Welcome to the ultimate guide to arbitrage betting, where I explore a strategy that promises risk-free profits by exploiting discrepancies in odds across different bookmakers and betting exchanges.
In this comprehensive guide, I provide an honest account of arbitrage betting, detailing both its advantages and disadvantages. I’ll cover the fundamentals of how arbitrage betting works, methods for finding and placing arbs, and the challenges that come with this strategy. By the end of this guide, you’ll have a balanced view of whether arbitrage betting is a viable option in today’s betting environment.
Article Contents
What is Arbitrage Betting?
Arbitrage betting, commonly known as “arbing,” is a strategy that guarantees a profit by exploiting differing odds from multiple bookmakers for the same event. It is also referred to as “sure bets,” “sure wins,” or “safe bets”.
At its core, sports arbitrage mirrors the broader principle of arbitrage, which involves simultaneously buying and selling a commodity in various markets to profit from price differences. In sports betting, the “commodity” is the outcome of an event.
To complete an arbitrage bet, you place stakes on all possible outcomes of an event across different bookmakers or betting exchanges. By betting on each outcome at favourable odds, you ensure a profit regardless of the event’s result. The key to arbitrage betting is that it does not depend on predicting the event’s outcome but rather on capitalising on the discrepancies in odds.
Arbing requires accurate stake calculations and prompt action in order to place bets before the odds change and the opportunity closes.
How to Find Arbitrage Bets
Trying to compare odds across multiple bookmakers to find arbs in real-time is not only time-consuming but also impractical. Even with odds comparison sites, the sheer volume of data and the speed at which odds change make manual searches inefficient. Using specialised arbitrage finders is a more effective approach to identify profitable arbitrage opportunities.
Companies like RebelBetting, and BetBurger are designed to simplify the process by scanning various bookmakers for discrepancies in odds. These platforms continuously refresh their odds feeds and highlight where significant differences occur, pointing out potential arbitrage opportunities. This not only speeds up the identification process but also ensures that you can act quickly before odds adjust.
However, while these services can help streamline your arb search, the volume of data and rapid changes in odds means that they will not capture every opportunity.
How to Place Arbitrage Bets
Placing arbitrage bets involves careful planning and execution to ensure you lock in guaranteed profits from price differences across different bookmakers.
Before starting, ensure you have active accounts with all involved bookmakers and betting exchanges. Verify and fund your accounts, and become familiar with each platform’s interface to facilitate smooth betting.
1. Identify the Opportunity
Identify a genuine arbitrage opportunity by comparing odds from various bookmakers or betting exchanges. Use arbing tools or software to find which combined bets mathematically guarantee a profit.
2. Calculate Your Stakes
To ensure a guaranteed profit from an arbitrage bet, you need to distribute your total stake between the bookmaker and the betting exchanges in a way that balances the potential outcomes. The calculations for this differ according the number of selections used, and whether the arb involves bookmakers or betting exchanges.
If you are proficient in excel, you may decide to create your own arb calculator. However, I strongly recommend using an online arbitrage bet calculator.
It is important to confirm that the % profit is enough to cover any potential commission or fees attached to placing the bets.
3. Place Bets Simultaneously
Timing is crucial. If an opportunity is still active, place all your bets as close to simultaneously as possible to lock in the odds before they change.
Utilise automated betting tools, such as Betfair trading programs, to help place bets across multiple platforms quickly and efficiently.
Always ensure a stable internet connection to avoid delays.
Important: Double-check that all legs of the arb have been placed successfully. Failure to do so will not hedge your risk. Most platforms provide a confirmation screen—use this to verify your bets.
Bookmaker to Bookmaker Arbs Example
Placing arbitrage bets effectively requires careful calculation to ensure an equal profit regardless of the outcome. Here’s a simplified example involving odds from two bookmakers. This type of arbitrage bet is known as a “Dutch”.
Example: Tennis Match Odds
Suppose you have the following odds for a tennis match:
- Bookmaker A (Outcome A): 2.05
- Bookmaker B (Outcome B): 2.25
These odds are favourable. So with a total stake of ￡100, you need to distribute your stake between the two outcomes to guarantee an equal profit.
