Araz-Naxcıvan vs Gabala Prediction for Azerbaijan Premier League
Araz-Naxcıvan
GabalaMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.49 pending
Araz-Naxcıvan host Gabala at Shamakhi City Stadium in the ninth round of the Azerbaijan Premier League. Araz-Naxcıvan are tenth and Gabala twelfth, with Shafa Baku between them in eleventh. Araz-Naxcıvan have two points and Gabala four, while the gap to the leading position has already reached 17 and 15 points respectively. The match therefore carries direct weight in the fight to move away from the foot of the table.
Araz-Naxcıvan: defensive instability and a long wait for a win
Recent form and home profile
Araz-Naxcıvan have lost their last three matches and have no victory in eight league games. Their last five produced one draw and four defeats. They found the net in four of those five games, but also conceded in every one: the sequence included a 2:2 home draw with Turan Tovuz, a 0:2 defeat by Kapaz and a 1:2 loss at Sumqayit.
At home in the league, the record is two draws and two defeats, with only 2 goals scored and 5 conceded. Across the full tournament sample, the team averages 0.75 goals per match and allows 2.13. Both teams scored in four of eight games, while a clean sheet arrived only once.
Strengths, weaknesses and personnel
- Araz-Naxcıvan scored in four of their last five matches despite losing four of them.
- The attack is limited at home: 2 goals across four league fixtures.
- The defence conceded in all five recent matches and 17 times in the tournament.
- Fernandez Alb. leads the team with one goal in two appearances.
Central defender Issouf Paro will miss the match because of an injury suffered against Sumqayit, according to media reports. The team’s motivation is clear: winger Charles Boli said the club cannot remain in its current position, with the new coach working to change the situation and targeting a win over Gabala, according to media reports.
- Sumqayitaway1:2
- Kapazhome0:2
- Shamakhiaway1:2
- Turan Tovuzhome2:2
- Qarabagaway2:3
Gabala: an even weaker attack but a sharper recent collapse
Results, away numbers and table pressure
Gabala have lost four consecutive matches. Their last five yielded one win and four defeats. After beating İmisli, they lost to Kapaz, Neftchi Baku, Sumqayit and Sabah Baku. The latest defeat was especially severe: a 0:4 home loss to Sabah Baku.
Gabala are winless away in the league, losing all three matches and scoring once while conceding six. Their tournament totals are the lowest attacking figures in this matchup: 3 goals in eight games, or 0.38 per match, against 15 conceded. Both teams scored in only two of eight games, and Gabala kept one clean sheet. They sit twelfth with four points, while Araz-Naxcıvan are tenth with two.
What Gabala can and cannot offer
- The only recent victory came at home against İmisli.
- Gabala scored in just two of their last five matches.
- They conceded in all five recent fixtures, including four goals in the latest game.
- Shakhniyarov is the leading scorer with one goal in two appearances.
The away record makes their attacking output the central concern, especially against an opponent that has also struggled to protect its penalty area.
- Sabah Bakuhome0:4
- Sumqayitaway1:4
- Neftchi Bakuhome0:3
- Kapazaway0:1
- İmislihome2:1
Head-to-head record gives neither side a clear edge
The clubs have met ten times in official matches over the last five years. Araz-Naxcıvan won three, Gabala won four and three ended level. The most recent meeting finished 1:1 at Gabala, while the previous encounter between them ended in a 2:1 Araz-Naxcıvan home win.
The head-to-head pattern is close rather than one-sided: four of the last eight listed games were draws or one-goal victories, and only one produced a margin of three goals. The historical goal totals therefore point to a generally narrow contest, despite both teams’ current defensive problems.
