Sabah Baku vs Qarabag: Azerbaijan Premier League Match Prediction
Sabah Baku
QarabagMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.28 lost
Match result
Sabah Baku 0:0 Qarabag (0:0, 0:0)
The Azerbaijan Premier League match between Sabah Baku and Qarabag ended in a 0:0 score, with both periods finishing 0:0. Our prediction for this match was Individual Total 1 Over (1). Based on the final outcome, the bet lost.
Our prediction: Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.36 — the bet lost.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (1) at 1.28 — the bet lost.
Sabah Baku host Qarabag at Dalga Arena in Baku on 25 October in round 9 of the Azerbaijan Premier League. The leaders sit two points above their third-placed visitors; both are unbeaten after seven league games.
Sabah: league control after a European setback
Recent results and home strength
Sabah’s last five matches brought three wins, one draw and one defeat. They beat İmisli 3:1, drew 0:0 at Neftchi, defeated Slavia Prague 2:0 and Gabala 4:0, then lost 1:2 to Borussia Dortmund. At home in the league, they have won all three games by a combined 10:1.
Scoring output and defensive protection
Six wins and a draw have produced 19 points. Sabah average 2.57 goals scored and 0.14 conceded in the league, with six clean sheets. BTTS has occurred once and Over 2.5 goals four times, showing that Sabah can carry the scoring without conceding. Seven games offer a limited measure of their defence against stronger attacks.
Personnel and the coach’s assessment
Aleksei Isaev has two league goals in two appearances; Abdulax Xaibulayev and Joy-Lance Mickels each have one in two. After Dortmund, Valdas Dambrauskas criticised poor starts to both halves and early concessions but praised his players’ fight. He described Orphe Mbina as an impact option who created chances.
- Borussia Dortmundhome1:2
- Gabalaaway4:0
- Slavia Praguehome2:0
- Neftchi Bakuaway0:0
- İmislihome3:1
Qarabag: reliable scoring, contrasting defensive returns
Unbeaten sequence and away efficiency
Qarabag’s latest five fixtures yielded three wins and two draws. They beat Araz-Naxcıvan, drew against Zira, beat Shafa Baku and İmisli, and most recently drew against Neftchi Baku. Away in the league, they have two wins and a draw, scoring four and conceding once.
Attacking consistency versus goals conceded
Five wins and two draws leave Qarabag on 17 points. They have scored in all five recent matches and average two goals per league game, with seven conceded this season. BTTS has landed in four of seven league fixtures, Over 2.5 in three, and clean sheets in three. Their away defence has been tighter than their overall record.
Scorers and selection limits
Kashchuk has two league goals in two appearances, while Muaddib and Malinovski K. each have one from two.
- Neftchi Bakuhome3:3
- İmisliaway2:0
- Shafa Bakuhome1:0
- Ziraaway1:1
- Araz-Naxcıvanhome3:2
Recent meetings favour Sabah without suppressing goals
Across 15 official meetings in five years, Sabah have six wins to Qarabag’s three, alongside six draws. The latest meeting ended 2:1 to Sabah in the cup, contrasting with the hosts’ low-concession league record.
- 22.04.2026Sabah Baku2:1QarabagAzerbaijan Cup
- 18.04.2026Qarabag0:1Sabah BakuAzerbaijan. Premier League
- 03.04.2026Qarabag2:2Sabah BakuAzerbaijan Cup
- 01.03.2026Qarabag3:3Sabah BakuAzerbaijan. Premier League
- 18.12.2025Sabah Baku2:1QarabagAzerbaijan. Premier League
Recovery time separates the preparations
Sabah have five days between their European fixture and this match; Qarabag have eight since their last outing. Dambrauskas’s comments concern Champions League opponents rather than a specific plan for Qarabag. No match-specific expert opinions or Qarabag team updates are available.
