Internazionale Milano vs Shakhtar Donetsk: UEFA Champions League Prediction
Internazionale Milano
Shakhtar DonetskMatch result
Internazionale Milano 1:0 Shakhtar Donetsk (0:0, 1:0)
Internazionale Milano defeated Shakhtar Donetsk 1:0 in their UEFA Champions League match. Following a 0:0 score at halftime, the home side secured victory in the second period. Our W1 prediction was successful, as the bet won.
Our prediction: W1 at 1.23 — the bet won.
Internazionale Milano host Shakhtar Donetsk at Giuseppe Meazza on 21 October in Matchday 3 of the UEFA Champions League league phase. Inter need their first points to climb from 29th place; Shakhtar arrive 11th, two behind leaders Paris Saint-Germain.
Inter: scoring form meets defensive disruption
Recent results and home performance
Inter have three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five matches. Their latest result was a 3:1 win at Bologna. At home, victories over Lumezzane and Parma preceded a 3:4 defeat against Club Brugge; the friendly against Lumezzane makes that sequence less useful as a measure of competitive strength.
Attacking output and defensive weaknesses
- Inter scored in all five games.
- Their European return is four goals scored and six conceded across two defeats: attacking production has not delivered points.
Absences and attacking responsibility
Lautaro Martinez, Benjamin Pavard, Curtis Jones and John Stones are unavailable with muscle injuries. Losing Martinez removes a captain credited with two tournament goals; Ange-Yoan Bonny has one, while Federico Dimarco has an assist. Pavard and Stones being absent together reduces defensive options after the recent European defeat.
- Bologna 1909away3:1
- Club Bruggehome3:4
- Parmahome3:0
- Lumezzanehome2:0
- Romaaway2:2
Shakhtar: a winning run with limited away evidence
Five victories before the Milan trip
Shakhtar have won all five of their latest matches. They followed a 3:1 European victory over AEK Athens with a 2:1 league win against Kolos Kovalivka.
Goal trends and the European comparison
- Four goals scored and two conceded in Europe have brought four points, a more efficient return than the hosts’ start.
Missing players and available contributors
Eguinaldo and Irakli Azarovi are unavailable through injury. Arda Turan specifically highlighted the physical contribution Eguinaldo would have offered in this fixture. Vinicius Tobias and Gleiker Mendoza each have one tournament goal, with Alisson Santana credited with an assist. Confirmed probable lineups, formations and suspension details are not supplied for either side.
- Kolos Kovalivkahome2:1
- AEK Athenshome3:1
- Veres Rivneaway3:0
- Kryvbashome3:0
- LNZhome3:0
A narrow historical reference
The sole official meeting listed within the five-year window ended 2:0 to Inter in Milan on 24 November 2021. That gives the hosts one win and one clean sheet, but a single encounter almost five years ago offers little basis for judging the current squads.
- 24.11.2021Internazionale Milano2:0Shakhtar DonetskChampions League (Group Stage)
- 28.09.2021Shakhtar Donetsk0:0Internazionale MilanoChampions League (Group Stage)
- 09.12.2020Internazionale Milano0:0Shakhtar DonetskChampions League (Group Stage)
- 27.10.2020Shakhtar Donetsk0:0Internazionale MilanoChampions League (Group Stage)
- 17.08.2020Internazionale Milano5:0Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Europa League - Play-off
Coaches favour continuity over surprise
Cristian Chivu says Inter will retain their usual approach, while describing Shakhtar as skilled, experienced and physically durable. Turan likewise wants his side to preserve their identity and warned that attempts to surprise Inter could create problems. Valeriy Bondar’s call for defenders to support attacks and forwards to help defend points to shared responsibility rather than a purely defensive brief.
