Augsburg vs Union Berlin: Bundesliga Match Prediction
Augsburg
Union BerlinMore picks
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.38 pending
Augsburg host Union Berlin at WWK Arena in Bundesliga round seven on 24 October. The hosts are tenth with eight points; the visitors are seventeenth on five. Union can draw level on points, while Augsburg can widen the gap to the relegation places.
Augsburg: scoring freely, conceding too often
Recent results and home form
Augsburg are winless in five matches across all competitions: three draws and two defeats. They lost 4:3 at Elversberg after drawing 2:2 with Bayern Munich. At home in the league, they are unbeaten with one win and two draws, scoring seven and conceding four.
Attacking output and defensive exposure
Augsburg have scored 16 league goals in six games, averaging 2.67, and conceded 12. All six matches went Over 2.5 goals, five featured BTTS, and one produced a clean sheet. Their scoring consistency has come without defensive protection, though the sample covers only six games.
Availability and selection
Steve Mounie, Tim Breithaupt, Noahkai Banks, Alexis Claude-Maurice, Sima Suso and Marius Wolf are unavailable. Finn Dahmen is training individually but is not expected to miss the match; Felix Wolf is nearing a training return. Rodrigo Ribeiro, Robin Fellhauer and Mert Komur each have one league goal from two appearances. The starting XI and formation are unconfirmed.
- Elversbergaway3:4
- Bayern Munichhome2:2
- Hertha BSChome2:2
- Werder Bremenaway2:3
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenhome2:2
Union Berlin: home recovery meets away weakness
A change in recent results
Union have two wins, a draw and two defeats in their last five outings. That sequence includes a friendly win at Rijeka. Their last two league fixtures were a 1:0 win over Elversberg and a goalless draw with Borussia Dortmund, both at home.
The gap between venues
Union have lost both league away games, scoring none and conceding 11, including a 7:0 defeat at Bayern. Across six league matches, they have scored five and conceded 17, keeping two clean sheets. Only two fixtures featured BTTS, while four went Over 2.5 goals: high totals have largely come from one-sided scoring.
Absences across the side
Andrej Ilic is out with food poisoning, Oliver Burke has an Achilles problem and Livan Burcu is absent. Stanley Nsoki, Andrik Markgraf, Marvin Friedrich and Mehi Grey are also unavailable; Josip Juranovic is doubtful and absent from the squad list. The attacking absences leave fewer options for the league’s only team yet to score away.
- Borussia Dortmundhome0:0
- Elversberghome1:0
- Rijekaaway1:0
- Bayern Munichaway0:7
- Schalke 04home1:3
Recent meetings temper Augsburg’s historical edge
Augsburg lead the nine official meetings over five years by four wins to two, with three draws. The latest three were a Union 4:0 win, a 1:1 draw and a Union 1:2 defeat. Four featured BTTS. Augsburg’s last two home meetings ended in a 1:2 defeat and a 1:1 draw.
- 16.05.2026Union Berlin4:0AugsburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 15.01.2026Augsburg1:1Union BerlinGermany. Bundesliga
- 17.05.2025Augsburg1:2Union BerlinGermany. Bundesliga
- 15.01.2025Union Berlin0:2AugsburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 12.04.2024Augsburg2:0Union BerlinGermany. Bundesliga
The coach’s message after consecutive clean sheets
Union coach Mauro Lustrinelli says euphoria within the squad is driving improvement. His side must now carry its defensive recovery from home matches into an away fixture.
Our Prediction
Augsburg’s home profile supports Handicap 1 (0) 1.39. They have not lost in three Bundesliga matches at the WWK Arena, collecting one win and two draws while scoring 7 and conceding 4. Their season attack has produced 16 goals in six league games, and Augsburg have scored in each of their last five matches, including three goals at Elversberg.
Union Berlin’s away record is the decisive contrast: two league trips, two defeats, 0 goals scored and 11 conceded. They are the only Bundesliga team yet to score away, while several absences reduce their options: Andre Ilic, Stanley Nsoki, Andrik Markgraf, Oliver Burke, Marvin Friedrich, Mehdi Gray and Livan Burcu are unavailable; Josip Juranovic is also doubtful. Augsburg have their own losses, including Steve Mounie, Tim Breithaupt, Noahkai Banks and Alexis Claude-Maurice, but the home scoring output remains stronger.
Conclusion
Handicap 1 (0) 1.39 is the preferred selection. Augsburg’s unbeaten home record and Union’s 0:11 away goal difference provide a clear margin of safety against a draw.
FAQ
When does Augsburg — Union Berlin kick off?
The match starts on 24.10.2026 at 09:30 (New York), WWK Arena (Augsburg).
What is the prediction for Augsburg — Union Berlin?
Our pick is Handicap 1 (0) at 1.39.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Augsburg win — 52%, draw — 23%, Union Berlin win — 25%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Elversbergaway3:4
- Bayern Munichhome2:2
- Hertha BSChome2:2
- Werder Bremenaway2:3
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenhome2:2
- Borussia Dortmundhome0:0
- Elversberghome1:0
- Rijekaaway1:0
- Bayern Munichaway0:7
- Schalke 04home1:3
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hamburger | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6:15 | 9 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16:12 | 8 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:16 | 8 |
| 16 | Paderborn 07 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:9 | 5 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:17 | 5 |
| 18 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11:22 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 16.05.2026Union Berlin4:0AugsburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 15.01.2026Augsburg1:1Union BerlinGermany. Bundesliga
- 17.05.2025Augsburg1:2Union BerlinGermany. Bundesliga
- 15.01.2025Union Berlin0:2AugsburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 12.04.2024Augsburg2:0Union BerlinGermany. Bundesliga
About the match
- 24 October · 09:30 New York
- Venue: WWK Arena (Augsburg), Augsburg
- Weather: 9° · precip. 23% · wind 4.4 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 23.10 09:50
A home favourite, but contrasting goal signals
The 1X2 market assigns Augsburg a 52.4% probability, compared with 23.1% for the draw and 24.6% for Union. None of the listed markets has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
BTTS is priced at a 64.1% probability, despite Union’s failure to score away. Under 3.5 goals is priced at 56.9%, with Augsburg’s high-scoring matches and Union’s recent clean sheets pointing in opposite directions.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 1 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.39
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Market estimate
- 68%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.39
- Potential win
- 39 $
- Status
- pending
