‘Industry Experts’ Blog

I’ve been contributing to the Trademate Sports ‘Industry Experts’ blog which regularly asks key questions on topics surrounding professional sports betting. Third party betting bloggers, such as myself, provide honest answers.

Here’s where you can find the answers I’ve given so far:

• How Can You Determine If Betting Results Are Luck Or Skill?
• Which Staking Size Strategy Do You Consider To Be The Best, and Why?
• How Difficult Is It To Beat The Betting Markets?
• What’s The Best Method For Making Money From Sports Betting?

It’s worth noting that I’m not paid to contribute to the Trademate blog, nor am I asked to give biased answers. I do genuinely support their product because, unlike 99% of other sports betting services, it makes money for its subscribers.

Writing for their blog is also great self-promotion, and helps me to think of new content/angles to include on Punter2Pro.

Podcast Appearance

I also featured on Trademate’s podcast, where I spoke about various aspects of sports betting including: tipsters, betting experiments, cold trading, the link between arbitrage and value betting, getting money out of the bookies, and the morality of sports betting.

From what I’ve heard, the recording was well received and went out to a growing number of listeners on various channels. However, I noticed one comment on YouTube that criticised my views on Betfair trading:

If he is reading this, you’re site is great but I think some of your articles are affected by your own bias from betfair trading.  It’s absolutely possible to make money on there via various methods and I’ve seen several of your posts that indicated this is virtually impossible long term. I understand it didn’t work out for you but you can find lots of people who make money or even a living from just betfair.

Perhaps I am slightly biased. But in my defence, I did point out during the podcast that “just because I haven’t succeeded [at Betfair trading] doesn’t mean someone else won’t”. Nonetheless, I should explain my stance for the benefit of other readers.

How Tough Is Betfair Trading?

When it comes to Betfair trading, there’s a huge potential upside — but a lot of competition and smart money on the markets. I believe that there are only a small number of consistent winners (over a large data set, and a lengthy period of time).

It’s not just me that believes this. In fact, the very author of the books ‘Betfair Trading Techniques’ and ‘Programming For Betfair’, James Butler, stated the following on his blog:

If my books or my website articles have the negative effect of turning people off sports trading then I regard that as much of a success as anyone who makes a profit. It is better to walk away having broken even and realising how hard the game is rather than losing money through third-parties who do not have their interest at heart.

James Butler doesn’t have the popularity of many other sports betting bloggers, but the quality of his books are testament to his knowledge of trading, and understanding of the mathematics needed to succeed at sports betting. As a Computer Science graduate, I’ve always taken his views on-board, as they align with both my own experiences and line of thinking.

I recommend reading his final post to get a picture of how he sees the industry: It’s Been Great to Meet You!

Not all Betfair-related content emphasises the difficulties in becoming a successful pro trader. So I try to put that message across on my blog.

Fresh Content

Aside from the January Tipster performance updates, I published an article on the Best Tipsters For US Sports.

More recently I’ve also written a couple of posts that flesh out some of the answers I gave to the Trademate blog:

• How Do I Know If My Betting Results Were Luck Or Skill?
• How Efficient Are Sports Betting Markets?

New Websites & Brands

As part of a bigger plan to expand my horizons beyond the sports betting industry, I’ve been spending a lot of my time developing other websites and brands.

You may have noticed links on Punter2Pro to “NicheCarve“. That’s my online business & marketing blog, aimed at offering guidance to entrepreneurs and startups.

I started NicheCarve after reaching the conclusion that a portion of Punter2Pro readers were neither interested in sports or sports betting. Indeed some visitors are simply interested in making money online by any means. So instead of isolating the majority of Punter2Pro readers by talking about online business, I decided to create an entirely new site with a different theme.

To be honest, NicheCarve hasn’t been the major hit I’d hoped for (yet!). But I believe in the site, and I’m satisfied with the quality of its articles. I’ve devoted a lot of my time during lockdown to publishing new content, expanding various themes (such as using the Amazon FBA program), and working towards improving the website’s SEO. It’s an ongoing project that I think will excel once I’ve given it a more personal touch.

Another blog I’ve written is “Top Goalkeeping“, a site devoted to helping aspiring keepers — the unsung heroes of football.

