Haiti — USA CONCACAF Nations League Match Prediction
Haiti
USAMore picks
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.3 pending
Haiti host USA in Miami on November 14 at 16:30 America/New_York in the first leg of their CONCACAF Nations League quarter-final. Haiti reached this stage through the group phase; USA enter the competition here. With a return leg to follow, the immediate stakes are an aggregate advantage rather than qualification on the night.
Haiti: productive attack, uneven defensive returns
Recent results and venue split
Haiti have three wins and two defeats in their last five matches. Their latest outing was a 2:0 loss at Costa Rica. They finished second in their League A group with nine points from four games and a 9:5 goal difference.
- Both listed home fixtures ended in wins: 3:2 against Trinidad and Tobago and 2:0 against Costa Rica.
Selection and tactical limits
Their scoring record offers evidence of attacking threat, but the away defeats show how quickly defensive concessions can outweigh it. Nominal home status in Miami should not be treated as proof that the two recent home wins will translate directly to this tie.
- Costa Ricaaway0:2
- Dominican Republicaway4:1
- Costa Ricahome2:0
- Trinidad and Tobagohome3:2
- Moroccoaway2:4
USA: four wins, with an away-test caveat
Scoring consistency and defensive improvement
USA followed a 4:1 World Cup defeat by Belgium with friendly wins over Peru, Chile, Mexico and Canada. They found the net every time. The most recent result was a 1:0 victory over Canada.
- USA are on a four-match winning run.
- Successive clean sheets against Mexico and Canada followed concessions in each of the preceding three games.
- Three of the five fixtures went Over 3.5 goals; the latest two stayed Under.
- All five were home fixtures, so this sequence supplies no recent away comparison.
Coaching transition before the tie
According to media reports, Mauricio Pochettino will leave after the two Haiti matches to take charge of Manchester United. He has asked his players to focus on this tie. No confirmed USA lineup, formation, injury or suspension details are available, and no comparable numerical strength measure or USA group placing is supplied.
- Canadahome1:0
- Mexicohome3:0
- Chilehome4:2
- Peruhome4:1
- Belgiumhome1:4
A narrow USA win in the only recent meeting
The sole official meeting in the last five years ended USA 2:1 Haiti at the Gold Cup on June 22, 2025. USA therefore hold the recent head-to-head advantage, but a single match is too small a sample to establish a recurring margin. That encounter featured three goals and both teams scoring.
- 22.06.2025USA2:1HaitiCONCACAF Gold Cup
- 12.07.2021USA1:0HaitiCONCACAF Gold Cup
- 11.07.2015USA1:0HaitiCONCACAF Gold Cup
- 11.07.2009USA2:2HaitiCONCACAF Gold Cup grp. B
- 12.03.2004USA1:1HaitiFriendlies
Pochettino stresses the work already done
In his farewell press conference, Pochettino described leaving as one of the hardest decisions of his career and said the squad combined experience with youth. His assessment was that a foundation for high-level competition had been established; that is the coach's view, not an independent expert verdict on this matchup.
Line-ups
Haiti
Starting XI: 1. Alexandre Pierre, 2. Carlens Arcus, 4. Kayden Pierre, 5. Patrick Nwadike, 8. Martin Experience, 9. Lenny Joseph, 10. Josue Casimir, 11. Louicius Don Deedson, 14. Leverton Pierre, 17. Danley Jean Jacques, 18. Wilson Isidor
Substitutes: 3. Francois Dulysse, 7. Fafa Picault, 12. Jonah Mednard, 13. Duke Lacroix, 15. Ruben Providence, 16. Kenny Quetant, 19. Yassin Fortune, 20. Fernando Ciceron, 21. Dany Jean, 22. Dominique Simon, 23. Josue Duverger
Coach: David Badia
USA
Starting XI: 3. Chris Richards, 4. Tyler Adams, 5. Antonee Robinson, 6. Auston Trusty, 8. Weston McKennie, 10. Christian Pulisic, 14. Sebastian Berhalter, 16. Alex Freeman, 17. Malik Tillman, 18. Diego Kochen, 19. Julian Hall
Substitutes: 1. Matthew Freese, 2. Reed Baker-Whiting, 7. Jack McGlynn, 9. Justin Ellis, 11. Cavan Sullivan, 12. Neil Pierre, 13. Adri Mehmeti, 15. Bryan Reynolds, 20. Folarin Balogun, 21. Mathis Albert, 22. Mark Alexander McKenzie, 23. Brian Schwake
Coach: Mauricio Pochettino
Our pick: USA to score twice
For Haiti versus USA in Miami, our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) 1.23. The visitors scored 12 goals across their four consecutive wins, reaching at least two in three of them. That scoring output makes their own total a more direct target than a winning margin, which would also depend on Haiti's productive attack.
Haiti conceded at least twice in three of their last five matches, so this threshold does not require an unusually poor defensive performance from the hosts. USA also reached it in the teams' sole recent meeting. The main reservation is that all four American wins came in home friendlies: transferring that attacking output to a competitive first leg is not automatic. No confirmed lineups, injuries or suspensions are available to refine the assessment. Our projected score is 1:2.
Final verdict
Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) 1.23 is our selection: USA's recent scoring volume matches Haiti's repeated concessions of two or more goals. The first-leg setting warrants caution, but the bet does not require a high-scoring game from both sides.
FAQ
When does Haiti — USA kick off?
The match starts on 14.11.2026 at 16:30 (New York), Nu (Miami).
What is the prediction for Haiti — USA?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) at 1.23.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Haiti win — 9%, draw — 10%, USA win — 81%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Costa Ricaaway0:2
- Dominican Republicaway4:1
- Costa Ricahome2:0
- Trinidad and Tobagohome3:2
- Moroccoaway2:4
- Canadahome1:0
- Mexicohome3:0
- Chilehome4:2
- Peruhome4:1
- Belgiumhome1:4
Standings · Gruppa A
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curacao | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:5 | 10 |
| 2 | Haiti | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9:5 | 9 |
| 3 | Dominican Republic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:8 | 9 |
| 4 | Costa Rica | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:6 | 6 |
| 5 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 6 | Nicaragua | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4:14 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 22.06.2025USA2:1HaitiCONCACAF Gold Cup
- 12.07.2021USA1:0HaitiCONCACAF Gold Cup
- 11.07.2015USA1:0HaitiCONCACAF Gold Cup
- 11.07.2009USA2:2HaitiCONCACAF Gold Cup grp. B
- 12.03.2004USA1:1HaitiFriendlies
About the match
- 14 November · 16:30 New York
- Venue: Nu (Miami), May·ami
Odds
Odds updated 14.11 16:10
USA favoured despite a shift towards Haiti
The margin-adjusted 1X2 assessment makes USA clear favourites at 72.9%, against 17.2% for the draw and 9.9% for Haiti. Over the last 24 hours, the line has moved towards Haiti and the draw and away from USA. Under 3.5 goals remains favoured at 60.1%, with no notable movement. BTTS is almost evenly balanced, although its recent movement has been towards both sides scoring.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.23
- Odds at prediction
- 1.4
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 66%
- Market estimate
- 75%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.32
- Potential win
- 32 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.23
- Status
- pending
