Elversberg vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 Prediction in the Bundesliga
Elversberg
1. FSV Mainz 05More picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.26 won
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.4 won
Match result
Elversberg 4:1 1. FSV Mainz 05 (3:0, 1:1)
In the Germany Bundesliga match, Elversberg defeated 1. FSV Mainz 05 with a final score of 4:1. The home side took control early with a 3:0 score in the first period, while the second period finished 1:1. Our prediction for this game was Handicap 2 (0), and the bet lost.
Our prediction: Handicap 2 (0) at 1.6 — the bet lost.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (1) at 1.26 — the bet won.
Our prediction: Yellow Cards: Total Under (4.5) at 1.4 — the bet won.
Elversberg host Mainz at Waldstadion an der Kaiserlinde on 30 October in Bundesliga round eight. Both have 10 points, with Mainz seventh and Elversberg eighth. Both arrive after midweek cup defeats.
Elversberg: home scoring offsets defensive problems
Recent results and venue split
Elversberg have lost four of their last five matches across all competitions. Their latest league results were a 0:1 defeat at Union Berlin, a 4:3 home win over Augsburg and a 0:4 loss at Leipzig, followed by a 0:2 cup exit at Darmstadt. Their three Bundesliga home games have produced two wins, eight goals scored and seven conceded.
Strengths and weaknesses
- Season scoring average: 1.71 goals per league match.
- Defensive average: 2.14 conceded, with just one clean sheet in seven.
- Five of seven league fixtures finished with Over 2.5 goals.
Availability and attacking contributors
Jan Gyamerah is out with a muscle injury; Vincent Wagner fears torn muscle fibres or something more serious. Francis Onyeka is doubtful with a head injury, while Luca Schnellbacher has an infection. Lukas Pinckert is suspended following a cup red card. Lukas Petkov has one goal and one assist in three league appearances; Lasse Gunther and Maximilian Rohr each have one goal.
- Darmstadt 98away0:2
- RasenBallsport Leipzigaway0:4
- Augsburghome4:3
- Union Berlinaway0:1
- Waldhof Mannheimaway1:2
Mainz: a stronger league record on the road
Form behind the away results
Mainz have won all three Bundesliga away games, scoring 10 goals and conceding three. Their latest league trip brought a 1:0 win at Schalke, between home defeats against Leverkusen, 3:4, and Bremen, 2:3. A subsequent 0:2 cup loss at Bochum means their away league record does not extend to every competition. Across their last five matches, including a friendly, they have two wins and three defeats.
Attacking output and defensive contrast
- Mainz have scored 16 league goals, averaging 2.29 per match.
- Three clean sheets in seven show a greater capacity to shut opponents out than Elversberg.
- They have conceded 13 league goals, averaging 1.86.
- BTTS has landed in four of seven league matches.
Missing players and returning options
Dominik Kohr is out with an ankle injury, Paul Nebel with a groin injury, and Silas is also unavailable. Robin Zentner is doubtful with a hand problem. Eric Martel and Silvan Widmer have resumed training; Senne Lynen, Keke Topp, Niklas Stark and Moussa N’Diaye have returned to the squad. Anthony Caci leads the listed contributors with three goals and two assists in three appearances; Phillip Tietz and Jae-Sung Lee have one goal each.
- VfL Bochumaway0:2
- Werder Bremenhome2:3
- Schalke 04away1:0
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenhome3:4
- Waldhof Mannheimaway3:0
One previous meeting offers limited guidance
Mainz won the only official meeting in the last five years, a 1:0 away victory in the German Cup on 12 August 2023. That single, low-scoring encounter is too small a sample to establish a recurring scoring pattern or a reliable matchup advantage.
