Augsburg vs Freiburg: Bundesliga Match Prediction
Augsburg
FreiburgAugsburg host Freiburg at WWK Arena in Bundesliga round 8. The hosts sit ninth on 9 points, while the visitors are third with 13, four behind leaders Bayern Munich. Augsburg can narrow the gap to Bayern Munich to five points; Freiburg are defending their place near the top after consecutive league defeats.
Augsburg: unbeaten at home, but conceding regularly
Recent form and home record
Augsburg have one win, three draws and one defeat in their last five matches across all competitions, including a friendly. They scored 12 goals and conceded 11, finishing that sequence with a 4:2 cup win at Sonnenhof. Their four home league games have produced one victory and three draws, with eight goals scored and five conceded: opponents have taken points here, but none has won.
Attacking output and defensive weaknesses
- Seventeen league goals in seven games put their scoring average at 2.43.
- BTTS has occurred in six of seven league fixtures, with only one clean sheet.
- Six league matches exceeded 2.5 goals, although seven games remain a small sample.
Availability and selection
Noahkai Banks is out with a knee ligament rupture, Tim Breithaupt with a toe injury; Steve Mounie, Faik Sakar and Djuma Bah are also unavailable. Calvin Brackelmann is doubtful, as are Claude-Maurice with muscular problems and Sima Suso with a wound. These absences reduce the available selection options before a match following a midweek cup tie.
- Sonnenhofaway4:2
- Union Berlinhome1:1
- Elversbergaway3:4
- Bayern Munichhome2:2
- Hertha BSChome2:2
Freiburg: league position ahead of recent form
Away returns and the latest results
Freiburg have won two and lost three of their last five games, scoring eight and conceding 12. Their 3:2 cup victory over Wolfsburg ended a run of defeats against Leverkusen, Monaco and Bayern. Away in the league, they have one win, one draw and one loss, with four goals at either end: their road results are less convincing than their overall position.
Strengths and pressure points
- Four wins in seven league games underpin their top-three standing.
- Sixteen goals scored and nine conceded give them a better goal difference than Augsburg.
- Two league clean sheets contrast with goals conceded in all five recent matches.
- BTTS has landed in five league games, while six went Over 2.5.
Players missing or doubtful
Berkay Yilmaz is unavailable following dental surgery, and Bruno Ogbus is out with muscular problems. Jordi Makengo, Derry Scherhant and Philipp Treu are doubtful. No probable starting lineups, formations, confirmed suspensions or expert assessments are supplied for either side.
- VfL Wolfsburghome3:2
- Bayern Munichhome1:3
- AS Monacoaway0:3
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway1:2
- Jablonechome3:2
Head-to-head: Freiburg lead, Augsburg have responded
Freiburg have five wins to Augsburg’s two across nine official meetings in five years, alongside two draws. The latest three encounters tell a different story: a goalless draw, a 3:1 Augsburg away win and a 2:2 draw. Five of the eight listed meetings featured BTTS and at least three goals; the exceptions included two Augsburg blanks and the goalless match.
- 18.01.2026Augsburg2:2FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 23.08.2025Freiburg1:3AugsburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 02.03.2025Augsburg0:0FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 19.10.2024Freiburg3:1AugsburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 25.02.2024Augsburg2:1FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
Match context: a shorter turnaround for Freiburg
Augsburg played their cup tie on 27 October, Freiburg on 28 October, leaving the visitors one fewer calendar day before this fixture. Both teams dropped points in their previous league matches. Conditions are forecast at 9°C without rain, with wind at 2.8 m/s and gusts reaching 6.5 m/s.
Our pick: protection against the draw
Our bet is Handicap 2 (0) 1.69. Freiburg’s stronger league position and five-year head-to-head advantage favour the visitors, but Augsburg’s unbeaten home record makes draw protection preferable to an outright away win. Freiburg have conceded nine league goals to Augsburg’s 13: their better defensive return is the clearest statistical support for this selection.
Augsburg also have less room to adjust their squad. According to media reports, Banks, Mounie, Breithaupt, Sakar and Ba are unavailable, while Claude-Maurice is doubtful with muscular problems. Those absences reduce the hosts’ options, although Freiburg’s own injury concerns prevent treating this as a comfortable assignment. The visitors have conceded in all five of their latest matches, so the selection rests on their broader league edge rather than recent defensive security. Predicted score: 1:2.
Final verdict
Handicap 2 (0) 1.69 backs Freiburg’s advantage without requiring them to break Augsburg’s home resistance outright.
FAQ
When does Augsburg — Freiburg kick off?
The match starts on 31.10.2026 at 10:30 (New York), WWK Arena (Augsburg).
What is the prediction for Augsburg — Freiburg?
Our pick is Handicap 2 (0) at 1.69.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Augsburg win — 33%, draw — 24%, Freiburg win — 43%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Sonnenhofaway4:2
- Union Berlinhome1:1
- Elversbergaway3:4
- Bayern Munichhome2:2
- Hertha BSChome2:2
- VfL Wolfsburghome3:2
- Bayern Munichhome1:3
- AS Monacoaway0:3
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway1:2
- Jablonechome3:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | 17 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | 13 |
| 8 | Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | 10 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17:13 | 9 |
| 10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 9 |
Head-to-head
- 18.01.2026Augsburg2:2FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 23.08.2025Freiburg1:3AugsburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 02.03.2025Augsburg0:0FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 19.10.2024Freiburg3:1AugsburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 25.02.2024Augsburg2:1FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
About the match
- 31 October · 10:30 New York
- Venue: WWK Arena (Augsburg), Augsburg
- Weather: 9° · precip. 0% · wind 2.5 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 31.10 06:10
Market: a measured preference for the visitors
Freiburg are favourites, with an implied away-win probability of 43.7%, against 32.1% for Augsburg and 24.2% for the draw. That is a preference rather than an expectation of a one-sided match. BTTS is assessed at 66%, while Under 3.5 goals stands at 56.2%: goals for both sides need not mean a four-goal total. None of the listed markets has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.69
- Odds at prediction
- 1.65
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 58%
- Market estimate
- 56%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
