Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Freiburg prediction in Germany Bundesliga
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FreiburgBayer 04 Leverkusen host Freiburg at BayArena in the sixth Bundesliga round. Fourth-placed Bayer trail the leaders by three points; a home win would bring them level.
Leverkusen’s attacking run and home control
Recent form and tactical profile
Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last five matches, with four wins and one draw. They scored in every game, including four away to Lech Poznan and four at Mainz. Two ended with a clean sheet.
At home in the Bundesliga, Bayer have won both matches without conceding, scoring six times. Away, they conceded three at Mainz and two at Augsburg. Their league record stands at 10 points and a 14:8 goal balance, with BTTS (both teams to score) in three of five matches and Over 2.5 goals in four. Their defensive control has been stronger at BayArena than away.
Expected personnel and absences
Patrik Schick, Robert Andrich and Jarell Quansah each have one tournament goal.
- Lech Poznanaway4:0
- 1. FSV Mainz 05away4:3
- RasenBallsport Leipzighome2:0
- Celjehome2:0
- Augsburgaway2:2
Freiburg’s leading record meets a tougher away test
Results, scoring and defensive trends
Freiburg lead the Bundesliga with 13 points from four wins and one draw, scoring 14 goals and conceding four. Across all competitions, their last five matches also produced four wins and one draw. They scored in each but conceded in four, including twice against Eintracht Frankfurt and twice against Jablonec. In the league, BTTS landed in three of five matches and Over 2.5 goals in four.
Away in the Bundesliga, Freiburg have one win and one draw, with three goals scored and two conceded. Their away scoring rate is lower than their overall league average. Recent home victories over Borussia Monchengladbach and Schalke, alongside the Conference League win over Jablonec, account for much of their attacking momentum; the repeated concessions leave less room for error.
Unavailable players and squad balance
Yuito Suzuki is suspended after his dismissal against Schalke. Florent Muslija has a cruciate ligament injury, Bruno Ogbus has a muscle injury, and Berkay Yilmaz is recovering from dental surgery. Derry Scherhant and Niklas Beste are doubtful after knocks, though the coach hopes both recover in time.
Maximilian Eggestein and Keisuke Goto each have one league goal, while Vincenzo Grifo has one assist.
- Jablonechome3:2
- Schalke 04home2:1
- Luzernhome4:2
- Eintracht Frankfurtaway2:2
- Borussia Monchengladbachhome5:0
Leverkusen hold the longer-term head-to-head edge
Across the last 10 official meetings, Bayer have won five, drawn three and lost two.
The latest meeting finished 3:3 at Freiburg. Leverkusen won the last three BayArena meetings 2:1, 5:1 and 2:0; the preceding home fixture ended in a 2:3 defeat.
- 07.03.2026Freiburg3:3Bayer 04 LeverkusenGermany. Bundesliga
- 26.10.2025Bayer 04 Leverkusen2:0FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 04.05.2025Freiburg2:2Bayer 04 LeverkusenGermany. Bundesliga
- 21.12.2024Bayer 04 Leverkusen5:1FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 17.03.2024Freiburg2:3Bayer 04 LeverkusenGermany. Bundesliga
Team news adds pressure to Freiburg’s selection
Freiburg face four confirmed absences and two late fitness checks, reducing Julian Schuster’s selection options.
Schuster highlighted Leverkusen’s recent cohesion and attacking quality. Freiburg’s reduced squad is a concern against an attack producing consistently.
Our Prediction
Our pick is Total Over (3.5) at 2.18. Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Freiburg have each scored 14 goals in five Bundesliga matches, averaging 2.8 goals per game. In four of five league fixtures for both teams, the total exceeded 2.5 goals. Leverkusen have scored in all five of their latest matches, while Freiburg have also found the net in each of their last five.
The attacking indicators are reinforced by the matchup. Leverkusen’s last two Bundesliga wins included 2:0 against Leipzig and then 4:3 at Mainz, while Freiburg’s recent fixtures ended 5:0, 2:2, 2:1 and 3:2. The last meeting finished 3:3, and the previous eight encounters produced several high-scoring results, including 5:1 and 3:3. Freiburg’s absences — Yuito Suzuki, Florent Muslija, Bruno Ogbus and Berkay Yilmaz — plus doubts over Derry Scherhant and Niklas Beste reduce their options, especially with an away test against Leverkusen. Expected score: 3:2.
Conclusion
Total Over (3.5) is the selection. Both attacks are producing consistently, four of five league matches for each side cleared 2.5 goals, and recent head-to-head results support a game reaching at least four goals.
FAQ
When does Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Freiburg kick off?
The match starts on 18.10.2026 at 09:30 (New York), BayArena (Leverkusen).
What is the prediction for Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Freiburg?
Our pick is Total Over (3.5) at 2.18.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win — 57%, draw — 22%, Freiburg win — 21%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Lech Poznanaway4:0
- 1. FSV Mainz 05away4:3
- RasenBallsport Leipzighome2:0
- Celjehome2:0
- Augsburgaway2:2
- Jablonechome3:2
- Schalke 04home2:1
- Luzernhome4:2
- Eintracht Frankfurtaway2:2
- Borussia Monchengladbachhome5:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14:4 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11:4 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern Munich | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16:4 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:8 | 10 |
| 5 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15:5 | 9 |
Head-to-head
- 07.03.2026Freiburg3:3Bayer 04 LeverkusenGermany. Bundesliga
- 26.10.2025Bayer 04 Leverkusen2:0FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 04.05.2025Freiburg2:2Bayer 04 LeverkusenGermany. Bundesliga
- 21.12.2024Bayer 04 Leverkusen5:1FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 17.03.2024Freiburg2:3Bayer 04 LeverkusenGermany. Bundesliga
About the match
- 18 October · 09:30 New York
- Venue: BayArena (Leverkusen), Leverkuzen
- Weather: 12° · precip. 6% · wind 2.9 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 12.10 17:10
Market view and line stability
The 1X2 market assigns Leverkusen a 56.7% home-win probability, with the draw at 22% and Freiburg at 21.3%. There has been no notable movement over the last 24 hours despite the visitors’ higher league position. The bookmaker’s margin is 1.6%.
Under 3.5 goals is rated at 56.5%, compared with 43.5% for Over 3.5, while BTTS is favored at 62.8%. The market therefore favors both sides scoring without the total necessarily exceeding three goals.
Our prediction
- Market
- Total Over (3.5)
- Current odds
- 2.18
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 51%
- Market estimate
- 43%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 2.18
- Potential win
- 118 $
- Status
- pending