Determine Stakes
The formula:
Stake on Outcome A = Total Stake × ((Odds at Bookmaker B - 1) / (Odds at Bookmaker A - 1 + Odds at Bookmaker B - 1))
Calculation for Stake on Outcome A:
100 × ((2.25 - 1) / (2.05 - 1 + 2.25 - 1)) = ￡52.32
Therefore, the Stake on Outcome B = ￡100 -￡52.32 = ￡47.68
Calculate Potential Returns
Now you have alter your stakes, the returns are as follows:
If Outcome A Wins:
- Return = (Stake on Outcome A) × (Odds at Bookmaker A) = ￡52.33 × 2.05 = ￡107.28
- Profit = (Return?Total Stake) = (￡107.23?￡100) = ￡7.28
If Outcome B Wins:
- Return = (Stake on Outcome B) × (Odds at Bookmaker B) = ￡47.68 × 2.25 = ￡107.28
- Profit = Return?Total Stake = 107.28?100 = ￡7.28
By distributing your total stake of ￡100 between the two outcomes, you ensure that your profit is equal regardless of which outcome wins. This sample principle applies to events with more than two outcomes e.g. football match odds.
Bookmaker to Betting Exchange Arbs Example
Here’s a simplified example of an arb involving odds from a bookmaker and a betting exchanges. For the sake of simplicity, the commission charged at the betting exchange has been omitted from the calculations.
This type of arbitrage bet only ever involves two bets, with the betting exchange used to hedge the bookmaker stake. The principle is simple: back high, lay low. This makes it simpler to interpret and execute than many Dutch bets.
Example: Football Match Odds
Suppose you have the following odds for? Team A in a football match:
- Bookmaker odds for Team A: 10.0
- Betting Exchange Lay odds for Team A: 9.0
Note that whatever stake you decide to place on Team A at at the bookmaker, a corresponding lay stake must be placed on the same selection to cover all other outcomes in the event in one hit. With a ￡10 bookmaker bet, without factoring in any commission, the optimal lay stake for a completely balanced arbitrage bet is ￡11.11. Please refer to the next section in this article for a worked calculation of how this value was reached.
Calculate Potential Returns
Once you have calculated your stakes, the potential returns are as follows:
If Bookmaker Wins:
Return =
-
- Bookmaker = (￡10 x 10.0) = ￡100
- Exchange = -(￡11.11 x 9.0) + ￡11.11 = -￡88.88
- Total = ￡100 – ￡88.88 = ￡11.12
Profit =
-
- Bookmaker = (￡10 x 10.0) – ￡10 = ￡90
- Exchange = -(￡11.11 x 9.0) + ￡11.11 = -￡88.88
- Total = ￡100 – ￡88.88 = ￡1.12
If Exchange Wins:
Return=
-
- Bookmaker = -￡10
- Exchange = ￡11.11?+ ￡88.88
- Total = -￡10 + 11.11 = ￡1.11 + ￡88.88 = ￡90
Profit =
-
- Bookmaker = -￡10
- Exchange = ￡11.11
- Total = -￡10 + 11.11 = ￡1.11
By adjusting the lay stake at the betting exchange, you ensure that your profit is nearly equal regardless of which betting outcome wins. The slight difference in profit, due to rounding, remains minimal, guaranteeing a consistent return on your investment.
Calculating Lay Stakes for Arbitrage
To guarantee a profit from an arbitrage bet against a betting exchange, you need to distribute your stakes so that your profit remains consistent regardless of the outcome.
Here’s how to calculate the lay stake for the ‘Bookmaker to Betting Exchange’ example from the previous section:
1. Define the Variables
The following variables are required for calculating the optimal lay stake for arbitrage bets.
- BookieWin = 90 (the potential profit if the bookmaker bet wins)
- BookieLose = -10 (the potential loss if the bookmaker bet loses)
- ExchangeOdds = 9.0 (the lay odds)
2. Set Up the Equation
To ensure equal profit, use the following formula:
BookieWin - (ExchangeOdds - 1) * LayStake = BookieLose + LayStake
Substitute the values into the formula:
90 – (9.0 – 1) * LayStake = -10 + LayStake
3. Solve for ‘LayStake’:
Simplify the equation:
90 - 8.0 * LayStake = -10 + LayStake
Rearrange the equation to solve for LayStake:
￡90 - 8(LayStake) = -￡10 + LayStake ?￡100 = 9(LayStake) ?LayStake = 100/9 = ￡11.11
To ensure a consistent profit regardless of the outcome in this example scenario, you must lay approximately 11.11 on the exchange. This calculation balances the profit between the bookmaker’s bet and the exchange’s lay bet.
The Pros of Arbitrage Betting
Arbitrage betting offers several compelling advantages, including risk-free profits, ease of entry, flexibility across markets, and the potential for automation.
