Borussia Monchengladbach vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction: Bundesliga
Borussia Monchengladbach
TSG 1899 HoffenheimBorussia Monchengladbach host TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at Ista Borussia-Park on October 18 in Bundesliga round six. The hosts are seeking their first points, while the visitors can move further clear of last place.
Gladbach: scoring at home has not been enough
Recent results and defensive balance
Gladbach sit 18th after five league defeats. Their last five games across all competitions brought one win, one draw and three losses. The win over Sportfreunde Siegen and draw with St. Pauli were friendlies; their latest league match ended in a 2:1 defeat at Koln.
- Both home league fixtures ended in defeat, with six goals scored and eight conceded.
- All five league matches went Over 2.5 goals, and three featured BTTS (both teams to score).
- Gladbach have no league clean sheets and have conceded 3.6 goals per match, though the sample is small.
Seven absences and one fitness decision
Tim Kleindienst, Ko Itakura and Franck Honorat are out with muscle injuries. Jan Leszczynski has a knee injury, Fritz Fleck a strain, Jens Castrop a shoulder injury and Enzo Leopold a cruciate ligament injury.
Nicolas Kuhn remains doubtful despite training with the squad for most of the week; Kevin Diks is available after load management.
- 1. Kolnaway1:2
- St. Pauliaway1:1
- Sportfreunde Siegenaway3:0
- 1. FSV Mainz 05home3:4
- Freiburgaway0:5
Hoffenheim: attacking output, little protection
Four straight defeats across two competitions
Hoffenheim are 17th with three points. Their last five matches brought one win and four defeats. Their league goal difference is better than Gladbach's.
- Hoffenheim have scored nine league goals, averaging 1.8 per match.
- Both away league appearances ended in defeat, with three goals scored and six conceded.
- BTTS and Over 2.5 goals have each occurred in all five league fixtures.
- Hoffenheim have conceded 13 league goals and kept no clean sheets.
Defensive absences and Kramaric's return
Bernardo is suspended following his dismissal in the previous league game. Albian Hajdari is out with a foot injury and Patrick Wimmer with a thigh injury. Andrej Kramaric has returned to the starting lineup after groin surgery.
Christian Ilzer said several players were below optimal condition after the European match.
- Besiktashome2:3
- Hamburgerhome2:3
- Paderborn 07away1:3
- OFI Creteaway0:2
- VfB Stuttgarthome2:1
Recent meetings favour Gladbach, with large scorelines
Gladbach have won six of the 10 official meetings over five years, drawing twice and losing twice. In 2026, Hoffenheim won 5:1 in January before Gladbach won 4:0 at home in May.
- 16.05.2026Borussia Monchengladbach4:0TSG 1899 HoffenheimGermany. Bundesliga
- 14.01.2026TSG 1899 Hoffenheim5:1Borussia MonchengladbachGermany. Bundesliga
- 03.05.2025Borussia Monchengladbach4:4TSG 1899 HoffenheimGermany. Bundesliga
- 21.12.2024TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1:2Borussia MonchengladbachGermany. Bundesliga
- 20.04.2024TSG 1899 Hoffenheim4:3Borussia MonchengladbachGermany. Bundesliga
Ilzer and Baumann demand a response
Ilzer's priority is to lift Hoffenheim out of their difficult spell and quickly remove the burden of defeats. Oliver Baumann called this fixture extremely important and urged a rapid response. Their comments acknowledge the pressure on the visitors, without showing that the team's problems have been corrected.
Our pick: protection against a draw
Our bet is Handicap 2 (0) 1.59. Gladbach have conceded 18 goals in five league games, and Ko Itakura, Tim Kleindienst and Franck Honorat are absent through injury. Hoffenheim can exploit that defensive vulnerability, with Andrej Kramaric back in the starting lineup after groin surgery to strengthen their attacking choices.
The visitors are not reliable enough to back without draw protection: they have lost both away league fixtures, conceding six goals, and must manage a short turnaround after Thursday's European match. Bernardo's suspension and Albian Hajdari's foot injury also reduce their defensive options. That makes the refund on a draw central to this selection rather than a minor precaution. Predicted score: 1:2.
Final betting verdict
Handicap 2 (0) 1.59 backs Hoffenheim to exploit Gladbach's weakened side while returning the stake if the match finishes level. The visitors' own defensive absences make that protection preferable to relying on an outright away win.
FAQ
When does Borussia Monchengladbach — TSG 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
The match starts on 18.10.2026 at 11:30 (New York), Ista Borussia-Park (Monchengladbach).
What is the prediction for Borussia Monchengladbach — TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our pick is Handicap 2 (0) at 1.59.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Borussia Monchengladbach win — 31%, draw — 23%, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win — 46%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- 1. Kolnaway1:2
- St. Pauliaway1:1
- Sportfreunde Siegenaway3:0
- 1. FSV Mainz 05home3:4
- Freiburgaway0:5
- Besiktashome2:3
- Hamburgerhome2:3
- Paderborn 07away1:3
- OFI Creteaway0:2
- VfB Stuttgarthome2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5:17 | 4 |
| 17 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9:13 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7:18 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 16.05.2026Borussia Monchengladbach4:0TSG 1899 HoffenheimGermany. Bundesliga
- 14.01.2026TSG 1899 Hoffenheim5:1Borussia MonchengladbachGermany. Bundesliga
- 03.05.2025Borussia Monchengladbach4:4TSG 1899 HoffenheimGermany. Bundesliga
- 21.12.2024TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1:2Borussia MonchengladbachGermany. Bundesliga
- 20.04.2024TSG 1899 Hoffenheim4:3Borussia MonchengladbachGermany. Bundesliga
About the match
- 18 October · 11:30 New York
- Venue: Ista Borussia-Park (Monchengladbach)
- Weather: 11° · precip. 14% · wind 1.8 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 17.10 11:40
Away favouritism without majority confidence
Hoffenheim lead the 1X2 market at 45.9%, below a majority probability. BTTS is assessed at 68.9%, while Under 3.5 goals has a narrow 52.2% edge over Over. None of the listed markets has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
The market favours both teams scoring more strongly than a high total; away favouritism is less decisive.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.59
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 60%
- Market estimate
- 60%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.59
- Potential win
- 59 $
- Status
- pending
