Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger: Bundesliga Match Prediction
Paderborn 07
HamburgerMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.27 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.42 pending
Paderborn host Hamburger at Home Deluxe Arena on 24 October in Bundesliga round seven. The hosts sit 16th on five points, while the visitors are ninth on nine. Paderborn need points to move away from the bottom three; Hamburger arrive on nine points after three straight league wins.
Paderborn: uneven scoring and little defensive cover
Recent results and home returns
Paderborn’s last five matches brought two wins, one draw and two defeats. That includes a friendly victory over D.C. United. Their latest league outing ended 2:2 at Werder Bremen, following a 0:2 home defeat to Stuttgart. At home in the league, they have one win and two losses, scoring three goals and conceding four.
Strengths and weaknesses
- The 3:1 win over Hoffenheim shows their attacking ceiling, but accounts for three of their five league goals.
- Only one clean sheet in six league games leaves little margin for an attack averaging 0.83 goals.
Availability and attacking options
Lasse Eickel is unavailable with a back problem. Steffen Tigges has one goal and one assist in two league appearances; Stefano Marino has one goal in two.
- Werder Bremenaway2:2
- VfB Stuttgarthome0:2
- D.C. Unitedaway1:0
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimhome3:1
- Borussia Dortmundaway0:3
Hamburger: winning momentum, costly away concessions
Form beyond the season totals
Hamburger have won four consecutive matches across all competitions, including a friendly against Copenhagen. Their three straight league wins culminated in a 1:0 victory over Stuttgart.
Where the balance remains fragile
- Three league away games have produced one win, two defeats and nine goals conceded.
- Four of six league fixtures finished with Over 2.5 goals, compared with three of six for Paderborn.
Injuries and key contributors
Captain Nicolai Remberg is out with a torn cruciate ligament. Patson Daka has a muscle-fibre injury and Bakery Jatta an adductor injury; Luis Lemke is doubtful after being hurt against Stuttgart. Miro Muheim leads their league scoring with two goals and also has one assist. Yussuf Poulsen and Terem Moffi have one goal each.
- VfB Stuttgarthome1:0
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimaway3:2
- Copenhagenhome2:0
- 1. Kolnhome2:1
- RasenBallsport Leipzigaway0:5
Previous meetings favour the hosts
Paderborn have won four of the seven official meetings in the past five years, drawing two and losing one. The two latest encounters at Paderborn ended in home wins without conceding, most recently 2:0 in March 2025. All seven were in the second tier, so the historical edge comes from a different competitive setting.
- 02.03.2025Paderborn 072:0HamburgerGermany. 2. Bundesliga
- 28.09.2024Hamburger2:2Paderborn 07Germany. 2. Bundesliga
- 10.05.2024Paderborn 071:0HamburgerGermany. 2. Bundesliga
- 09.12.2023Hamburger1:2Paderborn 07Germany. 2. Bundesliga
- 05.05.2023Hamburger2:2Paderborn 07Germany. 2. Bundesliga
A late winner shaped the latest result
Muheim scored in the 88th minute against Stuttgart, securing Hamburger’s latest three points. That timing distinguishes a narrow success from a comfortable one: their winning sequence has continued, but the most recent breakthrough came close to full time. No expert opinions have been supplied.
Our pick: Paderborn to score twice
Our selection is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.35. Hamburger have conceded nine goals in three Bundesliga away matches, so their winning run does not erase the weakness most relevant to this bet. That supports targeting home goals rather than the match winner.
The hosts’ five goals in six league games are the main reservation: this is not a bet on a consistently productive attack. Yet their latest 2:2 at Bremen offers a recent example of the required return. According to media reports, Hamburger captain Nicolai Remberg is out with a torn cruciate ligament, while Patson Daka and Bakery Jatta are also unavailable; those absences reduce the visitors’ options, without guaranteeing defensive mistakes. A plausible score is 2:1.
Betting conclusion
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.35 needs two home goals to win, with exactly one returning the stake. That protection matters given Paderborn’s modest scoring average, while Hamburger’s away concessions support the two-goal target.
FAQ
When does Paderborn 07 — Hamburger kick off?
The match starts on 24.10.2026 at 09:30 (New York), Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn).
What is the prediction for Paderborn 07 — Hamburger?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.35.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Paderborn 07 win — 40%, draw — 26%, Hamburger win — 34%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Werder Bremenaway2:2
- VfB Stuttgarthome0:2
- D.C. Unitedaway1:0
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimhome3:1
- Borussia Dortmundaway0:3
- VfB Stuttgarthome1:0
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimaway3:2
- Copenhagenhome2:0
- 1. Kolnhome2:1
- RasenBallsport Leipzigaway0:5
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 9 | Hamburger | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6:15 | 9 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16:12 | 8 |
| 15 | Schalke 04 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4:7 | 5 |
| 16 | Paderborn 07 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:9 | 5 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:17 | 5 |
Head-to-head
- 02.03.2025Paderborn 072:0HamburgerGermany. 2. Bundesliga
- 28.09.2024Hamburger2:2Paderborn 07Germany. 2. Bundesliga
- 10.05.2024Paderborn 071:0HamburgerGermany. 2. Bundesliga
- 09.12.2023Hamburger1:2Paderborn 07Germany. 2. Bundesliga
- 05.05.2023Hamburger2:2Paderborn 07Germany. 2. Bundesliga
About the match
- 24 October · 09:30 New York
- Venue: Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn), Paderborn
- Weather: 11° · precip. 0% · wind 5.4 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 24.10 04:10
A narrow home preference in the market
Paderborn are the 1X2 favourites at 42.6%, ahead of Hamburger at 32.4%, with the draw at 25%. This is a modest home preference rather than a strong expectation of victory. None of the listed markets has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
The market assigns 60.1% to Over 2.5 goals and 62.8% to BTTS. The latter contrasts with both teams scoring in only two of each side’s six league matches. Defensive concessions help explain the goal-market emphasis, but those short season samples have not yet shown frequent scoring by both sides in the same game.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.35
- Odds at prediction
- 1.3
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 73%
- Market estimate
- 70%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.3
- Potential win
- 30 $
- Status
- pending