The content on Top Goalkeeping is so specifically aimed at football goalies that it’s barely relevant to the majority of Punter2Pro readers. Hence the need for an entirely new website.

I launched the site in early 2019, and I’m thrilled with the progress so far. It consistently receives daily traffic of around 150-200 users, and has quickly established itself as one of the most comprehensive goalkeeper blogs written in the English language.

While I’m barely ever between the sticks myself these days, I haven’t forgotten anything I was taught during my 10 year spell as an amateur keeper. The things I learnt as a teenager are still just as relevant to the sport today, and so my content resonates with current players. Confirmation of this came when two of my ‘psychological’ articles on Top Goalkeeping went viral on social media, attracting attention from keepers all over the world — including academy players and ex-professionals.

Here are the articles:

• Are Goalkeepers A Different Breed?
• Psychology & Mental Strength of Successful Goalkeepers

There was clearly a demand for goalkeeper content. I assume there are limited number of experienced keepers, with in-depth knowledge of the sport, as well as the marketing skills and writing ability to create a site of this standard. Or perhaps the idea was just overlooked entirely.

Other Projects:

• Rectrix: my goalkeeper glove brand. This has been majorly disrupted due to the lack of football being played.
• PalioETT: my table tennis bat brand. Sales shot up during lockdown, as people took up new indoor hobbies.
• FlyGA: my aviation brand. Sales have remained surprisingly steady through the pandemic period, so I’ve focused on developing new items in anticipation that flight schools will start re-opening business as usual.

Punter2Pro Earnings

While my overall income across all businesses improved during the lockdown, there’s no doubt that Punter2Pro heavily suffered as a result of there being no sport (and therefore no sports betting).

I now appreciate just how much this site is driven by people’s enjoyment of sport — not just an interest in making money online. At one stage my traffic halved from its regular performance level, which was roughly in line with how much earnings were hit.

However, I’ve seen a steady improvement in earnings since the restart of the Premier League, and I’m now making approximately 75% of the average monthly takings from the six months leading up to the lockdown.

But rather intriguingly, even prior to the lockdown, Punter2Pro traffic was down around 30% from the previous year. Yet the site was earning more. This indicates that conversions have improved, and visitors are of “higher quality” than before. I’m earning more from less readers, essentially.

While my content is clearly reaching the right people, I still want to know why the traffic has tailed off. I’m currently investigating my site’s SEO, as I suspect it may have been targeted in one form or another. It happens.

A Sports Betting Product by Punter2Pro

There’s a sports betting product I’m going to release at some point within the next six months (hopefully sooner). The concept been in the back of my mind for at least two years, and I know the blog would be a superb platform to promote it.

I’m currently designing the user interface, and seeking a developer to help me produce it. I’m excited for what it could bring to the market — provided it’s well executed.

For now I’ll remain secretive until I’m a little further along with the project. But stay posted for future updates!

I’d just like to say a big thank you to everyone that continues to read my blog. I hope that I’ve helped steer you in the right direction, or at least taught you something new.

The post What’s New With Punter2Pro? — 2020 Update appeared first on Punter2Pro.

I Considered Selling Punter2Pro…

I have a lot of projects on the go, and it’s tough to manage everything. So I determined that my time needs to be rationed out to whatever is most valuable, or progressive.

Believe it or not, I contemplated selling this site to focus on other ventures.

Ultimately I decided against the idea, of course. To be honest I never really expected I would go through with a sale. I’ve worked too hard on Punter2Pro to let it go easily.

But I wanted to get an idea of how much potential buyers would be willing to pay for a site like this, and to obtain a valuation of the work I’ve put into it to date.

People certainly wanted to buy it — which I take as a compliment. But after receiving a few (pretty substantial) offers, I didn’t bite; it only served to reassure me that the work I put into this site is valuable.

Publishing content, gaining followers, increasing traffic, reaching new audiences, expanding — it all adds value regardless of whether it all immediately translates into an income. Reinforcing that fact was enough for me to want to keep hold of Punter2Pro for the long-haul.

Website Profitability, Traffic & Sustainability

This site is earning well. The profits continue to grow between 15-30% each quarter with no signs of slowing.

I’m steadily receiving 650-800 unique visitors per day, and the average time a user spends on the site is between 2.5-3 minutes. It’s very steady, but not much of an increase over the past four months.

