Manchester United vs Roma: UEFA Champions League Match Prediction
Manchester United
RomaMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.25 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5.5) 1.3 pending
Manchester United host Roma at Old Trafford in the fourth round of the UEFA Champions League league phase. Roma have four points after three matches, while United have three. The gap to the leaders is already substantial, making this fixture important in the qualifying race.
Manchester United: results, structure and selection issues
United are five matches without a win: four defeats and one draw, with 2 goals scored and 12 conceded. They have failed to score in three of those games and have conceded in all five. The latest result was a 0:2 defeat at Chelsea, following losses to Atletico Madrid, Como and Bournemouth. Their only positive result in this sequence was a 1:1 draw away to Leeds. In the Champions League, their record is 1 win and 2 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded. At home in the tournament, United have played 1 match, won it, scored 4 goals and conceded none.
Where United can create pressure
- Home advantage has produced their strongest European performance so far: 4 goals scored and none conceded in the tournament at Old Trafford.
- Joshua Zirkzee has 1 goal in 2 Champions League appearances, while Amad Diallo has 1 assist in 2 matches.
- The attack has been held scoreless in the last two league games and in three of the last five overall.
- United have conceded 12 goals across their last five fixtures, including 4 at Como and 3 against Bournemouth.
Squad picture before the match
Michael Carrick has said that he does not feel like a coach with only two matches remaining, and that the dressing room atmosphere and players’ commitment remain strong. According to media reports, Patrick Dorgu has returned to group training but will not play, while Luke Shaw, Benjamin Sesko and Manuel Ugarte are also unavailable. Leny Yoro and Marcus Rashford are doubts, Lisandro Martinez is under assessment after hip discomfort, and Matthijs de Ligt is training but not ready for matches. Aiden Heaven, Harry Amass and Amad Diallo were training with the squad. The available facts do not specify United’s expected starting eleven or exact formation.
- Chelseaaway0:2
- Bournemouthhome0:3
- PSM Makassaraway0:1
- Comoaway1:4
- Leeds Unitedaway1:1
Roma: attacking momentum and away balance
Roma’s recent trajectory is the opposite: four wins and one draw in their last five matches, with 18 goals scored and 7 conceded. They have scored in all five, including a 5:2 away win at Udinese in the latest round. Before that came a 4:2 home victory over Cagliari, a 3:3 draw at Napoli, a 4:0 home win over Slovan Bratislava and a 2:0 success against Genoa. In the Champions League they have scored 8 and conceded 5, with 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat. Their tournament away match finished level at 1:1.
Roma’s main statistical edges
- Roma have scored 2.67 goals per Champions League match, compared with United’s 1.67.
- They have scored in five consecutive matches, while United have scored in only two of their last five.
- Donyell Malen leads Roma in the tournament with 2 goals and 1 assist in 2 appearances.
- Marten de Roon and Nahuel Molina have added 1 goal each in 2 tournament appearances.
Absences and likely attacking threat
According to media reports, goalkeeper Mile Svilar, Bryan Cristante, Manu Kone and Paulo Dybala are out through injury. Donyell Malen has returned after suspension and is identified as Roma’s main attacking threat. The available facts do not provide Roma’s projected starting lineup or formation. The absences reduce depth in goal, midfield and attack, but Roma’s recent scoring output has remained high despite those issues.
- Udinese Calcioaway5:2
- Cagliari Calciohome4:2
- Napoliaway3:3
- Slovan Bratislavahome4:0
- Genoahome2:0
Head-to-head
- 06.05.2021Roma3:2Manchester UnitedUEFA Europa League - Play-off
- 29.04.2021Manchester United6:2RomaUEFA Europa League - Play-off
- 26.07.2014Manchester United3:2RomaInternational Champions Cup
- 09.04.2008Manchester United1:0RomaUEFA Champions League
- 01.04.2008Roma0:2Manchester UnitedUEFA Champions League
Motivation, pressure and the available pre-match information
United are under clear competitive pressure after nine matches without a win in all competitions. Kobbie Mainoo said the team needs one victory to change the direction of the run, while Carrick has presented the squad as united ahead of the fixture. The club is not planning to dismiss him before the match; his position is due to be discussed after the Aston Villa game during the international break.
