Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory: A League Match Prediction
Brisbane Roar
Perth GloryMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.39 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5) 1.3 pending
Brisbane Roar begin their A-League campaign at Suncorp Stadium against a Perth Glory side seeking their first points after an opening defeat. This round-two fixture comes with both clubs three points behind Auckland, although Brisbane have yet to play following the postponement of their opener.
Brisbane: results improve, defensive gaps remain
Recent form and venue split
Brisbane followed three defeats with wins over Brisbane Olympic and Broadmeadow Magic. Four fixtures were friendlies. At home, a cup defeat to Sydney and the latest friendly victory produced five goals for and five against; the three away games brought four scored and 11 conceded. They sit ninth without having played a league match.
Attacking recovery versus defensive exposure
- No clean sheets in five matches leave defensive organisation under scrutiny.
- All five games exceeded 2.5 goals; BTTS landed in three.
Rebuilt squad and absences
Michael Valkanis has completed a 15-week preseason with around 15 new arrivals, including Tyrese Francois from Wigan Athletic. Dimitri Valkanis is out with a hamstring injury; goalkeeper George Plusnin and midfielder Max Court are away on youth international duty, rather than suspended. A likely XI and formation have not been confirmed. The coach wants a winning start, but preseason results offer limited evidence of how this rebuilt group will handle league opposition.
- Broadmeadow Magichome3:1
- Brisbane Olympicaway4:3
- Persija Jakartaaway0:4
- Dewa Unitedaway0:4
- Sydneyhome2:4
Perth: consistent scoring, fragile protection
League setback and away record
Perth are tenth after losing at Macarthur Sydney, their second consecutive defeat. Across five matches they have two wins and three losses, scoring seven and conceding eight. Both away fixtures ended in defeats, at Queensland Lions and Macarthur, with one goal scored and two conceded on each occasion. That away sample is small, but neither performance delivered a clean sheet.
Scoring trends and defensive pressure
- Perth scored in all five matches, avoiding Brisbane's attacking blanks.
- Their only clean sheet came in a friendly against Adelaide United.
Midfield and defensive availability
Adam Griffiths has ruled out Calem Nieuwenhof with a hamstring injury; Henry Hore is doubtful with the same problem. Defenders Matt Dench and Charbel Shamoon have foot injuries, while Brian Kaltak has a knee injury. Earlier reports listed goalkeeper Daniil Solski with a back injury and questioned Tom Lawrence's availability for the opener after a knee problem; neither report establishes their current status. No likely XI or formation is confirmed. Perth added 10 players and have 13 aged under 23, with only 10 having at least 50 professional appearances.
- Macarthur Sydneyaway1:2
- Adelaide Unitedhome1:3
- Adelaide Unitedhome2:0
- Queensland Lionsaway1:2
- Brisbane Roarhome2:1
A level rivalry with frequent goals
The 13 official meetings over five years are split evenly: six wins apiece and one draw. Brisbane have won only one of the four listed home meetings, so venue alone has not settled this fixture.
- 25.04.2026Perth Glory2:1Brisbane RoarAustralia. A League
- 28.02.2026Brisbane Roar1:1Perth GloryAustralia. A League
- 16.01.2026Perth Glory1:2Brisbane RoarAustralia. A League
- 15.03.2025Perth Glory1:3Brisbane RoarAustralia. A League
- 21.12.2024Brisbane Roar0:1Perth GloryAustralia. A League
Late goals shape the visitors' response
Perth's camp remained positive after conceding twice late in their league opener. Protecting a lead is therefore an immediate concern, distinct from their ability to score. No independent expert assessment is supplied.
Our Pick: Brisbane to Score Twice
Brisbane Roar open their league season at Suncorp Stadium after a 15-week pre-season. Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.31: it targets the hosts' scoring rather than requiring them to win. Brisbane scored seven goals across their final two warm-up matches, although friendly opposition limits how much weight those results carry.
Perth conceded in four of their last five matches, and their defensive absences strengthen the case. Matt Dench, Charbel Shamoon and Brian Kaltak are unavailable, reducing the options for rebuilding the back line. Midfielder Calem Nieuwenhof is also out, while Henry Hore is doubtful. Confirmed starting lineups are unavailable. Brisbane have scored at least twice in five of the eight listed meetings; a 2-1 home win is the projected score.
Betting Verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.31 is the selection because Perth's depleted defence offers Brisbane a route to two goals without needing a clean sheet. Exactly one home goal returns the stake; a blank is the losing outcome.
FAQ
When does Brisbane Roar — Perth Glory kick off?
The match starts on 23.10.2026 at 05:00 (New York), Suncorp Stadium (Brisbane).
What is the prediction for Brisbane Roar — Perth Glory?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.31.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Brisbane Roar win — 41%, draw — 27%, Perth Glory win — 31%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Broadmeadow Magichome3:1
- Brisbane Olympicaway4:3
- Persija Jakartaaway0:4
- Dewa Unitedaway0:4
- Sydneyhome2:4
- Macarthur Sydneyaway1:2
- Adelaide Unitedhome1:3
- Adelaide Unitedhome2:0
- Queensland Lionsaway1:2
- Brisbane Roarhome2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Adelaide United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 | Brisbane Roar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 11 | Melbourne Victory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 25.04.2026Perth Glory2:1Brisbane RoarAustralia. A League
- 28.02.2026Brisbane Roar1:1Perth GloryAustralia. A League
- 16.01.2026Perth Glory1:2Brisbane RoarAustralia. A League
- 15.03.2025Perth Glory1:3Brisbane RoarAustralia. A League
- 21.12.2024Brisbane Roar0:1Perth GloryAustralia. A League
About the match
- 23 October · 05:00 New York
- Venue: Suncorp Stadium (Brisbane)
- Weather: 20° · precip. 71% · wind 3.5 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 23.10 04:20
Home favouritism without a strong consensus
The 1X2 market makes Brisbane favourites at 42.4%, ahead of Perth at 30.3% and the draw at 27.2%. That is a modest home advantage, not a majority expectation of victory. The Over/Under 2.5 goals market is almost balanced, with Over at 51.3%; BTTS has firmer support at 56.1%. None of these lines has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours, so there is no late directional shift to interpret.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.31
- Odds at prediction
- 1.4
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 66%
- Market estimate
- 70%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.4
- Potential win
- 40 $
- Status
- pending