VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid: UEFA Champions League Prediction
VfB Stuttgart
Atletico MadridVfB Stuttgart host Atletico Madrid at MHP Arena in the third round of the UEFA Champions League league phase. After two matches, Stuttgart are fourth with six points; Atletico are fifteenth with three. The hosts can extend their winning start, while the visitors aim to close the gap to the leaders.
VfB Stuttgart: strong European start, recent setback
Stuttgart have won four of their last five matches. Their two home friendlies brought wins over Heidenheim and Greuther Furth, 3:0 and 5:0 respectively. That run included a 2:0 away win at Paderborn and a 3:0 Champions League victory at Slovan Bratislava before a 0:1 defeat at Hamburger.
Structure, attacking options and absences
- Stuttgart have scored in four of their last five matches.
- They have scored six goals and conceded one in the Champions League.
- Deniz Undav and Ermedin Demirovic have each scored once in the competition; Angelo Stiller has one assist.
Holding midfielder Nicolas Nartey, central defender Ameen Al-Dakhil and winger Tiago Tomas are unavailable. Maximilian Mittelstadt is doubtful after illness, reducing Stuttgart’s options for midfield protection, central defence and width on the left.
- Hamburgeraway0:1
- Slovan Bratislavaaway3:0
- Paderborn 07away2:0
- Greuther Furthhome5:0
- 1. Heidenheimhome3:0
Atletico Madrid: perfect run and controlled concessions
Atletico have won all five of their most recent matches. They beat Osasuna and Real Madrid at home, Alaves away, Manchester United 2:0 in the Champions League, and Espanyol away. They scored in every match and kept clean sheets against Osasuna, Manchester United and Espanyol.
Their away wins finished 2:1 and 1:0, with fewer goals than the 4:0 home victory over Osasuna.
Defensive control with central and midfield losses
- Atletico have scored three goals and conceded two in their opening two Champions League matches.
- Pablo Barrios Rivas and Ademola Lookman have one tournament goal each; Alejandro Baena has one assist.
Central defender Cristian Romero will miss the trip with an adductor injury. Captain Koke is out with a muscular injury to the left hamstring area, leaving Atletico without a central defender and their captain. Their probable starting eleven and tactical system are unconfirmed.
- Espanyolaway1:0
- Manchester Unitedhome2:0
- Deportivo Alavesaway2:1
- Real Madridhome2:1
- Osasunahome4:0
Head-to-head
- 05.08.2018VfB Stuttgart1:1Atletico MadridClub Friendlies
Team news and competitive context
Atletico’s winning streak across all competitions extends to six matches. The Manchester United result was the club’s first victory over an English team at this stage of the Champions League.
No further injuries or suspensions are confirmed.
Our Pick
Atletico Madrid visit Stuttgart after five consecutive wins, including a 2:0 victory over Manchester United. Stuttgart's sequence ended with a 0:1 defeat at Hamburger. Atletico scored in all five games; Stuttgart drew a blank in their latest outing.
Our selection is Asian handicap: Atletico Madrid (0) 1.57. A draw returns the stake. Stuttgart are without defensive midfielder Nicolas Nartey, centre-back Ameen Al-Dakhil and winger Tiago Tomas, while Maximilian Mittelstädt is doubtful. Atletico are missing captain Koke and centre-back Cristian Romero. The visitors kept three clean sheets in their last five, against Manchester United, Espanyol and Osasuna.
Stuttgart have the stronger recent Champions League record. Stuttgart have won two from two with only one goal conceded, but now face a higher-level opponent.
Expected score: Stuttgart 1:2 Atletico Madrid.
Conclusion
Asian handicap: Atletico Madrid (0) 1.57 is the pick: the visitors’ scoring consistency outweighs Stuttgart’s home advantage, with the stake returned on a draw.
FAQ
When does VfB Stuttgart — Atletico Madrid kick off?
The match starts on 20.10.2026 at 15:00 (New York), MHP Arena (Stuttgart).
What is the prediction for VfB Stuttgart — Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Handicap 2 (0) at 1.57.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: VfB Stuttgart win — 30%, draw — 25%, Atletico Madrid win — 45%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Hamburgeraway0:1
- Slovan Bratislavaaway3:0
- Paderborn 07away2:0
- Greuther Furthhome5:0
- 1. Heidenheimhome3:0
- Espanyolaway1:0
- Manchester Unitedhome2:0
- Deportivo Alavesaway2:1
- Real Madridhome2:1
- Osasunahome4:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aston Villa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:2 | 6 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:4 | 6 |
| 14 | Villarreal | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 3 |
| 15 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 16 | Club Brugge | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6:6 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 05.08.2018VfB Stuttgart1:1Atletico MadridClub Friendlies
About the match
- 20 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: MHP Arena (Stuttgart)
- Weather: 11° · precip. 0% · wind 0.5 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 19.10 13:10
Market view and goal expectations
Atletico are the away favourites, with a 45.4% win probability, compared with Stuttgart’s 29.6% and 25% for the draw. The visitors’ recent results support that preference, but the gap is limited by Stuttgart’s home advantage and unbeaten European start.
Under 3.5 goals is assessed at 56.9%, with Over 3.5 at 43.2%. BTTS (both teams to score) is rated at 65.5%. There has been no notable odds movement over the last twenty-four hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.57
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 61%
- Market estimate
- 61%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.57
- Potential win
- 57 $
- Status
- pending