1. Potential for Lucrative Returns
Arbitrage betting can be quite lucrative when executed well. By consistently identifying and exploiting discrepancies in odds, you can accumulate steady profits over time.
While individual returns from each arbitrage bet may be modest, the cumulative effect of regular arbing can lead to significant gains.
2. Risk-Free Approach
Unlike traditional betting, where outcomes are uncertain and risks are high, arbitrage betting removes the risk of loss. By betting on all possible outcomes, you secure a return no matter which side wins, making it a low-risk strategy.
As long as you place your bets with the correct proportions and the odds are favourable, you are guaranteed a return regardless of the event’s result.
3. No Advanced Knowledge Required
You do not need advanced betting or sporting knowledge to start arbitrage betting. Basic understanding of betting odds and the use of arbitrage calculators or software can be enough.
Many tools are available to identify arbitrage opportunities and calculate the required stake sizes, making the strategy accessible to beginners.
4. Market Opportunities
Arbitrage betting can be applied across various sports and markets. Whether you are interested in major sports or niche events, arbitrage opportunities can arise in numerous areas. This flexibility allows you to choose different markets to maximise the strategy.
5. Potential for Automation
The use of sophisticated tools and technology makes arbitrage betting more efficient. Specialised software (e.g. Betfair trading tools) and calculators quickly identify opportunities and calculate stakes for you, streamlining the process and allowing you to focus on finding and exploiting arbs effectively.
The Cons of Arbitrage Betting
Despite its advantages, arbitrage betting comes with several drawbacks that can affect its practicality and long-term success.
1. Rapidly Changing Odds
The long-term viability of arbitrage betting is hampered by rapidly changing odds. Bookmakers adjust their odds quickly to close arbing gaps, causing opportunities to be short-lived.
As technology has advanced, viable arbitrage situations have decreased, making it harder than ever to find profitable bets. Opportunities can vanish within seconds, necessitating swift action and often leading to missed chances or lower profits.
2. Account Limitations and Closures
Frequent engagement in arbitrage betting often leads to account limitations or closures by bookmakers. This can significantly hinder your ability to find and place arbitrage bets in the future, making it almost impossible to sustain the strategy at many betting sites.
3. Time-Consuming
The process of finding and placing arbitrage bets can be time-consuming and labour-intensive, particularly when done manually. Identifying potential arbitrage opportunities requires continuous monitoring of an arb finder, and placing bets quickly to lock in favourable odds. The time investment needed to manage and execute arbitrage bets can be substantial, potentially outweighing the returns for some bettors.
4. Potential for Human Error
Arbitrage betting relies heavily on precision and accuracy. Any errors in calculations, timing, or bet placement can result in unexpected losses instead of the guaranteed profits intended. The need for meticulous calculation of stakes and rapid placement of bets means that even minor mistakes can undermine the effectiveness of the strategy.
5. Complexity in Managing Multiple Accounts
Managing accounts with various bookmakers can become complex. Each account may have different withdrawal limits, deposit requirements, payout times, and other restrictions, which can complicate the overall betting strategy. Effective management of multiple accounts requires careful organisation and attention to detail, adding another layer of complexity to the arbing process.
How Much Can You Make from Arbitrage Betting?
The amount you can make from arbitrage betting depends on several factors — primarily the detection and limitations imposed by bookmakers. If a bookmaker detects that you’re engaging in arbing, they usually limit your account, known as “gubbing,” or close it entirely, which affects how long you can continue arbing and thus how much you can earn.
Typically, the profit margin per arbitrage bet ranges from 1% to 5% of the total stake. For example, with a ￡100 total stake, you might expect a profit between ￡1 and ￡5 per arb. The key to maximising earnings lies in the volume of bets you can place before encountering restrictions. Higher turnover generally leads to greater profits, while a smaller volume results in proportionally smaller returns. In essence, while individual profits per bet may be modest, consistent and high-volume arbing can accumulate substantial gains over time.
Do Arbs Bother the Bookmakers?
Arbitrage betting can indeed be a concern for bookmakers, although the extent of their concern can vary. Theoretically, a bookmaker’s overround—the built-in margin in the odds—ensures that they make a profit on every event, even if a small percentage of customers are engaging in arbitrage betting. This margin assumes that the bookmaker’s odds are well-balanced and that the betting market is functioning as expected.
