Mushuc Runa vs Delfin: Ecuador Serie A Match Prediction
Mushuc Runa
DelfinMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (0.5) 1.26 pending
Mushuc Runa host Delfin at Bellavista in Ambato in the sixth round of the Ecuadorian Serie A relegation phase. Mushuc Runa are twelfth with 40 points, while Delfin are fourteenth with 38. Tecnico Universitario have 37 and Orense Sporting Club 39, leaving little separation in the fight to avoid moving closer to relegation.
Mushuc Runa: home record against recent defensive problems
Form, structure and performance profile
Mushuc Runa have not won in their last five matches: two draws and three defeats. They scored in four of those games but conceded in all five, and are on a two-match losing run. Those results include a 2:3 home defeat by Manta, a 0:3 loss away to Tecnico Universitario, a 1:1 home draw with Orense Sporting Club, a 2:3 defeat away to Delfin and a 1:1 draw with Deportivo Cuenca.
The season figures are stronger at Bellavista than away. Across 17 home league matches, Mushuc Runa have 6 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats, scoring 19 and conceding 18. Overall, they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with both teams scoring in 21 of 35 matches and a clean sheet in 11. Their home defeat rate is low, but they have conceded in five consecutive matches.
- Home balance: 6 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses.
- Home goal difference: 19 scored, 18 conceded.
- Both teams scored in 21 of 35 league matches.
- Three listed leading players, Biodzho, Kaysedo and Tufino, have one goal each in the competition.
Squad availability
- Mantahome2:3
- Tecnico Universitarioaway0:3
- Orense Sporting Clubhome1:1
- Delfinaway2:3
- Deportivo Cuencaaway1:1
Delfin: weak away numbers and a low-scoring attack
Recent results and tactical tendencies
Delfin have taken two wins and suffered three defeats in their last five matches. They found the net in only two games and conceded in all five. Their latest outing was a 0:2 away defeat to Independiente del Valle in the Ecuador Cup. The sequence also includes a 3:1 home win over Deportivo Cuenca, a 0:3 home defeat to Independiente del Valle, a 0:4 loss away to Orense Sporting Club and a 4:2 home victory over Manta.
The away record is the main concern: one win, five draws and eleven defeats in 17 league matches, with 10 goals scored and 26 conceded. Delfin average only 0.86 goals per league game and have exceeded the two-goal match total in 11 of 35 fixtures. Both teams scored in 14 matches, while eight ended with a Delfin clean sheet. Ayunta leads the scoring list with two goals; Luna D. has one goal and two assists, and Sunʹiga has one goal and one assist.
Squad availability
- Independiente del Valleaway0:2
- Deportivo Cuencahome3:1
- Independiente del Vallehome0:3
- Orense Sporting Clubaway0:4
- Mantahome4:2
Head-to-head record favors the hosts in Ambato
Across 12 official meetings over the last five years, Mushuc Runa have won 4 times, drawn once and lost 7 times. Their recent home record is stronger: listed home results against Delfin include wins by 2:0, 5:0, 2:0 and 1:0. The latest encounter, played at Delfin on 9 October, ended 3:2 to the hosts.
Four ended with Mushuc Runa keeping a clean sheet, while the most recent meeting was the only one in that sequence in which both sides scored.
- 09.10.2026Delfin3:2Mushuc RunaEcuador. Serie A (Relegation Group)
- 28.08.2026Mushuc Runa1:0DelfinEcuador. Serie A
- 03.05.2026Delfin1:0Mushuc RunaEcuador. Serie A
- 15.06.2025Delfin3:1Mushuc RunaEcuador. Serie A
- 17.02.2025Mushuc Runa2:0DelfinEcuador. Serie A
Team news and motivation before kickoff
No fresh news, injury reports, suspensions, expert opinions or confirmed lineups are available for either side. Mushuc Runa are two points above Delfin, while the gap between Delfin and Tecnico Universitario is only one point. Mushuc Runa need to stop their losing run, and Delfin need to improve an away record of one win, five draws and eleven defeats.
The forecast is around 20°C with no expected rain, although wind gusts may reach 12.4 m/s. Mushuc Runa have scored more effectively at home, while Delfin have scored only 10 times in 17 away league matches.
Before kickoff
Mushuc Runa face Delfin at Bellavista with two points separating them in the relegation phase. No fresh match information was found for this update.
The market has shifted toward the hosts over the last 24 hours: their win probability is now 56.3%, while Delfin’s is 17.7%. That strengthens the home-side preference, but does not make a home victory the best way to approach this match.
Our goals selection
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.36. Mushuc Runa have won their last four home meetings with Delfin, scoring at least twice in three. The distinction matters for this line: two home goals win the bet, while exactly one returns the stake.
Delfin have conceded 26 goals in 17 away league matches and have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five games across all competitions. Those weaknesses support targeting the home attack rather than relying on the final result. Mushuc Runa scored in four of their last five outings, although their season total of 19 goals in 17 home fixtures argues against expecting a rout. Their recent defensive problems also make a result-based bet less attractive: they can reach the scoring target without controlling the whole contest. A plausible score is 2-1.
Final betting view
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.36 is the preferred selection: it targets Delfin’s away defensive weakness and includes a stake return if Mushuc Runa finish with exactly one goal.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Mantahome2:3
- Tecnico Universitarioaway0:3
- Orense Sporting Clubhome1:1
- Delfinaway2:3
- Deportivo Cuencaaway1:1
- Independiente del Valleaway0:2
- Deportivo Cuencahome3:1
- Independiente del Vallehome0:3
- Orense Sporting Clubaway0:4
- Mantahome4:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportivo Cuenca | 36 | 13 | 8 | 15 | 33:42 | 47 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa | 35 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 41:49 | 40 |
| 13 | Orense Sporting Club | 36 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 43:53 | 39 |
| 14 | Delfin | 35 | 10 | 8 | 17 | 30:41 | 38 |
| 15 | Tecnico Universitario | 35 | 11 | 4 | 20 | 34:47 | 37 |
| 16 | Manta | 35 | 8 | 6 | 21 | 25:51 | 30 |
Head-to-head
- 09.10.2026Delfin3:2Mushuc RunaEcuador. Serie A (Relegation Group)
- 28.08.2026Mushuc Runa1:0DelfinEcuador. Serie A
- 03.05.2026Delfin1:0Mushuc RunaEcuador. Serie A
- 15.06.2025Delfin3:1Mushuc RunaEcuador. Serie A
- 17.02.2025Mushuc Runa2:0DelfinEcuador. Serie A
About the match
- 9 November · 13:00 New York
- Venue: Bellavista (Ambato)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view and price formation
The market makes Mushuc Runa the clear favorite, assigning the home win a 55.5% probability, compared with 25.4% for a draw and 19% for an away win. The line has shown no notable movement over the last 24 hours, reflecting the hosts’ venue advantage against Delfin’s poor away record despite Mushuc Runa’s recent slump.
The total-goals market is slightly tilted toward Under 2.5 at 53.3%, while Over 2.5 stands at 46.7%. The split on both teams scoring is similarly narrow: “Yes” is assessed at 48% and “No” at 52%. Mushuc Runa’s recent defensive concessions conflict with Delfin’s low away scoring rate. The listed 1X2 margin is 7%.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Odds
- 1.36
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Market estimate
- 68%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.36
- Potential win
- 36 $
- Status
- pending
