Bundesliga Match Prediction: Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig
Schalke 04
RasenBallsport LeipzigSchalke host RasenBallsport Leipzig at Veltins-Arena in Gelsenkirchen on 31 October in Bundesliga round 8. The hosts are 16th with six points, level with the teams immediately above and below them. Leipzig are fifth on 12 points, one behind fourth place. Schalke need points to move away from relegation places; Leipzig need them to stay near the top.
Schalke: defensive resistance, little attacking return
Recent results and scoring patterns
Schalke’s last five matches produced one win, one draw and three defeats. The victory came in a friendly against Austria Lustenau. Their competitive sequence then brought defeats at Freiburg and at home to Mainz, a draw at Cologne and a cup exit at Dresden. They have failed to score in their last three matches.
Strengths and weaknesses
- Seven league matches have produced four goals, an average of 0.57.
- Three clean sheets and seven goals conceded show greater defensive resistance than their league position.
- Schalke have scored none and conceded once across three home league fixtures.
Players available and missing
Dejan Ljubicic is out with a knee injury, Emil Hojlund after Achilles surgery, Moussa Sylla with a leg injury and goalkeeper Johannes Siebeking with an abdominal injury. The absence of two forwards further limits an attack that has failed to score in three matches. Kenan Karaman has one league goal in two appearances, while Adrian Gantenbein has one assist in two. No probable lineup, formation or suspension details are supplied.
- Dynamo Dresdenaway0:2
- 1. Kolnaway0:0
- 1. FSV Mainz 05home0:1
- Freiburgaway1:2
- Austria Lustenauaway1:0
Leipzig: attacking output masks an away weakness
Momentum across competitions
Leipzig have three wins and two defeats in their last five games. A home victory over PSV preceded heavy losses at Bayern and Real Madrid. They then recovered with wins over Elversberg and Rot-Weiss Essen. They scored in every match of that sequence, but both clean sheets came at home.
Where the balance changes
- Twenty league goals in seven games give Leipzig an attacking average of 2.86.
- All three league away matches ended in defeat, with two goals scored and 11 conceded.
- Six of seven league games exceeded 2.5 goals, although Leipzig kept four clean sheets.
Attacking personnel
Christoph Baumgartner and Marc Guiu are unavailable with hamstring injuries. Christopher Nkunku has three league goals in two appearances; Tidiam Gomis and Romulo each have two in three. The scoring is spread beyond one player. No probable starting eleven, tactical formation or suspension information is supplied.
- Rot-Weiss Essenaway2:1
- Elversberghome4:0
- Real Madridaway1:4
- Bayern Munichaway1:6
- PSV Eindhovenhome1:0
Previous meetings heavily favoured Leipzig
Leipzig won both official meetings within the listed five-year period: 6:1 in Gelsenkirchen and 4:2 at home, both in 2023. Both teams scored in each match. Those high-scoring encounters are less relevant to Schalke’s current shortage of goals.
- 27.05.2023RasenBallsport Leipzig4:2Schalke 04Germany. Bundesliga
- 24.01.2023Schalke 041:6RasenBallsport LeipzigGermany. Bundesliga
- 06.02.2021Schalke 040:3RasenBallsport LeipzigGermany. Bundesliga
- 03.10.2020RasenBallsport Leipzig4:0Schalke 04Germany. Bundesliga
- 22.02.2020Schalke 040:5RasenBallsport LeipzigGermany. Bundesliga
Preparation and immediate priorities
Schalke’s home winless run extends to five matches across the reported sequence. Leipzig played their cup tie on 27 October, while Schalke played on 28 October. No expert comments are supplied. Dry conditions, 11°C and wind of 2.1 m/s suggest little weather disruption.
Our Prediction
Our pick is Handicap 2 (0) 1.34. Schalke have scored only 4 goals in 7 Bundesliga matches and none across 3 home games, where they have yet to win. Their latest five-match run contains 3 defeats, while four players are unavailable, including forwards Emil Højlund and Moussa Sylla. That further reduces the hosts’ options in the final third.
Leipzig have scored 20 times in the league, average 2.86 goals per match and arrive after two consecutive victories. Their away record is a serious risk, with 3 defeats from 3 Bundesliga trips and 11 goals conceded, but the visitors’ attacking ceiling is clearly higher. Christopher Nkunku, Tidiam Gomis and Romulo have already combined for 7 league goals. The draw protection is valuable in a match where Schalke’s low scoring rate limits their chance of winning. Leipzig’s absences of Christoph Baumgartner and Marc Guiu are noted, but the squad still has a much stronger attacking profile. Expected score: Schalke 04 0:2 RasenBallsport Leipzig.
Conclusion
Handicap 2 (0) 1.34 is the preferred selection. Leipzig’s scoring output and current two-game winning run outweigh Schalke’s home advantage, while a draw would return the stake.
FAQ
When does Schalke 04 — RasenBallsport Leipzig kick off?
The match starts on 31.10.2026 at 10:30 (New York), Veltins-Arena (Gelsenkirchen).
What is the prediction for Schalke 04 — RasenBallsport Leipzig?
Our pick is Handicap 2 (0) at 1.34.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Schalke 04 win — 24%, draw — 23%, RasenBallsport Leipzig win — 52%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Dynamo Dresdenaway0:2
- 1. Kolnaway0:0
- 1. FSV Mainz 05home0:1
- Freiburgaway1:2
- Austria Lustenauaway1:0
- Rot-Weiss Essenaway2:1
- Elversberghome4:0
- Real Madridaway1:4
- Bayern Munichaway1:6
- PSV Eindhovenhome1:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | 13 |
| 5 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | 12 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | 6 |
| 16 | Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:7 | 6 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:18 | 6 |
Head-to-head
- 27.05.2023RasenBallsport Leipzig4:2Schalke 04Germany. Bundesliga
- 24.01.2023Schalke 041:6RasenBallsport LeipzigGermany. Bundesliga
- 06.02.2021Schalke 040:3RasenBallsport LeipzigGermany. Bundesliga
- 03.10.2020RasenBallsport Leipzig4:0Schalke 04Germany. Bundesliga
- 22.02.2020Schalke 040:5RasenBallsport LeipzigGermany. Bundesliga
About the match
- 31 October · 10:30 New York
- Venue: Veltins-Arena (Gelsenkirchen)
- Weather: 11° · precip. 0% · wind 2.4 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 31.10 06:10
Market preference meets conflicting scoring signals
Leipzig are the market favourites, with a margin-free away-win probability of 52.4%; Schalke are assigned 25% and the draw 22.6%. The line has shown no notable movement over 24 hours. Leipzig’s superior scoring output supports their status, while their away record prevents an overwhelming assessment.
BTTS is assessed at 66%, despite occurring in only two of seven league games for each team. Under 3.5 goals has a narrower preference at 54.3%. These markets place more weight on scoring in this matchup than the recent BTTS frequencies alone suggest; seven league fixtures per side remain a small sample.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.34
- Odds at prediction
- 1.39
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Market estimate
- 71%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