However, the presence of an arbitrage opportunity typically indicates that there is a discrepancy in the odds offered by bookmakers or betting exchanges like Betfair or Matchbook. When an arb occurs, one or more bookmakers may offer odds that are higher than the market value, creating a profitable situation for arbers. Since offering such value to bettors can be counter to the bookmaker’s business model, they are motivated to close these opportunities quickly to minimise their financial exposure.
Moreover, bookmakers are wary of customers who display a sophisticated betting strategy like arbitrage. These bettors are often perceived as having a higher likelihood of engaging in other profit-driven activities, such as bonus abuse or value betting. Consequently, bookmakers may take pre-emptive measures, such as limiting or closing the accounts of frequent arbers, to avoid potential losses and maintain their profitability.
While some bookmakers actively monitor and restrict accounts to prevent arbing, others might adopt a more tolerant approach, especially if the impact of arbing on their overall profitability is minimal. The degree to which bookmakers are bothered by arbitrage betting depends on how significantly it affects their bottom line. The overround is designed to safeguard against such practices, but its effectiveness can be compromised by aggressive and successful arbers.
Also see my article: How Bookmakers Make Money?
How Are Arbers Detected?
Bookmakers use various methods to identify and monitor arbers, who often display distinct traits that raise suspicion. Here’s how bookmakers detect potential arbing activity:
1. Large Deposit and Stake Sizes
A sudden large deposit, such as ￡1,000, followed by placing maximum stakes on bets, is an obvious red flag. Such behaviour is not typical for casual bettors and suggests a strategic approach. High deposit and stake amounts signal a bettor who is well-informed, prompting bookmakers to scrutinise their activity more closely.
2. Unusual Stake Amounts
Arbers often place non-standard stake amounts, like ￡5.42, due to stake calculations or the restrictions imposed by bookmakers.
Regular bettors usually place round, flat stakes, so frequent bets with odd amounts can indicate the use of a betting strategy or automated software. Bookmakers use these unusual stake patterns as indicators of potential arbing.
3. Betting Patterns
Bookmakers pay attention to betting behaviour, such as placing bets at unconventional hours or on high odds. For example, placing bets early in the morning or frequently betting on high odds can be seen as signs of value betting or arbing.
4. IP Address
The IP address from which a bettor places their bets can reveal connections to known arbing syndicates. Additionally, if a bettor who has been restricted for arbing signs up for a new account using the same IP address, bookmakers may link this new account to past arbing activities.
While bookmakers may not always discriminate against households with multiple accounts, they do monitor IP addresses for suspicious activity.
5. Advanced Technology
Bookmakers use advanced fraud prevention tools, like those from Iovation, to detect and mitigate arbitrage betting. These tools analyse various indicators to identify potential arbing, making it difficult for arbers to disguise their activities.
Additionally, bookmakers have access to specialised software similar to that used by professional arbers, which helps them spot frequent betting on arbitrage opportunities, leading to account limitations or closures.
These detection methods make it difficult for arbers to sustain their activities over time. For more information check out my detailed post on the subject:?avoiding bookmaker account limits and closures. Additionally, you might find valuable tips and strategies from other active arbing forums and blogs.
Is Arbing Legal?
Arbitrage betting is legal, as long as the bettor complies with local gambling laws and regulations. The practice itself does not violate any laws, but it is often prohibited by bookmakers who include specific terms and conditions against it. Such restrictions are contractual rather than legal.
While bookmakers discourage arbitrage betting due to its potential to undermine their profitability, exchanges like Betfair often welcome arbers because their activity adds liquidity to the betting markets. The core principle of arbing—exploiting discrepancies in odds—contrasts with the bookmaker’s goal of setting odds that generate profit through their overround, but it does not constitute a legal offense.
The existence of various arbing software tools, such as Rebelbetting, further indicates that arbitrage betting is not considered illegal, although these tools are not endorsed by bookmakers. The continued interest and development of arb-finding technologies within the gambling community highlights the acceptance of arbing as a legitimate betting strategy, despite the resistance from some bookmakers.
Tips for Arbitrage Betting
While the basic concept—backing high and laying low—is straightforward, executing it effectively involves overcoming several challenges:
1. Manage Your Bankroll Effectively
To ensure smooth operations in arbitrage betting, it is crucial to manage your bankroll wisely. Make sure you have sufficient funds in both your bookmaker and exchange accounts to cover the back and lay bets. Regularly deposit money into these accounts to maintain liquidity and avoid delays when a profitable arbitrage opportunity arises. Keeping a dedicated bankroll for arbing will help you stay organised and focused.
