Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart: Bundesliga Match Prediction
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfB StuttgartBayer Leverkusen host Stuttgart at the BayArena in Bundesliga round eight on 31 October. Fourth-placed Bayer are four points behind Bayern Munich; Stuttgart sit 15th, level on points with 16th-placed Schalke. The hosts are defending their place near the top, while the visitors need points to move clear of the relegation positions.
Leverkusen: home strength, defensive swings
Recent results and scoring trends
Bayer have won four of their last five matches in all competitions, scoring 13 goals and conceding six. Their latest two results show the contrast: a 3:0 defeat at Hoffenheim followed by a 5:2 cup win over Nurnberg. In the league, their home record is three wins from three with an 8:1 aggregate score; away, they have one win, no draws and three defeats from four matches.
Where Bayer gain and lose ground
- Six of seven league fixtures have exceeded 2.5 goals.
- Two clean sheets leave a defence conceding 1.71 goals per league match exposed beyond its strong home return.
- Patrik Schick has two goals and one assist in three appearances; Ibrahim Maza has one goal and one assist.
Availability and selection
Moussa Diaby is out with a hamstring injury until after the November international break. Eliesse Ben Seghir and Christian Kofane also have muscle injuries; Terrier, Doue and Eichhorn are unavailable. Loic Bade remains doubtful after a head injury and cut. Montrell Culbreath is undergoing individual rehabilitation for a foot injury, although that update referred to the Mainz fixture. No probable XI, formation or suspension details are supplied.
- Nurnberghome5:2
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimaway0:3
- OFI Creteaway2:0
- Freiburghome2:1
- Lech Poznanaway4:0
Stuttgart: European resistance, league fragility
Form across competitions
Stuttgart's last five matches brought two wins, one draw and two defeats. A 3:0 win at Slovan Bratislava and a 1:1 draw with Atletico Madrid contrasted with league defeats against Hamburg and Borussia Monchengladbach. Wednesday's 1:0 cup victory at Paderborn ended their three-match winless run.
Attacking output and away weaknesses
- Four league away games have produced one win, three defeats and a 4:8 goal balance.
- BTTS has landed in four of seven league matches, but Stuttgart have kept just one clean sheet.
- Ermedin Demirovic scored both goals against Monchengladbach; Chris Fuhrich and Julian Chabot each have one league goal.
Personnel and pressure
No injury, suspension, probable lineup or formation information is available for Stuttgart. Five defeats in seven league games have drawn concern from the board and boos from supporters. Wolgemuth nevertheless described the Atletico draw as their best performance of the season: their European displays have been stronger than their domestic results.
- Paderborn 07away1:0
- Borussia Monchengladbachhome2:3
- Atletico Madridhome1:1
- Hamburgeraway0:1
- Slovan Bratislavaaway3:0
Recent meetings challenge the longer record
Leverkusen lead the last 11 official meetings with five wins against Stuttgart's two, alongside four draws. Yet Stuttgart won both encounters in 2026, 4:1 here and 3:1 at home. That sequence contains 32 goals, although it spans several seasons.
- 09.05.2026VfB Stuttgart3:1Bayer 04 LeverkusenGermany. Bundesliga
- 10.01.2026Bayer 04 Leverkusen1:4VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga
- 16.03.2025VfB Stuttgart3:4Bayer 04 LeverkusenGermany. Bundesliga
- 01.11.2024Bayer 04 Leverkusen0:0VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga
- 17.08.2024Bayer 04 Leverkusen3:2VfB StuttgartGermany DFL-Super Cup
Short recovery before the league returns
Both clubs played cup ties on 28 October, ahead of their league meeting on 31 October. Dry conditions are forecast at kick-off, with a temperature of 13°C and wind of 2.7 m/s.
Our pick: Bayer to score twice
Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.36. Leverkusen have scored 16 goals in seven Bundesliga matches, including eight across three home wins. That is 2.67 goals per home game against Stuttgart's average of 2.00 conceded across four away fixtures. The hosts' scoring target is more persuasive than relying on them to secure the result.
Stuttgart have lost five of seven league games and kept just one clean sheet. Bayer's five-goal cup response adds weight to the attacking case, although weaker opposition limits that comparison. According to media reports, Moussa Diaby and Eliesse Ben Seghir are unavailable through injury, reducing the hosts' attacking options. Seven league games remain a small sample, so the scoring averages should not be treated as guarantees. Predicted score: 2:1.
Final verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.36 targets Bayer's home scoring against Stuttgart's away defensive record. It needs two home goals, without requiring Leverkusen to win or keep a clean sheet.
FAQ
When does Bayer 04 Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart kick off?
The match starts on 31.10.2026 at 10:30 (New York), BayArena (Leverkusen).
What is the prediction for Bayer 04 Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.36.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win — 56%, draw — 21%, VfB Stuttgart win — 23%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Nurnberghome5:2
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimaway0:3
- OFI Creteaway2:0
- Freiburghome2:1
- Lech Poznanaway4:0
- Paderborn 07away1:0
- Borussia Monchengladbachhome2:3
- Atletico Madridhome1:1
- Hamburgeraway0:1
- Slovan Bratislavaaway3:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | 13 |
| 5 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | 12 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:17 | 8 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | 6 |
| 16 | Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:7 | 6 |
Head-to-head
- 09.05.2026VfB Stuttgart3:1Bayer 04 LeverkusenGermany. Bundesliga
- 10.01.2026Bayer 04 Leverkusen1:4VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga
- 16.03.2025VfB Stuttgart3:4Bayer 04 LeverkusenGermany. Bundesliga
- 01.11.2024Bayer 04 Leverkusen0:0VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga
- 17.08.2024Bayer 04 Leverkusen3:2VfB StuttgartGermany DFL-Super Cup
About the match
- 31 October · 10:30 New York
- Venue: BayArena (Leverkusen), Leverkuzen
- Weather: 12° · precip. 0% · wind 1.7 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 31.10 05:10
Market favours Bayer without ruling out resistance
Leverkusen are the 1X2 favourites at 53.2%, compared with Stuttgart's 25.2% and a 21.6% draw probability. The home advantage is clear, but the market stops well short of treating victory as secure. All listed lines have remained broadly unchanged over the past 24 hours.
BTTS carries a 69.9% probability, whereas Over 3.5 goals has a narrower edge at 52.8%. Those are distinct expectations: both attacks finding a goal is priced much more strongly than the match reaching four goals. The seven-game league samples are still too small to treat either team's scoring frequencies as settled patterns.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.36
- Odds at prediction
- 1.41
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 67%
- Market estimate
- 69%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
