Sporting Clube de Portugal vs LASK Linz: UEFA Champions League Prediction
Sporting Clube de Portugal
LASK LinzMatch result
Sporting Clube de Portugal 2:3 LASK Linz (1:1, 1:2)
In the UEFA Champions League match, Sporting Clube de Portugal faced LASK Linz, ending in a 2:3 defeat for the home side. The scores by periods were 1:1 and 1:2. Consequently, our bet on a home win (W1) lost.
Our prediction: W1 at 1.22 — the bet lost.
Sporting Clube de Portugal host LASK Linz at Jose Alvalade in Lisbon on 21 October, with kick-off at 15:00 America/New_York time. In the third round of the UEFA Champions League league phase, sixth-placed Sporting are level on points with the leaders and pursuing a third European victory. LASK sit 33rd and are seeking their first points.
Sporting: consistent scoring, fewer clean sheets
Recent results and home production
Sporting have three wins and two draws in their last five matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding five. After draws with Famalicao and Arouca, they won away at Braga 3:1 and RC Lens 2:0. Their two home fixtures in that sequence were the victory over Galatasaray and the Arouca draw.
Across their last five home matches this season, Sporting have scored at least twice in every game.
Where the hosts are strongest
- Sporting scored in all five recent fixtures; three produced at least three goals overall.
- Both teams scored in four of those five games, making clean sheets less consistent than their scoring.
- In Europe, they have scored five goals and conceded one across two victories.
Debast absent from Borges's options
Zeno Debast will miss the match with a muscle injury and is not expected back for at least a couple of weeks. Rui Borges has rotation alternatives and had a free domestic weekend before this fixture. Dumbiya and Suarez Charriz each have a tournament goal, while Irankunda has an assist. A probable XI, formation, suspension list and numerical squad-strength comparison are unavailable.
- RC Lensaway2:0
- Bragaaway3:1
- Aroucahome2:2
- Famalicaoaway1:1
- Galatasarayhome3:1
LASK: attacking output masks defensive losses
A response after two defeats
LASK won 4:0 at Austria Lustenau after defeats by Rapid Wien and Liverpool. Their last five fixtures brought two wins, one draw and two losses, with 12 goals scored and 12 conceded; the sequence includes a friendly victory over First Vienna.
Their two away matches yielded seven goals scored and three conceded, but two games are insufficient to establish an away pattern.
The scoring and conceding balance
- Four of LASK's five recent matches produced at least three goals, with both teams scoring in three.
- The 3:6 defeat by Liverpool combined attacking threat with defensive vulnerability.
- Seven goals conceded in two European games have left LASK six points behind the competition leaders.
Bello ruled out
Bello is injured and will not play. No confirmed replacement, expected formation or suspension details are available. Floker leads LASK's tournament scoring with two goals, Lyubichich R. has one, and Dibango has three assists. Without a probable lineup, Dibango's role in Lisbon remains unclear.
- Austria Lustenauaway4:0
- Liverpoolhome3:6
- Rapid Wienhome0:2
- First Viennahome2:1
- Hartbergaway3:3
Head-to-head
- 01.10.2020Sporting Clube de Portugal1:4LASK LinzUEFA Europa League
- 12.12.2019LASK Linz3:0Sporting Clube de PortugalUEFA Europa League. Group stage
- 03.10.2019Sporting Clube de Portugal2:1LASK LinzUEFA Europa League. Group stage
Preparation favours the hosts
Sporting last played on 13 October, whereas LASK played on 17 October, giving the hosts a longer recovery period. No attributed expert assessment of a specific tactical matchup is available.
Line-ups
Sporting Clube de Portugal
Starting XI: 5. Sergi Altimira, 8. Joao Simoes, 10. Geny Catamo, 19. Nestory Irankunda, 20. Maximiliano Javier Araujo Vilches, 22. Ivan Fresneda, 25. Goncalo Inacio, 30. Kaique, 72. Eduardo Quaresma, 77. Issa Doumbia, 97. Luis Javier Suarez Charris
Substitutes: 1. Rui Silva, 4. Silas Andersen, 7. Fotis Ioannidis, 9. Rafael Ferreira Nel, 13. Georgios Vagiannidis, 21. Pedro Lima Barros, 28. Jesse Derry, 31. Luis Guilherme Lira dos Santos, 50. Diego Henrique Oliveira Rodrigues, 55. Ibrahima Ba, 58. Flavio Goncalves, 73. Eduardo Felicissimo
Coach: Rui Borges
LASK Linz
Starting XI: 1. Lukas Jungwirth, 4. Xavier Mbuyamba, 9. Krystof Danek, 10. Robert Ljubicic, 11. Sasa Kalajdzic, 16. Andres Andrade Cedeno, 20. Kasper Jorgensen, 25. Yvan Dibango, 27. Christoph Lang, 30. Sascha Horvath, 43. Joao Victor Tornich
Substitutes: 3. Miguel Freckleton, 6. Melayro Bogarde, 7. Samuel Adeniran, 8. Moses Usor, 18. Alessandro Schopf, 21. Manoel Verhaeghe, 23. Daniel Elfadli, 29. Florian Flecker, 33. Tobias Schutzenauer, 39. Christof Katzmayr, 45. Nael Kane
Coach: Dietmar Kuhbauer
Our pick: Sporting to take the points
Our bet is W1 1.22. Sporting’s two opening Champions League wins, with five goals scored and one conceded, show why they can punish LASK’s defensive weaknesses. The visitors have lost both European fixtures and conceded seven goals: their need for points does not solve the problem of containing the hosts.
Sporting have scored at least twice in each of their last five home games, so the selection does not depend on an unusually productive attacking display. Their longer recovery period and Rui Borges’s rotation options also favour the hosts. According to media reports, Zeno Debast is out with a muscle injury and LASK will be without Bello. Sporting’s failure to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five games makes a concession credible, but does not outweigh their attacking edge. Predicted score: 3:1.
Final betting view
W1 1.22 is the selection: Sporting’s repeatable home scoring carries more weight than LASK’s recent domestic response. The bet is on the hosts winning, not on their defence shutting out the visitors.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- RC Lensaway2:0
- Bragaaway3:1
- Aroucahome2:2
- Famalicaoaway1:1
- Galatasarayhome3:1
- Austria Lustenauaway4:0
- Liverpoolhome3:6
- Rapid Wienhome0:2
- First Viennahome2:1
- Hartbergaway3:3
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Club Brugge | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 12 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 24 | LASK Linz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah Baku | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:6 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 01.10.2020Sporting Clube de Portugal1:4LASK LinzUEFA Europa League
- 12.12.2019LASK Linz3:0Sporting Clube de PortugalUEFA Europa League. Group stage
- 03.10.2019Sporting Clube de Portugal2:1LASK LinzUEFA Europa League. Group stage
About the match
- 21 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Jose Alvalade (Lisboa)
Odds
odds before kick-off
A clear favourite, a closer goals market
The 1X2 market assigns Sporting an 80.7% chance of winning, the draw 11.9% and LASK 7.4%. All three lines have remained broadly unchanged over the past 24 hours.
Over 3.5 carries a 53% probability, while BTTS is assessed at 55%; neither line has moved noticeably. These narrow majorities offer less market conviction than the home-win assessment, so neither goals bet stands out.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Odds
- 1.22
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 81%
- Market estimate
- 68%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.22
- Potential win
- 22 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.42
- Status
- lost
- Profit
- −100 $
