Ajax vs Atalanta: UEFA Conference League Match Prediction
Ajax
AtalantaMore picks
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4) 1.35 void
Match result
Ajax 2:0 Atalanta (0:0, 2:0)
The UEFA Conference League match between Ajax and Atalanta ended in a 2:0 victory for the home team. Following a 0:0 score in the first half, two goals were scored in the second half to make it 2:0. Our bet on Both Teams To Score - Yes lost, as Atalanta did not manage to score.
Our prediction: Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.47 — the bet lost.
Ajax host Atalanta at the Johan Cruyff Arena in Amsterdam on 22 October in the second round of the UEFA Conference League league phase. The hosts are 25th after an opening defeat; the visitors sit fourth with three points. Ajax need points to recover ground, while Atalanta can build on a winning European start.
Ajax: scoring power without defensive control
Recent form and home results
Ajax have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five matches, scoring 14 goals and conceding eight. The five-match list places the win over Willem II at No. 1 and the 5:2 victory at Groningen at No. 5, with draws against Excelsior and N.E.C. and a 1:2 defeat at Hajduk Split in between. Their three home fixtures produced one win and two draws; the two away games brought one win and one defeat.
Where the balance breaks down
- Ajax scored in all five matches across venues and competitions.
- N.E.C.'s 1:1 draw shows that not every match was high-scoring.
Returning players and absences
Viktor Tsygankov, Tolu Arokodare and Thilo Kehrer are expected to return after being rested following Hajduk. Jorthy Mokio scored twice against Groningen, while Julian Brandt improved after moving into the number-ten role, giving Michel a creative option behind the striker. Kasper Dolberg has a serious knee injury; Simon Adingra, Anton Gaaei, Steven Berghuis, Caio Henrique and Daley Blind are also unavailable. Yves Bissouma is not registered for this competition.
- Groningenaway5:2
- Hajduk Splitaway1:2
- N.E.C.home1:1
- Excelsiorhome2:2
- Willem IIhome5:1
Atalanta: home recovery, away vulnerability
The latest five-match sequence
Atalanta have two wins and three defeats. Losses to Cagliari and Juventus were followed by successive 3:1 home wins over Venezia and Pafos, before a 3:2 defeat at Milan. Their two away fixtures both ended in defeat. The European victory leaves them level on points with leaders Brighton, rather than chasing an early deficit.
Attacking response and defensive exposure
- Atalanta scored in four of five matches, with Juventus the only opponent to shut them out.
- They conceded in every game, including both victories; their improved results have not included clean sheets.
European contributors
Gianluca Scamacca and Eljif Elmas each scored in the opening European fixture, while Giacomo Raspadori supplied an assist. Those three attacking players merit attention, but their starting combination is unconfirmed.
- Milanaway2:3
- Pafoshome3:1
- Unione Veneziahome3:1
- Juventusaway0:2
- Cagliari Calciohome1:2
Head-to-head
- 09.12.2020Ajax0:1AtalantaChampions League (Group Stage)
- 27.10.2020Atalanta2:2AjaxChampions League (Group Stage)
Selection questions before kick-off
Ajax have invited Oleksandr Zinchenko to train with the first team; this does not confirm match eligibility or selection. Full probable line-ups, confirmed formations, additional suspension details, Atalanta injury updates and independent expert assessments are unavailable. Both teams last played on 18 October.
Line-ups
Ajax
Starting XI: 1. Marc-Andre ter Stegen, 2. Lucas Rosa, 4. Sofyan Amrabat, 5. Owen Wijndal, 8. Julian Brandt, 10. Oscar Gloukh, 15. Youri Baas, 18. Davy Klaassen, 24. Jorthy Mokio, 30. Aaron Bouwman, 38. Marcos Leonardo
Substitutes: 6. Thilo Kehrer, 11. Viktor Tsygankov, 21. Jofre Torrents, 22. Joeri Heerkens, 26. Maarten Paes, 36. Dies Janse, 43. Rayane Bounida, 49. Diego Pugno, 67. Mohamed Abdalla, 68. Abdellah Ouazane, 99. Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodare
Coach: Miguel Angel Sanchez Munoz
Atalanta
Starting XI: 9. Gianluca Scamacca, 13. Ederson Jose dos Santos Lourenco da Silva, 16. Raul Bellanova, 17. Charles De Ketelaere, 29. Marco Carnesecchi, 31. Thomas Kristensen, 40. Relja Obric, 59. Nicola Zalewski, 70. Gianluca Gaetano, 77. Davide Zappacosta, 99. Eljif Elmas
Substitutes: 8. Mario Pasalic, 10. Lazar Samardzic, 11. Jonathan David Henry Rowe, 41. Javison Idele, 46. Sergej Levak, 47. Lorenzo Bernasconi, 48. Andrea Bonanomi, 51. Mattia Sonzogni, 55. Isaac Isoa, 57. Marco Sportiello, 90. Nikola Krstovic
Coach: Maurizio Sarri
Our goals prediction
Ajax need their first points of the league phase against Atalanta in Amsterdam, and our pick is Both Teams To Score - Yes 1.47. Ajax have scored and conceded in all five recent matches; Atalanta have done so in four of five, conceding in every game. That combination makes goals at both ends a stronger angle than choosing a winner.
Ajax's three home matches in that sequence produced eight goals scored and four conceded: home advantage has not brought defensive control. Atalanta scored eight times across their latest three fixtures, including twice away to Milan. According to media reports, Viktor Tsygankov and Tolu Arokodare are set to return after being rested, adding attacking options for Ajax despite Kasper Dolberg's absence. The main risk is an Atalanta blank, as happened at Juventus, rather than either side suddenly becoming defensively secure. A plausible score is 2:2.
The betting verdict
Both Teams To Score - Yes 1.47 is our selection. Both attacks have recent scoring returns, while neither defence has kept a clean sheet in the five-match sample.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Groningenaway5:2
- Hajduk Splitaway1:2
- N.E.C.home1:1
- Excelsiorhome2:2
- Willem IIhome5:1
- Milanaway2:3
- Pafoshome3:1
- Unione Veneziahome3:1
- Juventusaway0:2
- Cagliari Calciohome1:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mjallby | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | 4 |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 16 | Braga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 09.12.2020Ajax0:1AtalantaChampions League (Group Stage)
- 27.10.2020Atalanta2:2AjaxChampions League (Group Stage)
About the match
- 22 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Johan Cruyff Arena (Amsterdam), Amsterdam
Odds
odds before kick-off
A narrow home lean, stronger goal expectations
Ajax are the market favourites, but their 44.7% home-win probability is below half. Atalanta carry 30.2%, with the draw at 25.1%: the 1X2 market describes a competitive fixture rather than a clear home advantage. These probabilities have shown no notable movement over the last 24 hours.
The goals markets lean more firmly towards scoring: Over 2.5 has a 60.3% probability and BTTS stands at 63%. Support for BTTS has strengthened, while the opposing outcome has drifted; the total-goals line has remained stable. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in its last five matches, matching the stronger goals outlook against the narrower result probabilities.
Our prediction
- Market
- Both Teams To Score - Yes
- Odds
- 1.47
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 63%
- Market estimate
- 67%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.47
- Potential win
- 47 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.38
- Status
- lost
- Profit
- −100 $