Roma enter the match with stronger domestic momentum and two consecutive wins. Their recent national-championship results have been accompanied by regular high scoring, and the return of Malen adds a direct threat to a United defence that has conceded in every one of its last five matches. No further expert opinions, confirmed suspensions or complete starting lineups are provided in the available facts.
Line-ups
Manchester United
Starting XI: 1. Senne Lammens, 2. Diogo Dalot, 5. Harry Maguire, 8. Bruno Fernandes, 10. Matheus Cunha, 15. Leny Yoro, 16. Amad Diallo, 19. Bryan Mbeumo, 20. Carlos Baleba Noom Quomah, 26. Ayden Heaven, 37. Kobbie Mainoo
Substitutes: 3. Noussair Mazraoui, 4. Matthijs de Ligt, 6. Lisandro Martinez, 7. Mason Mount, 11. Joshua Zirkzee, 12. Karl Darlow, 17. Andrey Santos, 18. Youri Tielemans, 22. Tom Heaton, 31. Shea Lacey, 39. Tyler Fletcher, 41. Harry Amass
Coach: Michael Carrick
Roma
Starting XI: 2. Devyne Rensch, 4. Bryan Cristante, 14. Donyell Malen, 15. Marten de Roon, 18. Matias Soule, 22. Mario Hermoso, 23. Gianluca Mancini, 26. Leonardo Balerdi Rossa, 32. Devis Stiven Vasquez Llach, 43. Wesley Vinicius Franca Lima, 86. Rodrigo Mora de Carvalho
Substitutes: 3. Konstantinos Koulierakis, 5. Evan Ndicka, 9. Santiago Castro, 20. Nahuel Molina, 61. Niccolo Pisilli, 63. Alessandro Di Nunzio, 70. Giorgio De Marzi, 77. Emanuele Lulli, 87. Daniele Ghilardi
Coach: Gian Piero Gasperini
Our prediction: United to score twice
Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.3. Manchester United have scored four goals at home in this Champions League campaign. One fixture is a small sample, but Roma’s weakened defensive spine makes the hosts’ scoring line preferable to backing them to win.
Roma are without goalkeeper Mile Svilar and midfielders Bryan Cristante and Manu Kone through injury. Those absences reduce their options in goal and in protecting the defence. They conceded three against Napoli and two against Udinese, leaving room for United to create chances despite their own attacking difficulties. Benjamin Sesko is unavailable and Marcus Rashford remains doubtful, so this is a measured selection rather than a call for a rout. A possible score is 2:2.
Final betting verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.3 needs United to score at least twice for a winning return; exactly one goal returns the stake. That protection is useful when backing an inconsistent attack against a depleted visiting side.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Chelseaaway0:2
- Bournemouthhome0:3
- PSM Makassaraway0:1
- Comoaway1:4
- Leeds Unitedaway1:1
- Udinese Calcioaway5:2
- Cagliari Calciohome4:2
- Napoliaway3:3
- Slovan Bratislavahome4:0
- Genoahome2:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bayern Munich | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10:5 | 5 |
| 15 | Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 | Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 | Internazionale Milano | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 06.05.2021Roma3:2Manchester UnitedUEFA Europa League - Play-off
- 29.04.2021Manchester United6:2RomaUEFA Europa League - Play-off
- 26.07.2014Manchester United3:2RomaInternational Champions Cup
- 09.04.2008Manchester United1:0RomaUEFA Champions League
- 01.04.2008Roma0:2Manchester UnitedUEFA Champions League
About the match
- 3 November · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Old Trafford (Manchester), Manchester
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market assessment and goal profile
The market gives Manchester United a narrow home-favourite status, but the margin over Roma is small: the estimated probabilities are 40.5% for a home win, 24.2% for a draw and 35.2% for an away win. That distribution reflects Old Trafford and United’s strong home tournament result, while also pricing in Roma’s much better recent form. The line has shown no notable movement during the last 24 hours.
The goal markets lean toward a match below the higher total line, with 57.9% assigned to the Under and 42.1% to the Over. At the same time, both teams to score is assessed at 65.1%, consistent with Roma’s scoring run and United’s defensive problems, while the total can still remain controlled. The available data do not indicate why the line has shown no notable movement during the last 24 hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Odds
- 1.25
- Odds at prediction
- 1.3
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 73%
- Market estimate
- 76%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.25
- Potential win
- 25 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.25
- Status
- pending