2. Act Quickly and Efficiently
Arbitrage opportunities are fleeting, so it is essential to act swiftly. Use arbing software, such as RebelBetting, to receive real-time alerts about potential opportunities. Prepare in advance by logging into your bookmaker and exchange accounts and ensuring that your balances are adequate for placing bets. Monitor the odds closely and place your bets as quickly as possible to secure your profits before the odds change.
3. Stay Disciplined
Arbitrage betting requires a disciplined approach. Treat it as a business rather than a recreational activity. Strictly adhere to your arbing strategy and avoid getting emotionally involved with the outcomes of your bets. Focus solely on identifying and executing arbitrage opportunities, and resist the temptation to place unrelated bets or engage in activities that could divert your attention.
4. Be Aware of Account Limitations
Frequent arbing can lead to account restrictions or closures. To mitigate this risk, use multiple bookmaker accounts to spread your betting activity. Regularly monitor your accounts for any signs of restriction and be prepared to switch to alternative bookmakers if necessary. Understanding the specific terms and conditions of each bookmaker can help you avoid triggering account limitations.
5. Check the Terms and Conditions
Arbitrage betting can sometimes lead to complications with terms and conditions. It is important to thoroughly read and understand the rules of your bookmaker accounts to avoid any issues that could impact your ability to place bets or withdraw funds. Address any disputes or account problems promptly by contacting customer support, as maintaining a good relationship with support staff can help resolve issues more efficiently.
If the challenges of arbitrage betting seem daunting, you might want to explore other approaches to betting. For additional ideas, check out my strategy section.
Similarities Between Arbitrage and Matched Betting
Matched betting is essentially a form of arbitrage betting that capitalises on bookmaker bonuses. At their core, both strategies aim for guaranteed profits by covering all possible outcomes. While arbitrage betting exploits differences in odds across various bookmakers, matched betting leverages free bets and promotional offers.
Both approaches require risk management by ensuring a profit regardless of the event’s result. They also rely on specialised tools—matched betting uses bonus calculators, whereas arbitrage betting employs odds trackers. Effective management of multiple accounts is crucial in both methods to maximise opportunities.
Also see my article: Matched Betting Explained
Similarities Between Arbitrage and Value Betting
Arbitrage and value betting share a common objective: both aim to exploit odds with positive expected value (EV). Arbitrage betting achieves this by covering all possible outcomes of an event to ensure a profit regardless of the result, while value betting seeks odds higher than the true probability, accepting some risk for potential gains.
Interestingly, both strategies often end up selecting odds that beat the Start Price (SP) or closing line value — because both methods exploit inefficiencies in the prices offered by bookmakers.
From the bookmaker’s perspective, both arbers and value bettors challenge their ability to set accurate odds, thereby leading to account restrictions or closures.
Also see my article: Arbing vs Value Betting
Arbitrage Betting in the US and Canadian Markets
While arbitrage betting is feasible in the US and Canada, it comes with some challenges:
- Fewer Tools: Unlike in Europe, where numerous specialist services and tools are available to identify arbitrage opportunities, the US and Canadian markets have fewer resources. However, stand-out service is the arb finder from OddsJam.
- Tighter Regulations: The legal landscape for sports betting in the US and Canada is complex and varies by state or province. Bettors must ensure they operate within legal frameworks, which can limit the sportsbooks available for arbitrage opportunities.
- Bookmaker Restrictions: Like in Europe, sportsbooks limit or ban accounts suspected of engaging in arbitrage betting. This can make it difficult for bettors to maintain multiple accounts or place large bets necessary for arbing.
Is Arbing Worth the Effort in 2024?
Arbitrage betting is mathematically sound, but in practice, it’s not a viable long-term prospect. Bookmakers’ advanced technologies quickly detect and restrict arbers, leading to rapid account closures.
If you don’t care about keeping your bookmaker accounts active and are prepared for them to be closed down, there are short-term profits to be made — no doubt about it. However, for some of you, the obstacles and time investment will outweigh the potential benefits.
Alternatives to Arbing
- Sports Trading: Bet on exchanges like Betfair, adjusting positions as odds fluctuate. Offers flexibility and potential profit but requires market knowledge and quick reactions.
- Value Betting: Find and place bets where odds exceed the true probability of an outcome. Long-term gains are possible with accurate odds assessment and effective bankroll management.
- Bet Brokers: Use intermediaries to place bets across multiple bookmakers, bypassing account restrictions. Choose a reliable bet broker and consider any fees involved.
Originally posted on 20 June 2016 and last updated 23rd July 2024.
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