome1:0
- Wolverhampton Wanderershome1:0
Newcastle United: greater attacking volume, less defensive control
Newcastle’s last five matches produced two wins and three defeats. Their away defeats to Leeds United and Coventry City both finished 1:4, before a 2:0 win at Crystal Palace in their latest match. They scored in four of those five games and conceded in four. That scoring frequency will test an Everton defence missing players, but Newcastle have also allowed opponents repeated opportunities.
Tournament record and squad situation
- Newcastle have two wins and two defeats in this League Cup campaign, scoring five goals and conceding seven.
- Away from home in the competition, they have one win and one loss, with two goals scored and three conceded.
- BTTS occurred in two of four tournament matches; Newcastle kept one clean sheet.
Tino Livramento, William Osula, Joelinton, Dan Burn, Anthony Elanga and Ewen Jaouen are unavailable through injury. Jacob Ramsey remains doubtful as he recovers from a thigh problem.
- Crystal Palaceaway2:0
- Aston Villahome0:1
- Coventry Cityaway1:4
- Hull Cityhome2:1
- Leeds Unitedaway1:4
Head-to-head record favours neither side clearly
Across ten official meetings in the last five years, Everton and Newcastle have four wins each, with two draws.
Everton won 3:0 at home in December 2023 and 1:0 away in May 2025. Newcastle won 4:1 at Everton in both April 2023 and November 2025. The latest official meeting ended in a 3:2 away win for Everton.
- 12.08.2026Newcastle United1:3EvertonClub Friendlies
- 28.02.2026Newcastle United2:3EvertonEngland. Premier League
- 29.11.2025Everton1:4Newcastle UnitedEngland. Premier League
- 25.05.2025Newcastle United0:1EvertonEngland. Premier League
- 05.10.2024Everton0:0Newcastle UnitedEngland. Premier League
Team news and motivation before the cup tie
Everton were unbeaten in their first eight matches of the season before the Chelsea and Arsenal defeats. This tie offers a chance to respond to those league setbacks.
Our goal-market pick
For Everton against Newcastle at Hill Dickinson, our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.35. Newcastle have conceded in four of their last five matches, allowing ten goals overall. With Tino Livramento and Dan Burn sidelined by knee and ankle injuries, respectively, the visitors have fewer defensive options to address those problems.
Everton have scored in six of the last eight official meetings, including three goals in the latest encounter in February. That supports targeting their attack rather than the match result, although two consecutive scoreless outings limit confidence. Jack Grealish is also doubtful through illness; confirmed line-ups are unavailable. The selection needs Everton to score twice to win, while exactly one goal returns the stake. A projected score of 2:1 fits that threshold without requiring a clean sheet from the hosts.
Final assessment
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.35 targets Newcastle’s weakened defence, with a refund if Everton score once. Everton’s recent attacking blanks make this a measured selection rather than a high-confidence call.
FAQ
When does Everton — Newcastle United kick off?
The match starts on 29.10.2026 at 15:45 (New York), Hill Dickinson (Liverpool).
What is the prediction for Everton — Newcastle United?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.35.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Everton win — 42%, draw — 28%, Newcastle United win — 30%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Arsenalaway0:2
- Chelseahome0:2
- Hull Cityaway2:2
- Ipswich Townhome1:0
- Wolverhampton Wanderershome1:0
- Crystal Palaceaway2:0
- Aston Villahome0:1
- Coventry Cityaway1:4
- Hull Cityhome2:1
- Leeds Unitedaway1:4
Head-to-head
- 12.08.2026Newcastle United1:3EvertonClub Friendlies
- 28.02.2026Newcastle United2:3EvertonEngland. Premier League
- 29.11.2025Everton1:4Newcastle UnitedEngland. Premier League
- 25.05.2025Newcastle United0:1EvertonEngland. Premier League
- 05.10.2024Everton0:0Newcastle UnitedEngland. Premier League
About the match
- 29 October · 15:45 New York
- Venue: Hill Dickinson (Liverpool)
Odds
Odds updated 28.10 16:00
Market balance and goal expectations
The 1X2 market makes Everton narrow favourites: the estimated probabilities are 41.7% for a home win, 28.1% for a draw and 30.2% for an away win. The line has shown no notable movement over the last twenty-four hours.
The market probability is 52.5% for Over 2.5 and 47.5% for Under 2.5. BTTS Yes is priced at 57.1%, against 42.9% for BTTS No.
Newcastle’s defensive record supports the goals markets, but Everton’s cup defending and Newcastle’s tournament scoring average of fewer than two goals per match weaken the case for Over 2.5.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.35
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 69%
- Market estimate
- 69%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match