My articles are occasionally referenced on external blog posts, and Punter2Pro is featured on several “best betting blog” lists (without me prompting them). Nowadays I’m also asked, on a daily basis, if I’ll accept third party guest posts on my site in exchange for payment.

These are all promising signs that suggest there’s the potential to turn the site into a more recognised ‘hub’ for sports bettors. I’ll have to constantly adapt as times change. For example, if arbitrage betting?becomes largely obsolete, I’d look to replace that affiliate income stream with something else.

Overall I’m delighted with the performance and reception. Importantly, I believe there’s scope to improve in 2019.

Should I Allow Guest Content?

I’ve thought about it. But so far I’ve decided against it.

The main problem with guest content is that it’s highly biased. Which is fine — but guest posters in this industry are most likely to promote specific Bookmakers or Casinos. I don’t feel comfortable allowing content that might endorse unfamiliar brands that I don’t really know, or trust. The rewards aren’t worth the risks that come with it.

Also, I’m concerned that by adding content from various sources it’ll dilute the current message and create?conflicts in tone.

For now I’d prefer to continue in the direction I’m heading — on my own.?I know where I’d like to take Punter2Pro (read on), and I’m more motivated than ever to devote more time to it.

In fact, I’ve already made a start…

What’s New With Punter2Pro?

Behind the scenes I’ve made a lot of changes to this site and its content. Some adjustments aren’t immediately obvious, though.

Over the past two months I’ve…

Written New articles:

• Common Betting Strategy Mistakes
• Pros and Cons of Bet Brokers
• Best Bet Brokerages
• Asian Handicap Markets Explained
• Best Betting Sites for Winners

Reviewed products:

• RebelBetting ValueBetting. I was granted 1 months access to their new value bet finder. It’s an excellent, competitively-priced product that delivers on its promises (as you would expect from Rebel). I’m now promoting it as the go-to option for novice value bettors.
• BetBull. A sports betting app offering tipster integration and social media features (UPDATE: BetBull closed as of July 2022).
• Betfair.?Home to the world’s leading betting exchange. A long-overdue write-up on the Bookmaker section of the site, and the free bet they’re currently offering.
• Smarkets. A Betfair alternative offering a (lower) 2% commission rate.
• Matchbook. Another Betfair alternative offering low commission rates and active markets.
• Several Bet Brokers. I’ve compiled an on-going list of the most reputable Bet Brokerages.

Promoted Services & Content:

• Tipstrr. I want to raise awareness of Tipster platforms that rigorously monitor historical records. There are so many scammers out there to contend with; sites like Tipstrr?combat the problem.
• OddsMonkey. Punter2Pro provides an exclusive offer of ￡1 for 10 days (expires at the end of February, 2019)
• Existing content from the blog.?I felt that I’d maxed-out my reach via Google search results. So I decided to take to Twitter and Instagram to promote old & new content.

Added New Website Features:

• Search function. This can be used from the home page, or in the Blog category section. It was a necessity given the vast array of topics I’ve now covered.
• Category images in the shop section.?It needed some cosmetic work, so I created some neat looking category images with bold text layered over the top. Purely decorative.
• Cover images for blog posts. I felt that the site needed freshening up with some better quality images. I’m relatively happy with the end result.

Updated/Rewrote:

• Best Value Bet Finders
• Best Betfair Bots
• Matched Betting Guide
• Introduction to Value Betting

What Topics Will Punter2Pro Cover In The Future?

There’s a lot more content to come in 2019. I’m aiming to cover/extend topics, such as:

• Bitcoin for sports betting
• Innovative sports betting products
• Advice for new US sports bettors
• Betfair trading techniques in action
• Fantasy Football / Football Index
• Spread betting site recommendations
• Introduction to financial betting
• Ups & downs of professional betting

I anticipate these topics will increase both traffic and profits.

Other Projects Outside of Punter2Pro

I’ve decided to cut back on freelance SEO & writing to focus on ongoing ventures of my own.

I won’t go into details of everything I’m working on — but two of my sports-themed projects might just interest you…

SportSesh

During World Cup 2018 myself and a friend launched a site & app named SportSesh.?It’s designed to help sports fans find local bars showing their favourite team.

