TSG 1899 Hoffenheim — Bayer 04 Leverkusen Forecast in Bundesliga
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
Bayer 04 LeverkusenMore picks
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.39 lost
- 2nd half: Total Over (1.5) 1.49 won
Match result
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3:0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (0:0, 3:0)
In the Germany. Bundesliga match, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim defeated Bayer 04 Leverkusen with a final score of 3:0. The teams were tied 0:0 at half-time before the home side netted three goals in the second half. Our bet on Handicap 2 (0) lost as the away team could not secure a victory.
Our prediction: Handicap 2 (0) at 1.78 — the bet lost.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (1.5) at 1.49 — the bet won.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim host Bayer 04 Leverkusen at PreZero Arena in the seventh Bundesliga round. Hoffenheim are thirteenth with six points; Leverkusen are fourth with thirteen, level with Freiburg and one point behind Bayern Munich.
Hoffenheim: attacking output against a fragile defence
Recent form and home pattern
Hoffenheim have won two and lost three of their last five matches, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Three straight defeats were followed by a 2:1 win at Borussia Monchengladbach and a 3:0 home victory over Lyon. They scored in all five games and conceded in four.
Their six-match Bundesliga record is two wins and four losses, with 11 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home, they have one win and two defeats, scoring six and conceding seven. Opponents scored at least twice in each of those three matches.
Strengths, weaknesses and personnel
- BTTS has landed in every league match, and all six have exceeded the lower goals threshold.
- Hoffenheim average 1.83 goals per league game. Bambase Conte leads the team with two goals in two appearances.
- They concede 2.33 goals per match and have no clean sheet in six rounds.
- Alexander Prass has one goal and one assist; Fisnik Asllani has one assist in two appearances.
Striker Patrick Wimmer, full-back Albian Hajdari and holding midfielder Nathan De Cat are out injured. Bernardo returns from suspension. The starting eleven and formation are unconfirmed; the absences reduce options in attack, wide defence and central midfield.
- Lyonhome3:0
- Borussia Monchengladbachaway2:1
- Besiktashome2:3
- Hamburgerhome2:3
- Paderborn 07away1:3
Leverkusen: five wins and a sharper defensive base
Momentum before the trip
Leverkusen have won their last five official matches, scoring 14 and conceding four. Their latest result was a 2:0 away victory over OFI Crete, following wins against Freiburg, Lech Poznan, Mainz and Leipzig. They scored in every match and kept three clean sheets.
Their Bundesliga record is four wins, one draw and one defeat, with 16 goals scored and nine conceded. Away from home, they have one win, one draw and one loss, with eight goals scored and eight conceded across three trips.
Weapons, vulnerabilities and absences
- Leverkusen average 2.67 goals per Bundesliga match and have exceeded the mid-range goals threshold in five of six league fixtures.
- Patrik Schick has two goals and one assist in two appearances; Ibrahim Maza has one goal and one assist.
- They have kept two clean sheets in six league games, but their away concessions remain a weakness.
Martin Terrier, Christian Kofane, Montrell Culbreath and Tim Oermann are unavailable. Eliesse Ben Seghir is doubtful with a minor muscle issue. The starting lineup and tactical shape are unconfirmed.
- OFI Creteaway2:0
- Freiburghome2:1
- Lech Poznanaway4:0
- 1. FSV Mainz 05away4:3
- RasenBallsport Leipzighome2:0
Head-to-head record points to a competitive fixture
Across the last 10 official meetings, Hoffenheim have won three, drawn one and lost six. They won the latest two encounters: 1:0 at home in January 2026 and 2:1 away in August 2025. Leverkusen had won four in a row before those defeats.
Three earlier meetings at PreZero Arena ended 1:3, 2:3 and 1:4 from Hoffenheim’s perspective. Leverkusen’s scoring record at this venue contrasts with their defeat on the latest visit.
- 17.01.2026TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1:0Bayer 04 LeverkusenGermany. Bundesliga
- 23.08.2025Bayer 04 Leverkusen1:2TSG 1899 HoffenheimGermany. Bundesliga
- 02.02.2025Bayer 04 Leverkusen3:1TSG 1899 HoffenheimGermany. Bundesliga
- 14.09.2024TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1:4Bayer 04 LeverkusenGermany. Bundesliga
- 30.03.2024Bayer 04 Leverkusen2:1TSG 1899 HoffenheimGermany. Bundesliga
Team news and motivation before kickoff
Hoffenheim enter after two consecutive official wins, with the European clean sheet interrupting their run of defensive concessions. They now need to carry that improvement into their home league performances.
