Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce Forecast: UEFA Champions League
Aston Villa
FenerbahceMatch result
Aston Villa 6:0 Fenerbahce (3:0, 3:0)
Aston Villa secured a dominant 6-0 victory over Fenerbahce in the UEFA Champions League. The home side established a strong lead, going into halftime with a 3-0 advantage, and continued their impressive performance in the second half to seal the comprehensive win. Our prediction for a home win (W1) was successful, as Aston Villa comfortably defeated their opponents.
Our prediction: W1 at 1.74 — the bet won.
Aston Villa host Fenerbahce at Villa Park in Birmingham on 14 October in the second round of the UEFA Champions League league phase. Villa are 11th with three points from one match; Fenerbahce are 24th with one and can overtake their hosts.
Aston Villa: scoring freely, conceding regularly
Recent results and home form
Villa's last five matches brought three wins, one draw and one defeat. They beat Coventry, Tottenham and Sevilla away, although the Sevilla fixture was a friendly. At home, a 1:2 defeat against Nottingham Forest was followed by a 2:2 draw with Brentford.
Attacking output and defensive exposure
- Villa scored in all five matches.
Availability and selection
Matteo Ruggeri, Ian Maatsen, George Hemmings, Taylor Harwood-Bellis and Brian Madjo are unavailable. Leon Goretzka has returned from injury and is in the squad. Amadou Onana and Modou Keba Cisse have resumed team training. Unai Emery said Maatsen's condition is improving.
- Brentfordhome2:2
- Sevilʹyaaway3:1
- Tottenkh·em Khot·spuraway3:2
- Koventri Sitiaway3:1
- Nottingem Foresthome1:2
Fenerbahce: clean sheets with a selection caveat
Results at home and on the road
Fenerbahce are unbeaten in their last five matches, with three wins following two draws. Their latest result was a 3:0 away win over Rizespor. The other away fixtures were a goalless draw at Gaziantep and a 2:0 friendly win over Turan. Their Champions League opener ended 1:1 at home against Roma.
Defensive record and scoring distribution
- Fenerbahce have kept four consecutive clean sheets.
- They scored in four of five matches, but the 8:0 win over Eyupspor accounts for more than half their goals.
- Three fixtures went Over 2.5; BTTS occurred only once.
- Across the three away games, they scored five goals without conceding.
Absences and midfield availability
Jayden Oosterwolde is out with an Achilles injury, Mert Muldur with a knee problem, and Marco Asensio needs more time to recover. Matteo Guendouzi is eligible after his suspension was shortened.
- Rizesporaway3:0
- Turanaway2:0
- Eyupsporhome8:0
- Gaziantepaway0:0
- Romahome1:1
One previous meeting, a narrow Villa victory
The only official meeting in the past five years came on 22 January 2026, when Villa won 1:0 at Fenerbahce in the Europa League league phase. One encounter cannot establish a recurring scoring pattern or a substantial head-to-head advantage.
- 22.01.2026Fenerbakhche0:1Aston VillaLiga Yevropy UYEFA - Etap ligi
Coaches emphasise confidence and workload
Emery described this fixture as an opportunity for Villa to take a step forward and build confidence. Ismail Kartal said he may leave some players out to reduce injury risk, provide rest and preserve the team's cohesion. Rotation remains an option, not a confirmed selection decision.
Line-ups
Астон Вилла
Starting XI: 1. Tsion Sudzuki, 2. Matti Kash, 3. Viktor Lindelef, 6. Ross Barkli, 7. Dzhon MakGinn, 8. Bubakar Kamara, 11. Nikolas Dzhekson, 14. Pau Torres, 19. Ibragim Mbayye, 29. Aaron van Bissaka, 44. Yokhan Manzambi
Substitutes: 5. Tirone Mings, 10. Emiliano Buendiya, 17. Alekhandro Garnacho, 18. T·emmi Abrakham, 26. Lamar Bogard, 27. Leon Goretska, 35. Zhuan Vitor Gomes da Silva, 40. Marko Bizot, 42. Dzheyms Rayt, 47. Alisson Edvard
Coach: Unai Emeri
Фенербахче
Starting XI: 3. Archi Braun, 5. Ismail Yuksek, 6. Matteo Genduzi, 11. Meyson Grinvud, 15. Natan Ake, 17. Irfan Kan Kakhvedzhi, 19. Vedat Muriki, 27. Nelson Semedo, 31. Santana Ederson Morayes, 37. Milan Shkriniar, 70. Oguz Aydyn
Substitutes: 7. Mukhammed Aktyurkoglu, 9. Romelu Lukaku, 13. Tarik Chetin, 14. Yigit Efe Demir, 21. Kodzho Pepra Oppong, 22. Munir-Levent Merkan, 28. Bartug Elʹmaz, 34. Fekhmi Mert Gyunok, 45. Nene Dorgeles, 77. Ognen Mimovich, 91. N’Golo Kante
Coach: Ismail Kartal
Our pick: Villa to take three points
Aston Villa have three points, and our pick is W1 1.74. They have scored in all five recent matches. That consistent scoring threat is the main reason to back the hosts, rather than relying on home advantage alone. January's 1:0 victory away to Fenerbahce also shows they have beaten this opponent this year, though one meeting carries limited weight.
According to media reports, Leon Goretzka is back in the squad, while Amadou Onana has resumed team training; the latter does not guarantee a start. Fenerbahce are without Marco Asensio, Jayden Oosterwolde and Mert Muldur, reducing their selection options. Villa conceding in every recent game is the strongest objection to the pick. Expected score: 2:1.
Final verdict
W1 1.74 is the selection: Villa's scoring consistency and Goretzka's return favour the hosts against a depleted visiting squad. Their defensive record makes this a narrow-win forecast, not a comfortable-win call.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Brentfordhome2:2
- Sevilʹyaaway3:1
- Tottenkh·em Khot·spuraway3:2
- Koventri Sitiaway3:1
- Nottingem Foresthome1:2
- Rizesporaway3:0
- Turanaway2:0
- Eyupsporhome8:0
- Gaziantepaway0:0
- Romahome1:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Villarreal | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 3 |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 12 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 23 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 24 | Fenerbahce | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 25 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
Head-to-head
- 22.01.2026Fenerbakhche0:1Aston VillaLiga Yevropy UYEFA - Etap ligi
About the match
- 14 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Villa Park (Birmingham), Birmingem
Odds
odds before kick-off
Villa remain favourites as draw support strengthens
The 1X2 market assigns Villa a 58% chance of victory, compared with 23.4% for the draw and 18.7% for Fenerbahce. Over the past 24 hours, support has shifted towards the draw and away from both the home win and away win.
Over 2.5 carries a 59.6% probability and BTTS 58.1%, but both have lost support as Under and BTTS No have strengthened.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Odds
- 1.7
- Odds at prediction
- 1.74
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 58%
- Market estimate
- 59%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.7
- Potential win
- 70 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.62
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +70 $