UEFA Champions League prediction: Napoli vs Bodo-Glimt
Napoli
Bodo-GlimtNapoli host Bodo-Glimt at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium on 20 October in the third round of the UEFA Champions League league phase. The hosts are 32nd without a point; the visitors are 24th with three and can widen the gap to a direct rival.
Napoli: home results contrast with away setbacks
Recent form and scoring patterns
Napoli's last five matches produced two wins, one draw and two defeats. They beat Bologna 1:0 at home, drew 1:1 at Fiorentina, beat Frosinone 3:0 at home, then lost 1:3 at Villarreal and 0:1 at Venezia. Their Champions League goal difference is 1:4 after two games.
Strengths and weaknesses
- Napoli scored in four of the five matches.
Available players and tactical shape
Injuries to wide players have prompted a return to 3-4-2-1. Alessandro Buongiorno is out until 31 October following knee surgery, while Luca Marianucci has a medial collateral ligament injury. Giacomo Raspadori, Alisson Santos, Antonio Vergara and David Neres are also unavailable; Frank Anguissa has recovered.
Rasmus Hojlund, Kevin De Bruyne and Matteo Politano were rested against Venezia, although De Bruyne missed a penalty. Amir Rrahmani has Napoli's only European goal.
- Unione Veneziaaway0:1
- Villarrealaway1:3
- Frosinone Calciohome3:0
- Fiorentinaaway1:1
- Bologna 1909home1:0
Bodo-Glimt: momentum with a European caveat
Four wins since the Brann defeat
Bodo-Glimt followed a 1:2 loss at Brann with victories over Rana, Kristiansund, Borussia Dortmund and HamKam. Their latest two results were 1:0 against Dortmund and 2:0 at HamKam. Across the three away fixtures, they scored nine and conceded four, although six of those goals came in the cup at Rana.
Attacking output and defensive exposure
- They scored in all five recent games, with BTTS in three.
- Three matches exceeded three goals, contrasting with the tighter latest two outings.
- Their European return is one goal scored and five conceded, with a 0:5 defeat by Bayern preceding their latest European victory.
Absences and selection questions
Goalkeeper Isak Sjong, midfielders Hakon Evjen and Magnus Riisnaes, and withdrawn forward August Mikkelsen are injured. Sondre Auklend has three yellow cards, but a suspension for this fixture is not confirmed. Fredrik Sjovold has their European goal and Auklend their assist. No confirmed formation or probable XI is available.
The visitors are also competing with Viking for the Eliteserien lead.
- HamKamaway2:0
- Borussia Dortmundhome1:0
- Kristiansund BKhome3:1
- Ranaaway6:2
- Brannaway1:2
Pressure on Napoli beyond the standings
Napoli have made their worst start to a season in a quarter of a century, losing five of their opening nine games. Massimiliano Allegri's selection faces scrutiny after the recent rotation.
Home advantage drives the pick
Our pick is W1 1.66. Napoli’s strongest case comes from their recent home performances: two wins over Bologna and Frosinone. That defensive platform matters against Bodo-Glimt, because the hosts need their first points after two Champions League defeats and cannot afford another open, chasing game.
Frank Anguissa’s return strengthens Napoli’s midfield options and should help protect a defence missing Alessandro Buongiorno and Luca Marianucci. The visitors’ four consecutive wins make this a measured home selection rather than a confident call for a comfortable margin. Still, their 0:5 defeat by Bayern exposed a vulnerability that Napoli can target if they sustain pressure without leaving space behind their midfield. Predicted score: 2:1.
Final betting view
W1 1.66 is the selection, with Napoli’s home defensive record carrying more weight than their recent away setbacks. Bodo-Glimt’s scoring threat keeps the expected margin narrow.
FAQ
When does Napoli — Bodo-Glimt kick off?
The match starts on 20.10.2026 at 15:00 (New York), Diego Armando Maradona (Naples).
What is the prediction for Napoli — Bodo-Glimt?
Our pick is W1 at 1.66.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Napoli win — 59%, draw — 21%, Bodo-Glimt win — 20%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Unione Veneziaaway0:1
- Villarrealaway1:3
- Frosinone Calciohome3:0
- Fiorentinaaway1:1
- Bologna 1909home1:0
- HamKamaway2:0
- Borussia Dortmundhome1:0
- Kristiansund BKhome3:1
- Ranaaway6:2
- Brannaway1:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Feyenoord | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 24 | Bodo-Glimt | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:5 | 3 |
| 25 | Roma | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:5 | 1 |
| 31 | Slavia Prague | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 32 | Napoli | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 33 | LASK Linz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3:7 | 0 |
About the match
- 20 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Diego Armando Maradona (Naples), Neapolʹ
- Weather: 21° · precip. 3% · wind 1.2 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 19.10 17:10
Market confidence favours the hosts, not a shutout
The 1X2 market assigns Napoli a 59.4% chance, compared with 21.1% for the draw and 19.6% for Bodo-Glimt. All listed lines have stayed broadly unchanged over the past 24 hours.
Under 3.5 goals carries a 55.3% probability, while BTTS is assessed at 60.8%: the market favours both teams scoring within a total below four goals.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Current odds
- 1.66
- Odds at prediction
- 1.64
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 60%
- Market estimate
- 59%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.66
- Potential win
- 66 $
- Status
- pending
