CSKA Sofia — AS Monaco match prediction: UEFA Conference League
CSKA Sofia
AS MonacoMatch result
CSKA Sofia 1:2 AS Monaco (0:2, 1:0)
AS Monaco secured a victory against CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Conference League match with a final score of 1:2. AS Monaco built their lead in the first half (0:2), while CSKA Sofia pulled one back in the second half (1:0). Our prediction for an away win (W2) was fully successful, and the bet won.
Our prediction: W2 at 1.51 — the bet won.
CSKA Sofia host AS Monaco at Vasil Levski in the opening round of the UEFA Conference League league phase. Both start on zero points, so the immediate prize is an early foothold in the standings. Conditions in Sofia should be dry, with a temperature of 11°C and wind of 2.8 m/s.
CSKA Sofia: scoring freely, conceding regularly
Recent results and venue split
CSKA arrive with four wins and a draw from five matches. Their latest result was a 3–2 away victory over CSKA Sofia 1948. That is a productive run, although one home appearance offers limited evidence of a distinct advantage in Sofia.
Attacking output and defensive exposure
- CSKA scored in all five matches.
- They conceded in four, with the 2–0 win at Lokomotiv Sofia their only clean sheet.
Availability and selection
Jean-Philippe Gbamin missed training through injury and is doubtful. His availability is the principal selection issue confirmed for CSKA.
- CSKA Sofia 1948away3:2
- Lokomotiv Plovdivaway1:1
- Lokomotiv Sofiaaway2:0
- Arda Kardzhalihome4:1
- Levski Sofiaaway4:2
Monaco: consistent goals, mixed competitive results
Form at home and away
Monaco are also unbeaten across their last five outings, with three wins and two draws. That sequence includes a 2–0 friendly victory over Pisa. Away from home, they beat Paris Saint-Germain 2–1 and drew 1–1 at Strasbourg. Their latest match was a 2–2 home draw with Toulouse.
Production and defensive limits
- Monaco scored in every match.
- They conceded in all four competitive games; their sole clean sheet came in the friendly.
- Three of the five matches finished Over 2.5 goals, while BTTS occurred in four.
Defensive absence and returning options
Eric Dier is out with muscular discomfort in his right thigh and has been omitted from the squad. Mamadou Coulibaly has recovered and returns to the group. Denis Zakaria says he feels well and is ready to play provided there is no health risk. These updates widen the available options without confirming a starting XI or tactical shape.
- Toulousehome2:2
- Pisahome2:0
- RC Lenshome2:1
- Strasbourgaway1:1
- Paris Saint-Germainaway2:1
Head-to-head
- 15.12.2005AS Monaco2:1CSKA SofiaUEFA Europa League. Group stage
Coaches emphasise ambition rather than status
Markus Gisdol wants CSKA to play bravely and commit fully to pursuing victory. Filipe Luis rejects the favourite label for Monaco and expects a difficult assignment in Sofia. Vanderson has likewise stressed a serious approach and the intention to begin the tournament with a win. No separate expert opinions have been supplied.
The pre-match table places Monaco third and CSKA 13th, but neither has played: those positions do not represent a performance gap. No independent team-strength comparison is available to quantify that gap.
Line-ups
CSKA Sofia
Starting XI: 2. David Samuel Custodio Lima, 4. Dinis Almeida, 6. Bruno Andre Cavaco Jordao, 7. Max Ebong Ngome, 8. Stefano Sensi, 9. Santiago Leandro Godoy, 17. Angelo Martino, 21. Fedor Lapoukhov, 28. Ioannis Pittas, 32. Francisco Rodriguez, 38. Leonardo Pereira Dos Santos
Substitutes: 10. Joel Zwarts, 14. Teodor Ivanov, 19. Andrey Yordanov, 25. Dimitar Evtimov, 30. Petko Panayotov, 31. Daniel Nikolov, 34. Vasil Kaymakanov, 67. Catalin Itu, 91. Aleks Tunchev, 94. Sibiry Keita, 99. James Etoo
Coach: Markus Gisdol
AS Monaco
Starting XI: 1. Lukas Hradecky, 4. Jordan Teze, 8. Lamine Camara, 13. Christian Mawissa Elebi, 17. Stanis Idumbo Muzambo, 18. Takumi Minamino, 22. Mohammed Salisu, 29. Paris Brunner, 31. Anssumane Fati, 37. Edan Diop, 72. Sadibou Sane
Substitutes: 2. Vanderson de Oliveira Campos, 6. Denis Zakaria, 7. Mathys Detourbet, 10. Aleksandr Golovin, 11. Matthis Abline, 14. Mika Bierith, 16. Philipp Kohn, 19. Pape Cabral, 20. Flavio Nazinho, 28. Mamadou Coulibaly, 46. Anis Soubeir, 49. Ilane Toure
Coach: Filipe Luis
Our pick for the Sofia opener
Our selection is W2 1.51. Monaco's strongest argument is their 2–1 away win over Paris Saint-Germain: they have already beaten stronger opposition on the road than CSKA face domestically. The visitors have shown attacking output in their recent games. Against a defence that conceded in four of five games, that attacking output favours Monaco.
The squad situation also supports the visitors: Denis Zakaria says he is ready to play provided there is no health risk, while Mamadou Coulibaly returns to the squad. CSKA's Jean-Philippe Gbamin is doubtful after missing training through injury. Eric Dier is absent, so a clean sheet is not central to this selection. Vanderson's stated intention to start the tournament with a victory also counters any suggestion of a casual approach. Predicted score: 1–2.
Final betting verdict
W2 1.51 is the call, with Monaco's demonstrated away threat outweighing the defensive risk. CSKA's scoring threat makes this a competitive fixture rather than a comfortable assignment.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- CSKA Sofia 1948away3:2
- Lokomotiv Plovdivaway1:1
- Lokomotiv Sofiaaway2:0
- Arda Kardzhalihome4:1
- Levski Sofiaaway4:2
- Toulousehome2:2
- Pisahome2:0
- RC Lenshome2:1
- Strasbourgaway1:1
- Paris Saint-Germainaway2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lugano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 9 | AS Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 10 | Hajduk Split | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 27 | Lincoln Red Imps | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 29 | AGF Aarhus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 15.12.2005AS Monaco2:1CSKA SofiaUEFA Europa League. Group stage
About the match
- 15 October · 12:45 New York
- Venue: Vasil Levski (Sofia), Sofiya
Odds
odds before kick-off
Monaco favoured, but support has softened
The margin-adjusted 1X2 assessment makes Monaco favourites at 62.8%, against 16.1% for CSKA and 21.1% for a draw. Over the past 24 hours, the away-win price has drifted while the home-win and draw prices have shortened. Monaco retain a clear lead in market confidence, though the movement has reduced it.
Over 2.5 goals carries a 57.2% assessment, but the line has moved towards Under. BTTS is assessed at 53.8% and has attracted support. The distinction matters: the market has become more receptive to both teams scoring while easing its expectation of a higher overall total.
Our prediction
- Market
- W2
- Odds
- 1.51
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 63%
- Market estimate
- 65%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.51
- Potential win
- 51 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.47
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +51 $
