Roma vs Real Madrid: UEFA Champions League Match Prediction
Roma
Real MadridMatch result
Roma 3:4 Real Madrid (1:1, 2:3)
In the UEFA Champions League match, Real Madrid defeated Roma with a final score of 4-3. The game saw period scores of 1-1 and 2-3. Our prediction of W2 was successful, resulting in a winning bet.
Our prediction: W2 at 1.94 — the bet won.
Roma host Real Madrid at the Olimpico in Rome on 14 October in the second round of the UEFA Champions League league phase. Roma opened with a draw, while Madrid collected three points. Because some clubs have already played twice, the standings do not yet provide a settled hierarchy.
Roma: unbeaten, but short of wins
Recent results and scoring patterns
Roma have two wins and three draws from their last five matches. They beat Atalanta 2–1, drew 1–1 at Fenerbahce, beat Torino 2–0, drew 2–2 with Inter, then finished goalless at Como. They have now drawn two consecutive matches. In Europe, their opening point puts them 22nd, five points behind leaders Barcelona.
Where the hosts are strong and vulnerable
- Roma beat Atalanta 2–1 and drew 2–2 with Inter.
- Roma failed to score in the latest outing.
- Roma's scoring profile differs sharply between home and away matches.
Absences affecting the selection
Bryan Cristante is out with a knee injury, while Mile Svilar will miss the match because of a foot injury. Konstantinos Koulierakis is doubtful with a knee problem.
- Komoaway0:0
- Interhome2:2
- Torinoaway2:0
- Fenerbakhcheaway1:1
- Atalantahome2:1
Real Madrid: consistent scoring, fewer defensive guarantees
Four wins across the last five
Madrid arrive after beating Villarreal 1–0. Before that came victories over Inter, Rayo Vallecano and Elche, followed by a 2–1 defeat at Atletico Madrid. Across those five fixtures they scored 11 goals and conceded six. Their opening European victory places them 16th with three points, three behind Barcelona; the trip to Rome is their first away match of this Champions League campaign.
The balance between attack and defence
- Madrid scored in all five matches, reaching at least two goals on three occasions. Their attack has been more consistent than their clean-sheet record.
- Both recent away fixtures ended with Madrid conceding twice: a 3–2 win at Elche and the loss at Atletico.
- BTTS landed in four of five games, with three producing four or more total goals. Villarreal was their only clean sheet in that sequence.
Defensive and attacking absences
Raul Asencio is unavailable with a stress fracture, Eder Militao with a thigh injury and Rodrygo with a knee injury. The first two absences reduce defensive options after those two away matches with multiple goals conceded; Rodrygo's absence narrows the attacking selection. No probable lineup or formation is available, so specific replacements cannot be established.
- Vilʹyarrealhome1:0
- Atletiko Madridaway1:2
- Elʹcheaway3:2
- Rayo Valʹyekanohome4:1
- Interhome2:1
Head-to-head
- 11.08.2019Roma3:2Real MadridTovarishcheskiye matchi klubov
- 27.11.2018Roma0:2Real MadridLiga Chempionov (Gruppovoy etap)
- 19.09.2018Real Madrid3:0RomaLiga Chempionov (Gruppovoy etap)
- 08.08.2018Real Madrid2:1RomaMezhdunarodnyy Chempionskiy Kubok
- 08.03.2016Real Madrid2:0RomaLiga Chempionov (Pley-off)
The coaches frame the occasion
Gian Piero Gasperini said Roma want to test themselves against one of Europe's best teams. Jose Mourinho stated that both he and his Madrid side would pursue victory. Those comments describe intent, not a confirmed tactical approach. No separate expert assessments have been provided.