Line-ups
Sabah Baku
Starting XI: 3. Steve Solvet, 4. Aden McCarthy, 7. Umarali Rahmonaliyev, 10. Aleksei Isaev, 11. Kaheem Parris, 13. Ivan Lepinjica, 20. Joy-Lance Mickels, 21. Veljko Simic, 27. Tymoteusz Puchacz, 80. Akim Zedadka, 92. Stas Pokatilov
Substitutes: 5. Rahman Dashdamirov, 6. Abdulax Xaibulayev, 8. Christian Nwachukwu, 9. Khayal Aliyev, 17. Tellur Mutallimov, 18. Carlos Eduardo Borges Parente, 33. Erivaldo Almeida Santos Junior, 34. Xander Severina, 37. Eduardo Santos Queiroz, 88. Rodrigo Fernandes, 94. Ravan Mirzammadov, 99. Orphe M'Bina
Coach: Valdas Dambrauskas
Qarabag
Starting XI: 1. Shakhrudin Magomedaliyev, 2. Matheus de Barros da Silva, 4. Bence Varkonyi, 5. Bruno Alberto Langa, 8. Marko Jankovic, 9. Zakaria Sawo, 20. Kady Iuri Borges Malinowski, 21. Oleksiy Kashchuk, 29. Renaldo Cephas, 33. Diego Rosa, 55. Badavi Guseynov
Substitutes: 7. Jaly Mouaddib, 11. Reda Khadra, 12. Teymur Hasanov, 13. Bahlul Mustafazada, 19. Taofeek Ismaheel, 22. Musa Gurbanli, 25. Cebrails Makreckis, 32. Hikmat Jabrayilzade, 35. Pedro Bikalyo, 39. Jeremie Sylvangui Clovis Gnali, 88. Samuel Lobato
Coach: Gurban Gurbanov
Our pick: Sabah to score twice
Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.36. Sabah’s 18 goals in seven league games make their scoring output the strongest argument here: this selection targets their attack rather than a win against unbeaten Qarabag. At home, Sabah have scored 10 times across three league fixtures, comfortably above the two-goal threshold needed for a winning bet.
Sabah have scored in all eight latest meetings with Qarabag. That distinction matters: the sequence supports avoiding a blank, but does not make two goals automatic. Qarabag conceded three against Neftchi last time out, although their away league record is tighter, with just one conceded in three games. That is the main caution against expecting another high home total. Predicted score: 2:1.
Betting conclusion
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.36 offers a refund if Sabah score exactly once and wins if they score twice or more. Their home output and recent scoring record in this fixture support that target, with Qarabag’s away defence the principal risk.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Borussia Dortmundhome1:2
- Gabalaaway4:0
- Slavia Praguehome2:0
- Neftchi Bakuaway0:0
- İmislihome3:1
- Neftchi Bakuhome3:3
- İmisliaway2:0
- Shafa Bakuhome1:0
- Ziraaway1:1
- Araz-Naxcıvanhome3:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabah Baku | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18:1 | 20 |
| 2 | Neftchi Baku | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 22:9 | 18 |
| 3 | Qarabag | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14:7 | 18 |
| 4 | Turan Tovuz | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8:6 | 15 |
Head-to-head
- 22.04.2026Sabah Baku2:1QarabagAzerbaijan Cup
- 18.04.2026Qarabag0:1Sabah BakuAzerbaijan. Premier League
- 03.04.2026Qarabag2:2Sabah BakuAzerbaijan Cup
- 01.03.2026Qarabag3:3Sabah BakuAzerbaijan. Premier League
- 18.12.2025Sabah Baku2:1QarabagAzerbaijan. Premier League
About the match
- 25 October · 10:00 New York
- Venue: Dalga (Baku)
Odds
odds before kick-off
A narrow home preference in a balanced market
The 1X2 market puts Sabah at 37.6%, Qarabag at 35.3% and the draw at 27.2%, leaving little separation between the teams. BTTS is assessed at 60.8% and Over 2.5 goals at 56.3%. None of the listed markets has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Odds
- 1.36
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 67%
- Market estimate
- 67%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.36
- Potential win
- 36 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.36
- Status
- lost
- Profit
- −100 $
