AS Monaco vs Freiburg: UEFA Conference League Prediction
AS Monaco
FreiburgAS Monaco host Freiburg at Stade Louis II on 22 October in the second round of the UEFA Conference League league phase. Both won their opening matches and have three points, level with leaders Brighton; Freiburg are seventh and Monaco ninth. Kick-off is at 15:00 America/New_York. Dry conditions and 18°C are expected.
Monaco: home scoring offers a platform
Recent results and venue split
Monaco’s last five matches produced three wins, one draw and one defeat. They beat Lens and Pisa, drew with Toulouse, won at CSKA Sofia and lost to Lorient.
Attacking consistency, limited clean sheets
Monaco scored in four of five matches and conceded in four. Toulouse scored twice against Monaco, showing that two home goals have not always been enough to win.
Brunner available as absences narrow the options
Stanis Idumbo and Eric Dier will miss the match through injury. Paris Brunner returns from a domestic suspension and is available in Europe. He scored one goal and supplied one assist in the tournament opener, while Anssumane Fati also scored. Idumbo provided an assist in that match, so his absence removes a contributor from Monaco’s opening-round attack. Small-scale rotation is possible before two important league fixtures.
- Lorientaway0:1
- CSKA Sofiaaway2:1
- Toulousehome2:2
- Pisahome2:0
- RC Lenshome2:1
Freiburg: goals at both ends of the pitch
A productive run interrupted in Leverkusen
Freiburg also have three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five matches. They drew at Frankfurt, beat Luzern, Schalke and Jablonec, then lost at Bayer Leverkusen. Luzern was a friendly.
No shutouts despite regular scoring
Freiburg scored and conceded in all five matches, and every game finished with Over 2.5 goals. They conceded twice in four matches, including the European opener against Jablonec. Opponents have repeatedly scored more than once, making defensive control a key issue away from home.
Muslija missing from the available options
Florent Muslija is out through injury. Maximilian Eggestein and Vincenzo Grifo each scored in Freiburg’s first league-phase appearance, while Lukas Kuebler supplied an assist. Confirmed starting line-ups and formations for either team have not been announced.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway1:2
- Jablonechome3:2
- Schalke 04home2:1
- Luzernhome4:2
- Eintracht Frankfurtaway2:2
Preparation and the response to domestic defeats
Both teams lost on 18 October, giving them the same interval between their domestic and European matches. Freiburg’s defeat ended their unbeaten start to the season. Coach Julian Schuster criticised supporters after the tennis-ball protest during the Leverkusen match. No match-specific expert opinions are available.
Our Forecast
Our bet is Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.57. Freiburg have scored in all five of their latest matches, but conceded in each of them as well. Their recent European win over Jablonec finished 3:2, while the trip to Leverkusen ended 1:2, showing both the attacking output and defensive vulnerability expected from this matchup.
Monaco have scored in four of their last five games and conceded in four, including two goals allowed against Toulouse and one in the Conference League win at CSKA Sofia. The home side also regain Paris Brunner after suspension, strengthening the forward line. Stanis Idumbo is unavailable, while Eric Dier will also miss the match; Freiburg are without Florent Muslija. With both teams on three points after winning their opening league-phase fixtures, neither side lacks tournament motivation. The likely score is 2:1 to AS Monaco.
Conclusion
Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.57 is supported by Freiburg’s five-match scoring streak and Monaco’s repeated defensive concessions. The hosts have the narrower market advantage, but the evidence points to goals at both ends rather than a clean-sheet result.
FAQ
When does AS Monaco — Freiburg kick off?
The match starts on 22.10.2026 at 15:00 (New York), Louis II (Monaco).
What is the prediction for AS Monaco — Freiburg?
Our pick is Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.57.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: AS Monaco win — 43%, draw — 27%, Freiburg win — 30%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Lorientaway0:1
- CSKA Sofiaaway2:1
- Toulousehome2:2
- Pisahome2:0
- RC Lenshome2:1
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway1:2
- Jablonechome3:2
- Schalke 04home2:1
- Luzernhome4:2
- Eintracht Frankfurtaway2:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sint-Truidense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 7 | Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 8 | Lugano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 9 | AS Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 10 | Hajduk Split | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
About the match
- 22 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Louis II (Monaco), Monako
- Weather: 18° · precip. 0% · wind 2.9 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 21.10 15:20
A narrow home preference in the market
Monaco are the 1X2 favourites, with a margin-free market probability of 42.9%, compared with 30.5% for Freiburg and 26.7% for the draw. The market favours Monaco without pricing clear superiority. BTTS is assessed at 59.2%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 55.3%, showing greater confidence in both teams scoring than in a higher total alone. None of the listed markets has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- Both Teams To Score - Yes
- Current odds
- 1.57
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 59%
- Market estimate
- 59%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.57
- Potential win
- 57 $
- Status
- pending