We started out by driving UK-based traffic to the site, and attempted to unite fans of the same team at bars in their nearest city centre. In theory, SportSesh?members could enjoy games with other fans of their?own kind…

The problem is, the “same fans at one pub” concept can only gain traction once our site has enough active users. Only then can we deliver the ‘home crowd’ atmosphere we’re aiming for. But we’re not quite at that stage yet.

So instead we’ve opted for a broader approach: to help football fans find all local bars showing their game, wherever they are. Which is perfect for those on-the-move for work, or away for the weekend in an unfamiliar town. It’s also pretty handy if you’re out and about and need to quickly find a closeby venue to watch the game.

The SportSesh map enables anyone to search for local sports bars.

click “showing at this venue” to find out games and fan events going on there.

Fan Events will unite common fans at selected bars in all major city centres.

From a technical standpoint, SportSesh?is in a great place. There’s some neat features we’ve implemented over the past month — such as fan searches, google map connectivity, and several social networking elements. It wasn’t easy.

Building out the database of bars is the next biggest challenge. Nonetheless we’re poised to become the most comprehensive sports bar finder in the UK, within the next six months.

In the future we’ll cover various popular destinations across Europe and the rest of the world. We envisage that wherever you are, you’ll be able to find bars and connect with people on one common interest — your sports club.

Rectrix Sport

On the theme of football, I’ve also launched my own Goalkeeping glove brand, Rectrix Sport.

I was once a goalkeeper myself, and have a lot of respect for those who decide to prevent goals rather than pursue the more glory-filled path of scoring them.

Designing the gloves and the brand took a lot of careful thought and research. But I’m very pleased with what’s been achieved on the product front. Rectrix 1.0’s are comfortable, high-performing, cost-effective gloves — with a neat traditional look.

The tough part is getting them (literally!) into the hands of the consumer. So I’ve devoted a lot of time into improving the Rectrix website, accepting payments through it, interacting on social media, running PPC ads campaigns, and driving traffic onto my Amazon listing.

It’s all slowly building. Reviews are consistently positive, and the gloves have became the go-to choice for several amateur goalkeepers in the UK. It fills me with optimism that customers are beginning to choose Rectrix above the top-name brands it competes with in the same market (Nike, Adidas, Reusch, Under Armour, etc).

The feedback I’ve received from goalkeepers has inspired some new glove designs that I’ll be working on in the near future.

If you happen to play football, then don’t forget that every team has a goalkeeper! Grab a pair of Rectrix 1.0 Goalkeeper Gloves from Amazon for just ￡29.99 + free delivery. You won’t be disappointed with them.

I’ll keep you up to date with more news in the near future.

Thanks for reading this site — I really appreciate it, and it motives me to write more.

The post February 2019: Punter2Pro Update appeared first on Punter2Pro.

Here’s a quick summary of the past year’s achievements, challenges, and plans for the future.

Achievements

1. Increased Traffic/Improved SEO

I receive between 600-700 unique visitors to the website every day. That’s approximately double what it was this time last year.

I’ve spent a lot of time rejigging the website (both visually and content-wise). I re-wrote old content to make the topics more distinct, and relevant. It’s now easier for web crawlers (and people) to locate information from the site.

The improvements seem to have breathed new life to dormant posts, such as:?Will Tipsters Make Me Money?, and I expect to see other posts flourish over the coming months.

Older, more established websites tend to excel in SEO because they’re taken more seriously by search engines (Google). Punter2Pro is beginning to benefit from age; so posts I wrote a year ago have started to generate more traffic.

It really goes to show how patient, and persistent, you have to be to run a successful blog.

2. Industry Recognition

It’s pleasing to see that I’m often referenced as an ‘authority’ on certain areas of betting and sports analytics. In particular, I’m credited for my knowledge on value betting, arbitrage, football modelling and attitude to betting. It’s great to know that my content has been well-received by its intended audience.

I think Punter2Pro is at the point where?those interested in earning from sports betting will, naturally, stumble upon my website at some point.

3. New Topics & Concepts

I’ve continued to focus my site on football — from both fan and a professional bettor’s perspective (although I don’t bet).

I’m a Spurs season ticket holder, and I watch at least two games over the weekends during the Premier League season.?I often spend my spare time digging into football statistics on teams/players. Any significant points of interest will eventually manifest in the form of a new blog post.