- 25.04.2026Gabala1:1Araz-NaxcıvanAzerbaijan. Premier League
- 30.11.2025Gabala2:1Araz-NaxcıvanAzerbaijan. Premier League
- 30.08.2025Araz-Naxcıvan2:1GabalaAzerbaijan. Premier League
- 19.05.2024Gabala2:0Araz-NaxcıvanAzerbaijan. Premier League
- 16.03.2024Araz-Naxcıvan1:1GabalaAzerbaijan. Premier League
Team news and the mood around the fixture
The only confirmed absence is Araz-Naxcıvan centre-back Issouf Paro, who is out with the injury sustained in the previous league round. This removes an option from the centre of a defence that has already conceded in five straight matches.
Charles Boli’s comments set the tone for the hosts: the club recognises its position and wants the coaching change to produce an immediate response. Gabala arrive after four straight defeats, so the psychological pressure is at least as visible on the visitors as on the hosts.
Our scoring pick
Araz-Naxcıvan face Gabala at Shamakhi City Stadium seeking their first league win of the season, but our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (0.5) 1.28. The hosts have scored in four of their last five matches. Gabala have conceded 15 goals in eight rounds and have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last five games. That combination supports a home goal more strongly than a home victory.
The main caution is Araz-Naxcıvan’s return of just two goals in four home fixtures. Against that, Gabala have conceded six across three away matches, while the hosts have scored in three of the last four meetings between these clubs. Charles Boli has spoken of working under the new coach to change the team’s position, but the scoring record carries more weight than that pledge. A plausible score is 1-1.
Final verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (0.5) 1.28 is the selection: it requires one home goal, without relying on Araz-Naxcıvan ending their winless run. Their modest home output keeps confidence measured rather than high.
FAQ
When does Araz-Naxcıvan — Gabala kick off?
The match starts on 23.10.2026 at 07:00 (New York), Shamakhi City Stadium (Shamakhi).
What is the prediction for Araz-Naxcıvan — Gabala?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (0.5) at 1.28.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Araz-Naxcıvan win — 36%, draw — 29%, Gabala win — 35%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Sumqayitaway1:2
- Kapazhome0:2
- Shamakhiaway1:2
- Turan Tovuzhome2:2
- Qarabagaway2:3
- Sabah Bakuhome0:4
- Sumqayitaway1:4
- Neftchi Bakuhome0:3
- Kapazaway0:1
- İmislihome2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | İmisli | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7:13 | 7 |
| 10 | Gabala | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3:15 | 4 |
| 11 | Shafa Baku | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4:15 | 3 |
| 12 | Araz-Naxcıvan | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6:17 | 2 |
Head-to-head
- 25.04.2026Gabala1:1Araz-NaxcıvanAzerbaijan. Premier League
- 30.11.2025Gabala2:1Araz-NaxcıvanAzerbaijan. Premier League
- 30.08.2025Araz-Naxcıvan2:1GabalaAzerbaijan. Premier League
- 19.05.2024Gabala2:0Araz-NaxcıvanAzerbaijan. Premier League
- 16.03.2024Araz-Naxcıvan1:1GabalaAzerbaijan. Premier League
About the match
- 23 October · 07:00 New York
- Venue: Shamakhi City Stadium (Shamakhi), Shemakhy
Odds
Odds updated 23.10 00:30
Market view and goal-line expectations
The 1X2 market is unusually balanced. Araz-Naxcıvan are given a 36.4% win probability, Gabala 34.7%, and the draw 28.9%. The home-win line is drifting, while both the draw and away-win lines are shortening, showing that the market has reduced its initial preference for the hosts and is moving toward a tighter three-way assessment.
The goal market leans toward Under 2.5 at 54.6%, with Over 2.5 at 45.4%. The Under line is shortening. The BTTS market is almost even: “Yes” stands at 51.5%, but its line is drifting, while “No” is at 48.5% and shortening. That combination reflects two competing signals: both defences concede regularly, yet Gabala’s attack has produced only three league goals and Araz-Naxcıvan’s home output is also very low.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (0.5)
- Current odds
- 1.28
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 71%
- Market estimate
- 71%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.28
- Potential win
- 28 $
- Status
- pending