RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Elversberg: Bundesliga Match Prediction
RasenBallsport Leipzig
ElversbergMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1.5) 1.47 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (3.5) 1.38 pending
RasenBallsport Leipzig host Elversberg at the Red Bull Arena on 24 October in Bundesliga round seven. Elversberg are sixth with 10 points, one ahead of seventh-placed Leipzig. A home win would reverse their positions; Elversberg must protect their advantage against a Leipzig side with a sharp home-away split.
Leipzig: home strength versus away damage
Recent results and the venue split
Leipzig’s last five matches brought two wins and three defeats: 0:2 at Leverkusen, 6:0 against Frankfurt, 1:0 against PSV, then 1:6 at Bayern and 1:4 at Real Madrid. The two latest losses came away; their Bundesliga home record is three wins from three, with 14 goals scored and none conceded. Their home record is more relevant here than the full five-match sequence.
Attacking output and defensive exposure
Leipzig have scored 16 goals in six league games, produced Over 2.5 goals in five, and kept three clean sheets. They have conceded 11, all away from home. BTTS occurred in only two of six fixtures, so their high totals have not consistently required both teams to score. Six league matches are too small a sample to assume the home defensive record will continue unchanged.
Key players and preparation
Christopher Nkunku has three league goals in two appearances; Ezechiel Banzuzi and Antonio Nusa each have a goal and an assist across two appearances. Media reports say Leipzig want to sign Nkunku permanently from Milan. Martin Demichelis called the Madrid defeat “not a catastrophe”, saying his team differed from the Bayern performance and created several excellent chances.
- Real Madridaway1:4
- Bayern Munichaway1:6
- PSV Eindhovenhome1:0
- Eintracht Frankfurthome6:0
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway0:2
Elversberg: a narrow lead built on mixed results
A 4:3 win against Augsburg
Elversberg’s last five results were 1:2 against Bayern, 0:0 at Schalke, a 1:2 friendly defeat at Waldhof Mannheim, 0:1 at Union Berlin and 4:3 against Augsburg. They recorded one win, one draw and three defeats. The friendly should be separated from their league record.
Scoring capacity and road restraint
Elversberg have scored 12 league goals and conceded 11, with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals each occurring in four of six matches. Only one clean sheet indicates limited defensive protection. Away from home, they have one win, one draw and one defeat, with four goals scored and four conceded.
Contributors and selection information
Lukas Petkov has a goal and an assist in two league appearances, while Lasse Gunther and Maximilian Rohr each have one goal in two appearances.
- Augsburghome4:3
- Union Berlinaway0:1
- Waldhof Mannheimaway1:2
- Schalke 04away0:0
- Bayern Munichhome1:2
Head-to-head
- 02.03.2014RasenBallsport Leipzig2:0ElversbergGermany. 3. Liga
- 07.09.2013Elversberg1:0RasenBallsport LeipzigGermany. 3. Liga
Pre-match messages without selection detail
Pre-match reports describe Leipzig as determined to win and Elversberg as unwilling to surrender points easily. Neither statement specifies how the teams will set up.
Prediction
RasenBallsport Leipzig face Elversberg at the Red Bull Arena, with the teams separated by one point in the Bundesliga table. Leipzig have won all three league matches at home, scoring 14 goals and conceding none. Their championship average is 2.67 goals per game, while Elversberg have conceded 11 goals in six rounds, or 1.83 per game. Elversberg's away record is one win, one draw and one defeat, with four goals scored and four conceded.
Leipzig scored at least six goals in one of their latest home league fixtures and beat PSV 1:0 in the Champions League before losing away to Bayern Munich and Real Madrid. Elversberg have conceded in four of their last five matches, including three goals against Augsburg. Christopher Nkunku has scored three goals in two league appearances. The home-win probability is 66.6%.
Our selection is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.3. Leipzig's 14 goals in three home league matches, 2.67-goal championship average and Elversberg's 1.83 goals conceded per game support at least two Leipzig goals. Probable score: 3:1.
Conclusion
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.3 is the selection.
FAQ
When does RasenBallsport Leipzig — Elversberg kick off?
The match starts on 24.10.2026 at 09:30 (New York), Red Bull Arena (Leipzig).
What is the prediction for RasenBallsport Leipzig — Elversberg?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.3.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: RasenBallsport Leipzig win — 67%, draw — 18%, Elversberg win — 16%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Real Madridaway1:4
- Bayern Munichaway1:6
- PSV Eindhovenhome1:0
- Eintracht Frankfurthome6:0
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway0:2
- Augsburghome4:3
- Union Berlinaway0:1
- Waldhof Mannheimaway1:2
- Schalke 04away0:0
- Bayern Munichhome1:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14:10 | 10 |
| 6 | Elversberg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12:11 | 10 |
| 7 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16:11 | 9 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12:12 | 9 |
Head-to-head
- 02.03.2014RasenBallsport Leipzig2:0ElversbergGermany. 3. Liga
- 07.09.2013Elversberg1:0RasenBallsport LeipzigGermany. 3. Liga
About the match
- 24 October · 09:30 New York
- Venue: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig), Leyptsig
- Weather: 9° · precip. 88% · wind 3.5 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 23.10 09:50
Market preference and goal expectations
Leipzig are clear favourites in 1X2, with a margin-free home-win probability of 66.6%. The draw is assessed at 17.8% and an away win at 15.7%. The market favours Leipzig much more strongly than the one-point table gap suggests, with their contrasting home and away records helping explain the difference.
Over 3.5 goals carries a 55.3% probability, while BTTS is assessed at 66.4%. That BTTS expectation contrasts with Leipzig’s clean home league record, while Elversberg have seen goals at both ends more often. None of the listed markets has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.3
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 71%
- Market estimate
- 71%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.3
- Potential win
- 30 $
- Status
- pending