I’ve also included more content on sports Tipsters and the “Pro Tipster” industry as a whole. I’m trying to gain more readership from bettors who’ve had negative experiences using Tipsters. I think my site can help give people a fresh perspective on sports betting.

4. Increased Earnings

Since inception, there’s never been a three month period that failed to improve on the previous.?Earnings have risen in line with traffic (approximately). I anticipate that by this time next year this site will generate a very healthy secondary income.

Punter2Pro is extremely cheap to run. The main expense is the hosting — which is well worth the investment. I use WPEngine for my sites: for around ￡300 a year, it’s a bargain. Crucially, it’s made this site faster and easier to scale than it was previously.

Check out?How to Start Your Own Blog in Under an Hour?.

5. Spin-off Projects

Over the last year, I haven’t only focused on this site.

I spent some of my time freelance writing and consulting for other website owners, putting my SEO skills to good use. I also run several Amazon businesses, and other blogs to support my projects. Not all of them are listed on my portfolio site, though.

My overall aim is to integrate several projects together, so they’re able to feed off one another. For example, I launched my goalkeeping glove brand?this year — which I anticipate will appeal to those interested in football analytics, or even Fantasy Football.

I also launched the beta version of SportSesh in time for the?2018 World Cup. It’s a network aimed at connecting like-minded football fans. So there’s method in the football-focused direction I’ve taken Punter2Pro this year.

Challenges

1. Industry Regulations

I launched this site before the online gambling regulations really tightened up in the UK. Online Bookmakers have faced (deserved) criticisms, and they’re being forced to change their advertising techniques.

It’s all in the interest of the public. But it’s also restricted how I promote this website. For example I had my Mailchimp account and Facebook page both closed because I apparently produce content which promotes “gambling”.

It’s disappointing that I’m handicapped by?the stigma attached to online gambling when, ironically, I’m on the very same page as the people censoring my site. I too believe that the public needs to be protected from various risks that come with online gambling (which they’d realise if they cared to read my site).

2. Affiliate Issues

It’s always hit and miss with affiliate programs.

Some are brilliant, like the?OddsMonkey one. Others withhold payments, or don’t track nearly enough of my referred customers. Some even stopped running their program without giving any notice to affiliates. What this means is that I ended up promoting paid services for free.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy to promote good services without receiving anything in return. But if a company makes agreements with affiliates, and treats them badly, then how can you expect them to treat their customers the right way??(i.e. you).

3. The Gravitational Pull of Tipsters

I’ve said it several times: sports tipsters are too popular. There’s several other, better ways to earn from sports betting — but the majority of the public aren’t interested in them.

It’s an uphill struggle to find new and inventive ways of converting the average sports bettor to another methodology.

Plans For The Future

Here’s what I intend to do with Punter2Pro:

1. Bolster my recommended tools.?I want to provide more money-making products to my readers.
2. Integration with my other projects. I’ve made a start already, but there’s still a long way to go.
3. Create an entirely new sports betting product. With traffic at an all-time high, now is the right time to make waves with a new, unique product. I have some ideas.
4. Start a Youtube Channel or Podcast. If done right (with “evergreen content“), it’ll cut back on time-consuming writing. Additionally, using a new medium will help Punter2Pro reach out to a wider audience. I’ve been receiving some advice from a couple of professional Vloggers, so i know how I’d approach it (see my post?What Makes A Good Vlog Or Podcast?)

Thanks for following!

The post Punter2Pro — Two Whole Years Since Starting The Blog appeared first on Punter2Pro.

Here’s the other reasons I decided that writing a sports betting blog was a good idea…

Top 3 Reasons I Started This Blog

1. I Knew a Bit About Sports Betting

I’d previously worked on several projects that involved developing?Betfair trading bots, and sports data analysis tools (for horse racing markets, mainly). When it comes to sports betting odds, I’ve got plenty to say, and I know of a few things that work.?I also enjoy both playing and watching football — which helps when writing football-related content.

Sports betting & analytics was an obvious subject for me to write a blog on.

2. Existing Betting Blogs Were Sending Out the Wrong Message

Another reason I chose sports betting was that I’d read a lot of other blogs/sites and didn’t really like the content. Nothing has changed over the last year, except that bookmaker affiliates have been forced to clean up their act (which is good in my opinion).