- 12.08.2023Elversberg0:11. FSV Mainz 05Germany DFB Pokal
- 08.08.2021Elversberg2:31. FSV Mainz 05Germany DFB Pokal
Team selections remain unconfirmed
Line-ups
Elversberg
Starting XI: 7. Maurice Krattenmacher, 8. Lukasz Poreba, 19. Lukas Pinckert, 20. Nicolas Kristof, 21. Lasse Gunther, 25. Lukas Petkov, 26. Luca Sirch, 31. Maximilian Rohr, 40. Francis Onyeka, 42. David Mokwa Ntusu, 43. Felix Keidel
Substitutes: 2. Nicholas Mickelson, 3. Florian Le Joncour, 6. Amara Conde, 9. Noel Futkeu, 15. Raif Adam, 17. Frederik Schmahl, 24. Luca Schnellbacher, 28. Tim Boss, 39. William Cole Campbell
Coach: Vincent Wagner
1. FSV Mainz 05
Starting XI: 2. Phillipp Mwene, 4. Stefan Posch, 6. Kaishu Sano, 8. Paul Nebel, 9. Phillip Tietz, 10. Nadiem Amiri, 19. Anthony Caci, 21. Danny da Costa, 23. Sheraldo Becker, 27. Robin Zentner, 48. Kacper Potulski
Substitutes: 1. Alexander Schwolow, 3. Fabio Gruber, 5. Eric Martel, 7. Jae-Sung Lee, 11. Ransford Konigsdorffer, 15. Lennard Maloney, 16. Stefan Bell, 17. Benedict Hollerbach, 30. Silvan Widmer
Coach: Urs Fischer
Our Prediction
Elversberg and 1. FSV Mainz 05 enter this Bundesliga meeting level on 10 points, but the matchup strongly favors the visitors’ away profile. Mainz have won all three league games on the road, scoring 10 goals and conceding only 3. Elversberg, by contrast, have lost 4 of their last 5 matches in all competitions and have conceded in each of those games. Their defensive depth is further weakened by Jan Gyamers’s muscle injury or potentially more serious injury and Lukas Pinkert’s suspension; Francis Onyeaka and Luka Schnellbacher are also doubtful, according to media reports.
Our selection is Handicap 2 (0) 1.6. The draw protection is important because the market gives Mainz the highest 1X2 probability at 45.5%, while Elversberg are rated at 30.8%. Mainz also have several players returning after injuries, including Eric Martel, Silvan Widmer, Sennе Lynen, Keke Topp, Niklas Stark and Moussa N'Diaye. Dominik Kohr, Paul Nebel and Silas remain unavailable, but the visitors’ away numbers and deeper returning options outweigh those losses. Expected score: Elversberg 1:2 Mainz 05.
Conclusion
Handicap 2 (0) 1.6 is the preferred option. Mainz’s perfect away league record and Elversberg’s defensive absences provide the clearest statistical edge, with the stake refunded if the match ends level.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Darmstadt 98away0:2
- RasenBallsport Leipzigaway0:4
- Augsburghome4:3
- Union Berlinaway0:1
- Waldhof Mannheimaway1:2
- VfL Bochumaway0:2
- Werder Bremenhome2:3
- Schalke 04away1:0
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenhome3:4
- Waldhof Mannheimaway3:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 18:15 | 9 |
Head-to-head
- 12.08.2023Elversberg0:11. FSV Mainz 05Germany DFB Pokal
- 08.08.2021Elversberg2:31. FSV Mainz 05Germany DFB Pokal
About the match
- 30 October · 15:30 New York
- Venue: Waldstadion an der Kaiserlinde (Spiesen-Elversberg)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Mainz favoured, but below a majority probability
The 1X2 market puts Mainz ahead at 45.5%, against 30.8% for Elversberg and 23.7% for the draw. The visitors’ perfect away league return helps explain that preference, but the pricing stops short of making them more likely to win than not. None of the listed markets has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
BTTS is assessed at 65.5%, while Under 3.5 goals holds a narrower advantage at 56.2%. Those positions can coexist: goals for both teams do not require a four-goal total. Both clubs have exceeded 2.5 goals in five of seven league fixtures, although seven matches remain a limited sample for judging longer-term scoring tendencies.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (0)
- Odds
- 1.55
- Odds at prediction
- 1.6
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 59%
- Market estimate
- 66%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.55
- Potential win
- 55 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.43
- Status
- lost
- Profit
- −100 $