Line-ups
Internazionale Milano
Starting XI: 1. Josep Martinez, 8. Petar Sucic, 9. Marcus Thuram, 14. Ange-Yoan Bonny, 20. Hakan Calhanoglu, 23. Nicolo Barella, 25. Manuel Akanji, 30. Carlos Augusto, 32. Federico Dimarco, 95. Alessandro Bastoni, 99. Djed Spence
Substitutes: 5. Aleksandar Stankovic, 7. Piotr Zielinski, 11. Luis Henrique Tomaz de Lima, 12. Raffaele Di Gennaro, 17. Andy Diouf, 22. Henrikh Mkhitaryan, 31. Yann Aurel Bisseck, 45. Francesco Stante, 46. Leonardo Bovio, 48. Mattia Mosconi, 49. Ivan Provedel, 94. Francesco Pio Esposito
Coach: Cristian Chivu
Shakhtar Donetsk
Starting XI: 5. Valeriy Bondar, 6. Marlon Gomes, 9. Kaua Elias, 10. Pedro Victor Delmino da Silva, 13. Pedro Henrique, 17. Vinicius Tobias, 22. Mykola Matviyenko, 27. Oleg Ocheretko, 30. Alisson Santana, 31. Dmytro Riznyk, 77. Gleiker Mendoza
Substitutes: 2. Lacina Traore, 8. Dmytro Kryskiv, 11. Newerton Martins da Silva, 14. Isaque Severino Silva, 18. Alaa Ghram, 20. Oleksandr Karavayev, 23. Kiril Fesiun, 25. Gabriel Carvalho Teixeira, 29. Egor Nazarina, 37. Lucas dos Santos Ferreira, 49. Lucas Meirelles, 99. Bruno Braga Ramos
Coach: Arda Turan
Our pick for Milan
Our bet is W1 1.23. Inter enter this home fixture with no points from two Champions League games, so the priority is to turn scoring output into a result. Attacking production remains the strongest argument for backing the hosts at Giuseppe Meazza.
The absences of Lautaro Martinez, Benjamin Pavard, John Stones and Curtis Jones reduce Inter's options and make this a less secure selection than the gap in stature suggests. Shakhtar's four points and 4:2 goal difference in Europe demand respect, but Eguinaldo and Irakli Azarovi are also unavailable. Inter's edge is their ability to sustain scoring pressure: even their recent European defeat produced three goals. The case for the hosts rests on that attacking output, rather than assuming their depleted defence will keep a clean sheet. Predicted score: 3:1.
Final verdict
W1 1.23 is our selection, with Inter's scoring threat carrying more weight than the prospect of a shutout. Their defensive absences limit confidence, so this is a measured home-win call rather than a risk-free pick.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Bologna 1909away3:1
- Club Bruggehome3:4
- Parmahome3:0
- Lumezzanehome2:0
- Romaaway2:2
- Kolos Kovalivkahome2:1
- AEK Athenshome3:1
- Veres Rivneaway3:0
- Kryvbashome3:0
- LNZhome3:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 | Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 | Internazionale Milano | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:7 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 24.11.2021Internazionale Milano2:0Shakhtar DonetskChampions League (Group Stage)
- 28.09.2021Shakhtar Donetsk0:0Internazionale MilanoChampions League (Group Stage)
- 09.12.2020Internazionale Milano0:0Shakhtar DonetskChampions League (Group Stage)
- 27.10.2020Shakhtar Donetsk0:0Internazionale MilanoChampions League (Group Stage)
- 17.08.2020Internazionale Milano5:0Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Europa League - Play-off
About the match
- 21 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Giuseppe Meazza (Milan), Milan
Odds
odds before kick-off
Strong home favouritism, with some easing
The margin-adjusted 1X2 assessment assigns Inter an 80.1% chance, against 12.5% for the draw and 7.5% for Shakhtar. Over the last 24 hours, the home-win price has lengthened while the draw and away-win prices have shortened: confidence in Inter has eased without changing the favourite.
Over 3.5 goals carries a 56.2% assessment and BTTS stands at 56%, with neither line showing notable movement. Those markets allow for a contribution from Shakhtar rather than treating home favouritism as synonymous with a clean sheet.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Odds
- 1.23
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 80%
- Market estimate
- 72%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.23
- Potential win
- 23 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.34
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +23 $