Leverkusen sit seven points above Hoffenheim and within reach of the top position. Their European shutout does not resolve the defensive problems on Bundesliga away trips.
Line-ups
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
Starting XI: 1. Oliver Baumann, 5. Ozan Kabak, 7. Leon Avdullahu, 10. Adam Hlozek, 11. Fisnik Asllani, 14. Adam Daghim, 18. Wouter Burger, 22. Alexander Prass, 28. Koki Machida, 34. Vladimir Coufal, 39. Mats Rots
Substitutes: 2. Robin Hranac, 9. Max Moerstedt, 13. Bernardo Fernandes Da Silva Junior, 15. Valentin Gendrey, 20. Bambase Conte, 27. Andrej Kramaric, 29. Natnael Abraha, 32. Cajetan Lenz, 37. Luca Filippi
Coach: Christian Ilzer
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Starting XI: 1. Mark Flekken, 2. Facundo Medina, 3. Miguel Gutierrez, 4. Jarell Quansah, 6. Ezequiel Fernandez, 12. Edmond Tapsoba, 14. Patrik Schick, 19. Moussa Diaby, 23. Nathan Tella, 24. Aleix Garcia, 30. Ibrahim Maza
Substitutes: 5. Loic Bade, 7. Jonas Hofmann, 8. Robert Andrich, 9. Afonso Bastardo Moreira, 10. Malik Tillman, 15. Tim Oermann, 17. Lucas Vazquez, 22. Victor Boniface, 28. Janis Blaswich
Coach: Carles Martinez Novell
Our pick for the trip to Sinsheim
Our bet is Handicap 2 (0) 1.78. Leverkusen’s five consecutive official wins make them the preferred side, while Hoffenheim’s 14 goals conceded in six league games identify the clearest route to an away victory: sustained pressure on a defence yet to keep a Bundesliga clean sheet.
The protection against a draw matters here. Bayer have conceded eight goals in three league away games, so backing them need not mean expecting control throughout. Hoffenheim’s attacking threat can keep the contest close, but the absence of holding midfielder Nathan De Cat through a knee injury weakens their options in front of the defence. Bernardo’s return from suspension restores an option rather than guaranteeing a solution. The expected score is 1:2.
Final betting verdict
Handicap 2 (0) 1.78 retains the upside of Leverkusen’s stronger recent results without requiring an away win to avoid a loss: a draw returns the stake. Bayer’s vulnerability on the road makes that safeguard preferable to an unprotected away selection.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Lyonhome3:0
- Borussia Monchengladbachaway2:1
- Besiktashome2:3
- Hamburgerhome2:3
- Paderborn 07away1:3
- OFI Creteaway2:0
- Freiburghome2:1
- Lech Poznanaway4:0
- 1. FSV Mainz 05away4:3
- RasenBallsport Leipzighome2:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | 13 |
| 5 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | 12 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17:13 | 9 |
| 10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 9 |
| 11 | Hamburger | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:16 | 9 |
Head-to-head
- 17.01.2026TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1:0Bayer 04 LeverkusenGermany. Bundesliga
- 23.08.2025Bayer 04 Leverkusen1:2TSG 1899 HoffenheimGermany. Bundesliga
- 02.02.2025Bayer 04 Leverkusen3:1TSG 1899 HoffenheimGermany. Bundesliga
- 14.09.2024TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1:4Bayer 04 LeverkusenGermany. Bundesliga
- 30.03.2024Bayer 04 Leverkusen2:1TSG 1899 HoffenheimGermany. Bundesliga
About the match
- 25 October · 10:30 New York
- Venue: PreZero Arena (Sinsheim), Zinskhaym
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view and goal expectations
The 1X2 market makes Leverkusen narrow favourites, assigning an away win a 41.2% probability, compared with 35.7% for a home win and 23.1% for a draw. Their league position and winning run are offset by away defensive weaknesses and Hoffenheim’s home scoring output.
The Over/Under market is almost evenly split around the listed total: Under has a 50.8% probability and Over 49.2%. BTTS Yes is the strongest signal at 70.5%. There has been no noticeable line movement over the last 24 hours.
BTTS Yes is the preferred bet: both attacks have scored consistently, while neither side’s league defensive record supports reliance on a clean sheet.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (0)
- Odds
- 1.78
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 53%
- Market estimate
- 61%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.78
- Potential win
- 78 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.57
- Status
- lost
- Profit
- −100 $