Sumqayit vs Shafa Baku Prediction in the Azerbaijan Premier League
Sumqayit
Shafa BakuMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.39 void
Match result
Sumqayit 1:1 Shafa Baku (0:1, 1:0)
The Azerbaijan Premier League match between Sumqayit and Shafa Baku ended in a 1:1 draw. The score was 0:1 after the first half and 1:0 in the second half. Based on this final result, our prediction of Handicap 1 (0) was settled as a draw, meaning the bet was void.
Our prediction: Handicap 1 (0) at 1.25 — the bet was void.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (1) at 1.39 — the bet was void.
Sumqayit host Shafa Baku at Kapital Bank Arena on November 2 in round 10 of the Azerbaijan Premier League. The hosts sit ninth, while their visitors are in 11th. This is a chance for Sumqayit to close the gap to eighth-placed Imisli, while Shafa need points to separate themselves from bottom club Araz-Naxcıvan.
Sumqayit: league progress behind the cup scoreline
Recent results and home balance
Sumqayit have three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five matches across all competitions. The latest was an 11:0 cup victory over Kur-Araz, which should be kept separate from their league scoring trend. Their preceding four league fixtures produced a 1:1 draw at Kapaz, home wins over Gabala and Araz-Naxcıvan, and a 3:2 defeat at Zira.
Attacking strengths and defensive exposure
At home in the league, Sumqayit have two wins, one draw and two defeats, scoring eight and conceding seven. Their season average of 1.5 goals scored per match contrasts with 1.63 conceded, and they have yet to record a league clean sheet in eight attempts. BTTS has landed in seven of those games and Over 2.5 in five, although such a short sample limits confidence in those frequencies.
Scorers and selection outlook
Nihat Ahmadzada and Ronaldo Vasquez have two league goals apiece in three appearances each; Mamady Bangre has one from three. Sumqayit have eight points from eight matches, with fewer fixtures played than the teams immediately around them.
- Kur-Arazaway11:0
- Ziraaway2:3
- Araz-Naxcıvanhome2:1
- Gabalahome4:1
- Kapazaway1:1
Shafa Baku: cup relief after four league defeats
A difficult run away from the cup
Shafa lost their four most recent league matches: 1:0 at Qarabag, 1:0 against Turan Tovuz, 3:2 at Shamakhi and 2:1 against Kapaz. They then beat Agstafa Ganclari 9:2 in the cup. That result ended the losing sequence across competitions, but conceding twice means it offered no clean-sheet reset before this trip.
Limited scoring and an away weakness
One win and eight defeats from nine league games have left Shafa on three points. Their five away fixtures account for four goals scored and ten conceded, with four defeats and one victory. Across the league season, they average 0.56 goals scored and 1.89 conceded; BTTS has occurred in three games, Over 2.5 in four, and only one match has brought a clean sheet.
Goal contributors and goalkeeper situation
Maudo Jarjue and Elnur Jafarov each have one league goal. According to media reports, reserve goalkeeper Nijat Mehbalyev could seek a winter departure after Tiago Silva's arrival. That concerns his longer-term role rather than a confirmed absence for this fixture, so it does not establish a change in the starting goalkeeper.
- Agstafa Ganclarihome9:2
- Kapazhome1:2
- Shamakhiaway2:3
- Turan Tovuzhome0:1
- Qarabagaway0:1
Guliyev points to a lift in confidence
Defender Nihad Guliyev said the cup victory improved Shafa's mood and expressed hope of ending their poor league run against Sumqayit. His comments describe a psychological boost, rather than evidence that the defensive problems have been resolved.
Line-ups
Sumqayit
Starting XI: 4. Easah Suliman, 5. Renan Cunha Macedo Santana, 10. Ronaldo Vasquez, 11. Mamady Bangre, 16. Marko Johansson, 17. Nihat Ahmadzada, 19. Roi Kahat, 21. Tiago Melo Almeida, 42. Cedric Badolo, 55. Lucas Gabriel de Oliveira, 80. Keffel
Substitutes: 3. Hojjat Haghverdi, 12. Aftandil Arixov, 20. Aykhan Suleymanly, 22. Khayal Farzullayev, 23. Rufat Ahmadov, 27. Imani Barker, 29. Emil Mustafaiev, 37. Nihad Orucali, 75. Nadir Orujov, 97. Vusal Pashayev
Coach: Filipe Candido
Shafa Baku
Starting XI: 4. Maudo Jarjue, 5. Arsen Agjabeyov, 6. Farid Yusifli, 9. Luis Felipe Da Silva Rodrigues, 11. Andrei Dragu, 17. Moussa Guel, 18. Bafode Dansoko, 21. Ismayil Zulfugarli, 42. Elnur Jafarov, 83. Гулиев Нихад, 97. Tiago da Silva
Substitutes: 3. Tarlan Guliyev, 8. Vlad Pop, 12. Alirza Mushtabazada, 22. Oumar Diaw, 23. Nahid Aliyev, 28. Murad Musaev, 29. Vusal Ganbarov, 34. Christopher Mamengi, 55. Rauf Huseynli, 77. Elmar Mammadov, 99. Mammad Huseynov
Coach: Zaur Hashimov
Our pick: protection against the draw
Our selection for Sumqayit against Shafa Baku is Handicap 1 (0) 1.25. The hosts won their previous two home league games, scoring six goals and conceding two. That attacking return supports backing them against visitors who have lost four consecutive league matches and conceded 10 goals across five away fixtures.
The draw protection matters because Sumqayit have not kept a clean sheet in eight league appearances. Their ability to score does not make a narrow lead secure, so taking the stake back if the match finishes level is preferable to relying solely on victory. Shafa's cup success lifted spirits, as defender Nihad Guliyev acknowledged, but does not erase their league difficulties. No confirmed injury, suspension or lineup updates are available. The projected score is 2:1 to Sumqayit.
Final betting view
Handicap 1 (0) 1.25 backs Sumqayit's stronger recent home performances while allowing for their defensive vulnerability: a home win pays, a draw returns the stake, and an away win loses.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Kur-Arazaway11:0
- Ziraaway2:3
- Araz-Naxcıvanhome2:1
- Gabalahome4:1
- Kapazaway1:1
- Agstafa Ganclarihome9:2
- Kapazhome1:2
- Shamakhiaway2:3
- Turan Tovuzhome0:1
- Qarabagaway0:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | İmisli | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9:15 | 10 |
| 9 | Sumqayit | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:13 | 8 |
| 10 | Gabala | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5:16 | 8 |
| 11 | Shafa Baku | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5:17 | 3 |
| 12 | Araz-Naxcıvan | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9:21 | 3 |
About the match
- 2 November · 10:00 New York
- Venue: Kapital Bank Arena (Sumqayıt), Sumgay·yt
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market preference is clearer than the goal outlook
Sumqayit are the favourites, but the market stops short of treating a home win as highly secure. The goals markets are much closer to evenly balanced: neither Over/Under nor BTTS carries a strong directional signal. All listed lines have remained broadly unchanged over the past 24 hours, with no clear shift towards either team.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 1 (0)
- Odds
- 1.33
- Odds at prediction
- 1.25
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 72%
- Market estimate
- 69%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.33
- Potential win
- 33 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.36
- Status
- void
- Profit
- +0 $