Line-ups
Рома
Starting XI: 5. Evan Ndichka, 14. Doniell Malen, 15. Marten de Run, 17. Manu Kone, 18. Matias Sule, 20. Nauelʹ Molina, 21. Paulo Dibala, 22. Mario Ermoso, 23. Dzhanluka Manchini, 43. Uesli Vinisius Franka Lima, 95. Pʹyerluigi Gollini
Substitutes: 2. Devin Rensh, 3. Konstantinos Kuliyerakis, 7. Lorenzo Pellegrini, 9. Santʹyago Kastro, 26. Leonardo Balerdi Rossa, 32. Devis Stiven Vaskes Llakh, 61. Nikkolo Pisilli, 70. Dzhordzhio De Martsi, 77. Emanuele Lulli, 86. Rodrigo Mora de Karvalʹo, 87. Daniele Gilardi
Coach: Dzhan Pʹyero Gasperini
Реал Мадрид
Starting XI: 1. Tibo Kurtua, 5. Dzhud Bellingkhem, 7. Vinisius Zhunior, 8. Federiko Valʹverde, 10. Kilian Mbappe, 14. Orelʹyen Tchuameni, 16. Ibraima Konate, 17. Mark Kukurelʹya, 22. Antonio Ryudiger, 24. Denzel Damfris, 25. Yan Diomande
Substitutes: 4. Din Kheysen, 6. Eduardo Kamavinga, 9. Endrik Felipe Moreyra de Souza, 12. Trent Aleksander-Arnolʹd, 13. Andrey Lunin, 15. Arda Gyuler, 18. Alʹvaro Fernandes Karreras, 19. Karlos Espi, 20. Bernardu Silva, 21. Brakhim Dias, 26. Serdzhio Mestre, 27. Tʹyago Pitarkh Pinar
Coach: Zhoze Mourinʹyu
Our pick: Madrid to take the points
Our bet is W2 at 1.94. Real Madrid have turned four of their last five matches into wins, whereas Roma have drawn three over the same stretch. The visitors also opened their Champions League campaign by beating Inter 2–1: they have already converted a demanding fixture into three points. Their greater European experience strengthens the case for backing them at the Olimpico.
Roma's absences include Mile Svilar and Bryan Cristante: according to media reports, goalkeeper Mile Svilar is out with a foot injury and Bryan Cristante will miss the match with a knee injury. Madrid have scored in all five recent games, so the hosts face a sustained attacking threat without those players. The risk is at the other end: Madrid conceded in four of those fixtures and are missing Eder Militao and Raul Asencio, while Rodrygo is also unavailable. A narrow victory is therefore a better expectation than a comfortable margin. Predicted score: 1–2.
Final verdict
W2 at 1.94 is our selection, with Madrid's ability to turn scoring into wins the decisive edge. Their defensive absences keep confidence measured rather than absolute.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Komoaway0:0
- Interhome2:2
- Torinoaway2:0
- Fenerbakhcheaway1:1
- Atalantahome2:1
- Vilʹyarrealhome1:0
- Atletiko Madridaway1:2
- Elʹcheaway3:2
- Rayo Valʹyekanohome4:1
- Interhome2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 16 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 17 | AEK Athens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 21 | Sabakh Baku | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 22 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 23 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
- 11.08.2019Roma3:2Real MadridTovarishcheskiye matchi klubov
- 27.11.2018Roma0:2Real MadridLiga Chempionov (Gruppovoy etap)
- 19.09.2018Real Madrid3:0RomaLiga Chempionov (Gruppovoy etap)
- 08.08.2018Real Madrid2:1RomaMezhdunarodnyy Chempionskiy Kubok
- 08.03.2016Real Madrid2:0RomaLiga Chempionov (Pley-off)
About the match
- 14 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Olimpico (Rome), Rim
Odds
odds before kick-off
Madrid favoured, with the draw gaining support
The margin-free 1X2 assessment gives Madrid a 49.2% chance, against 26.1% for Roma and 24.8% for the draw. The visitors are favourites, but remain below an outright majority probability. Over the last 24 hours, support has shifted towards the draw, while both teams' win prices have lengthened.
Under 3.5 goals carries a 54.3% assessment, although the line has moved towards Over. BTTS is priced at a 66% probability with no notable movement. That combination reflects stronger confidence in each side scoring than in a high total: Roma's recent home concessions and Madrid's away defensive record fit that distinction.
Our prediction
- Market
- W2
- Odds
- 2
- Odds at prediction
- 1.94
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 51%
- Market estimate
- 51%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 2
- Potential win
- 100 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.88
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +100 $