Trying to learn about?the best ways to approach sports betting is a minefield. Professionals are secretive about the methods they use. Some people are naive in what they believe, and preach, about betting. But in my opinion, the biggest problem of all is that the majority of gambling-related sites deliberately?put out out poor advice in order to sell products/services that, I feel, aren’t in the best interest of the punter.

For high-quality sports betting products, stick with?these ones. I’ll keep adding to it.

In my eyes betting ought to be approached logically, statistically, with a clear head — never on impulsiveness, guesswork, or ‘feeling’. Plenty of sites don’t agree with my outlook. Superstitious/psychological, risk-taking approaches might work for the sport itself — but the same doesn’t apply for sports betting,?which?requires sound reasoning.

For anyone that’s interested, I think that the two best sports betting writers out there are:

• Joseph Buchdahl (12xpert), and
• James Butler (Betfair Pro Trader).

They understand exactly how it all works. Problem is, they’re possibly too sophisticated and eloquently written to reach out to enough gamblers. Some of the tipsters on Twitter have more influence.

I wanted (and still want) Punter2Pro to offer accessible, entry-level information that’s?superior to the majority of sports betting sites. I’m only part the way there.

By the way — my favourite sports betting blogs are listed here:?My Favourite Sports Betting Blogs (Trading, Analytics, Money Making etc.)

3. I Wanted to Improve My SEO Skills

Above all else, I wanted to learn everything I could about SEO and online marketing. There’s hardly any business I’d even attempt nowadays without a strong online presence. This begins with the website and brand.

Punter2Pro gave me the perfect platform to launch a new site, practice my writing style, focus on getting my posts to the top of Google, market products across different channels, and to learn what people respond to. There’s a lot to it.

If you’re interested in starting your own sports-based website then the good news is that the experience of launching this website is still very fresh in my memory. I’ve provided instructions in my latest post:?How To Start A Sports Blog in Under An Hour.

What’s Next For Punter2Pro?

Constraints & Limitations of a Sports Betting Blog

Time is the main constraint to writing and promoting content for any blog. A website doesn’t grow on it’s own. You have to either apply yourself, or invest in a writer/developer to help.

Thankfully, writing for this site hasn’t ever felt like a chore. I’ve never received abuse or heavy criticism for the things I’ve written — possibly because I don’t say anything too outrageous or antagonistic. Most of the feedback I get is positive. However, that’s not the same experience all other sports betting site owners have (see BetfairProTrader’s final post, if you can find it).

Another downside to writing a sports betting blog (specifically), is being “typecast” to a single sub-niche. Whilst my site is at times, ironically, an anti-gambling site, it doesn’t mean that everyone sees it that way. Sports betting isn’t a particularly broad topic, and doesn’t have a glamorous reputation either (read this post?Why Is Gambling Considered A Taboo?). So it may not open up many new avenues (e.g. collaborations) in the future.

Sports betting doesn’t define everything I’ve done, or what I will do in the future. So I’ll be focusing on projects that are slightly more diverse.?I have plans of developing “broader” sites in 2018 that are loosely related to sports — just not betting or analytics.?In the meantime, I won’t be changing the direction of Punter2Pro… or neglecting it.

So How’s It Gone In Year One?

The project has gone well. I’ve seen a vast increase in traffic, along with sales of affiliate products. Currently it receives around 300-320 unique visitors per day (anything from 500-800 page views).

Under the same format as this site, and in the same time frame, I’ve also written an entirely different blog about starting out in aviation, called Fly GA.

One of the difficulties I currently have is knowing where the saturation point is for my traffic. How big can Punter2Pro realistically get? It can’t simply continue to grow exponentially, because the “professional sports betting blog” sector isn’t infinitely big.

I could?reach out to more people and earn more if I introduced tipping services and other products to the site. It would broaden my audience enormously. But that could mean compromising the one thing Punter2Pro is good for: giving my honest views about the best ways to bet. So I’d have to be careful about how I cover that type of content.

Granted I’ve had to realign my content several times to achieve some kind of ‘identity’. But I feel that finally, now that Punter2Pro ‘knows’ what it is, the future looks bright.

If you’re interested in launching your own website and need written content, then you can enquire about my freelance services, here. Over the last year I’ve written for various sites, across different niches.

