Bundesliga Match Prediction: Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
Freiburg
Bayern MunichMore picks
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4) 1.25 void
Match result
Freiburg 1:3 Bayern Munich (0:2, 1:1)
In Germany. Bundesliga, Bayern Munich secured a victory against Freiburg with a final score of 1:3 (0:2, 1:1). The visiting team managed to score three goals during the match. As a result, our prediction for Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) was successful, and the bet won.
Our prediction: Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) at 1.25 — the bet won.
Our prediction: Yellow Cards: Total Under (4) at 1.25 — the bet was void.
Freiburg host Bayern Munich at Europa Park on 25 October, with third place facing the Bundesliga leaders. One point separates them after six rounds, and a home win would take Freiburg above Bayern.
Freiburg: home strength meets defensive leakage
Recent results and scoring patterns
Freiburg followed wins over Luzern, Schalke and Jablonec with defeats at Leverkusen and Monaco, without a clean sheet.
At home in the league, they have three wins from three, with 11 goals scored and two conceded.
Strengths and pressure points
- Four league wins have brought 13 points.
- They average 2.5 league goals across six matches.
- Over 2.5 goals occurred in five league games; BTTS landed in four.
Availability and attacking options
Florent Muslija, Bruno Ogbus and Berkay Yilmaz are unavailable. Philipp Treu is expected back at right-back, with Derry Scherhant returning in attack. Scherhant, Maximilian Eggestein and Keisuke Goto each have one league goal.
- AS Monacoaway0:3
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway1:2
- Jablonechome3:2
- Schalke 04home2:1
- Luzernhome4:2
Bayern: prolific overall, less decisive away
Unbeaten results conceal dropped points
Bayern have two wins and three draws in their last five matches. Their latest outing ended 2:2 against Arsenal.
They have 14 league points and a 22:5 goal difference. Away from home, their league record is one win and two draws, with four goals scored and three conceded.
Where the balance shifts
- Bayern average 3.67 league goals, above Freiburg's scoring rate.
- They are unbeaten after six league fixtures, with four wins and two draws.
- Five league matches exceeded 2.5 goals, while four featured BTTS.
Absences affect creation and width
Luis Diaz is out for around six weeks with a hamstring injury. The winger has three goals and one assist in two league appearances. Joshua Kimmich is unavailable after a family tragedy.
Harry Kane has one goal and four assists in two appearances; Nathaniel Brown has one of each.
- Arsenalhome2:2
- RasenBallsport Leipzighome6:1
- Vikingaway3:3
- Augsburgaway2:2
- Union Berlinhome7:0
Head-to-head: Bayern hold the advantage
Bayern have won nine of the 11 official meetings over five years, with one draw and one Freiburg victory. Freiburg's last success was the April 2023 cup tie; their latest home meeting ended in a 2:3 defeat.
- 04.04.2026Freiburg2:3Bayern MunichGermany. Bundesliga
- 22.11.2025Bayern Munich6:2FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 25.01.2025Freiburg1:2Bayern MunichGermany. Bundesliga
- 01.09.2024Bayern Munich2:0FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 01.03.2024Freiburg2:2Bayern MunichGermany. Bundesliga
Coaching disruption before the trip
Vincent Kompany was hospitalised after collapsing following training and will miss the match. Max Eberl says his condition is stable, although recovery will take weeks. The existing coaching staff will oversee preparations and match organisation; Eberl has publicly backed that arrangement and ruled out changes.
Line-ups
Freiburg
Starting XI: 1. Mio Backhaus, 3. Philipp Lienhart, 6. Patrick Osterhage, 7. Derry Scherhant, 8. Maximilian Eggestein, 9. Lucas Holer, 14. Yuito Suzuki, 19. Jan-Niklas Beste, 28. Matthias Ginter, 29. Philipp Treu, 33. Jordy Makengo
Substitutes: 17. Lukas Kuebler, 20. Rihito Yamamoto, 21. Florian Muller, 22. Cyriaque Irie, 30. Christian Gunter, 31. Igor Matanovic, 32. Vincenzo Grifo, 37. Maximilian Rosenfelder, 42. Keisuke Goto
Coach: Julian Schuster
Bayern Munich
Starting XI: 2. Dayot Upamecano, 4. Jonathan Tah, 7. Serge Gnabry, 8. Tom Bischof, 9. Harry Kane, 11. Nathaniel Brown, 17. Michael Olise, 27. Konrad Laimer, 40. Jonas Urbig, 42. Lennart Karl, 44. Josip Stanisic
Substitutes: 19. Alphonso Davies, 21. Hiroki Ito, 23. Sacha Boey, 26. Sven Ulreich, 30. Cassiano Kiala, 34. Ismael Saibari, 35. Jannis Gerhard Bartl, 46. Tim Binder, 47. David Michael Santos Daiber
Coach: Aaron Danks
Bayern's goals are the stronger angle
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) 1.25. Bayern have scored 22 goals in six Bundesliga rounds and reached at least two in each of their last five matches across all competitions. That makes their attacking output a better focus than an away win: this bet can land even if Freiburg take points.
Freiburg have conceded in five successive matches and enter this fixture after two defeats. Bayern therefore face a defence that has recently struggled to shut opponents out. The caution is their away league return: four goals in three games is well below their overall scoring pace. According to media reports, Luis Diaz is out with a hamstring injury, reducing their attacking options. Even with that absence, the visitors' recent scoring sequence supports a two-goal target rather than a heavier requirement. A 1:2 scoreline is our prediction.
The final call
Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) 1.25 is the selection. Bayern's repeated two-goal returns outweigh the concern over their lower away output, without requiring them to secure all three points.
Team form
- AS Monacoaway0:3
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway1:2
- Jablonechome3:2
- Schalke 04home2:1
- Luzernhome4:2
- Arsenalhome2:2
- RasenBallsport Leipzighome6:1
- Vikingaway3:3
- Augsburgaway2:2
- Union Berlinhome7:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:6 | 17 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | 17 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | 13 |
Head-to-head
- 04.04.2026Freiburg2:3Bayern MunichGermany. Bundesliga
- 22.11.2025Bayern Munich6:2FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 25.01.2025Freiburg1:2Bayern MunichGermany. Bundesliga
- 01.09.2024Bayern Munich2:0FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 01.03.2024Freiburg2:2Bayern MunichGermany. Bundesliga
About the match
- 25 October · 12:30 New York
- Venue: Europa Park (Freiburg im Breisgau), Frayburg-im-Braysgau
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market confidence rests with the visitors
Bayern are the clear 1X2 favourites at 69.7%, against 16.4% for the draw and 13.9% for Freiburg. The market places more weight on their overall scoring record and head-to-head advantage than on their away results. None of the lines has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
Over 3.5 carries a 57.5% probability and BTTS 66.9%. The defensive records favour goals bets, while Bayern's lower away scoring rate limits the case for Over 3.5.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1.5)
- Odds
- 1.25
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 74%
- Market estimate
- 68%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.25
- Potential win
- 25 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.35
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +25 $