The post Why I Started Writing Punter2Pro (1 Year On) appeared first on Punter2Pro.

So here’s what’s new with Punter2Pro…

From?Horse Racing To Football

I started out the blog writing predominantly Horse Racing posts. It really is the best sport to trade on Betfair. Horse Racing?practically exists for betting, and exploring the markets opens the door to a lot of opportunities as a professional gambler.

But despite this, I wanted to steer Punter2Pro away from being just about Horse Racing. After all, the principles on this blog apply to any sport. Furthermore, in some situations (e.g. Matched Betting) you’d avoid?Horse Racing events and look for another sport with lower odds — like football.

I’m a football fan. I watch a lot of Premier League games, and I go to some?as well. The thing I?find most interesting about going to games is hearing so many opinions that I simply don’t agree with. And it’s probably a good thing, because popular opinions often manifest in odds that I don’t agree with either…

For example, this last weekend I noticed that (pre-game) West Brom were 13.5 to beat United. It was unlikely they’d win (and they didn’t, it was a draw). But 13.5? To me this looked particularly good value — and I’m sure it was?for Betfair traders that Backed pre-game and Layed in-play.?Time and time again we’ve seen United fail to capitalise against ‘lesser’ teams. It’s interesting that other (better) teams inside the top 6, who have been far more consistent than United this season, wouldn’t be given that same level of expectation at home.

These are the sorts of things I look for, and write about. The good news is, you don’t need to be a mathematician to grasp where a selection might?be mispriced (but if you just so happen to be a mathematician, then that’s also handy).

In case you missed them, here’s some of my football posts:

• Complete Guide To Football Betting
• Why Making Accurate Football Betting Predictions Is So Difficult
• The Basics Of Creating a Football Prediction Betting Model

There’s also an?ongoing football betting ‘experiment’ I’ve featured on this site: the Mug Bets.

Mug Bets — How Am I Getting On?

To accompany my football posts, I’m undertaking a ‘Mug Betting‘ experiment.

In this ‘experiment’ I try to find an advantage without using any numerical analysis to support my selections. I simply look at the odds, form an opinion and then Back it on Betfair. This isn’t the way I recommend betting.?But I know full-well that there are still several weaknesses and oversights made by mathematically compiling your own odds in a spreadsheet, and identifying value that way.

To be fair, I’m doing pretty well. I’m currently holding a +10.53% ROI after 183 bets. There’s probably Tipsters?selling their selections off the back of that sort of record! There’s no indication that I’m onto a losing trend, which is good.

But the problem is, I haven’t gained any profit in the last few months. During this period the results have fluctuated, resulting in a ‘flat’?net?position. So why?have I stopped earning a profit? Well, here’s my thoughts.

• I may have been lucky at the start, and now the results are evening out.?I made no secret of the fact that I expected my ROI to dwindle over time. This was the likely outcome following the flying start.
• My ideas worked well?earlier in the season… and no longer do.?My points of view might have?worked well initially — but football isn’t static. If i?haven’t adapted to new changes or circumstances, then my opinions might have weakened?as a result.
• Increased pressure form teams to get results. Teams near the bottom are panicking and doing their utmost to avoid being dragged into a relegation battle (e.g. Palace beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge!). At the top of the table the fight for top 4 is tight, meaning?teams like Arsenal and United will?sweat it out for a Champions League spot.

To succeed with the Mug Bets I need to adapt the way I think about the upcoming fixtures*. I can’t hold the same points of view that I did earlier in?the season. Additionally, there’s often unpredictable results towards the end of the season — so?it won’t be easy.

(*Or just get lucky. Rightly or wrongly, I’m quietly confident that I’ll pull through and end the season with a tidy profit).

Value Betting… With Proof!

I write about value betting a lot on this blog. But I fully appreciate that it means nothing without evidence. After all, it’s not unreasonable to ask: can you really?capitalise on ‘incorrect’ odds to earn a profit?

The answer is “yes, you can”.

If you’re sceptical, then feast your eyes on the latest results below…

after 1,564 ￡5 bets I’m almost exactly on the ev line. coincidence?

It’s no coincidence that the results follow the EV line. If you have an ‘edge’ in your bets, then over a lot of data points (e.g. 1,564), you’ll expect to see profit in your results. In this case the profit is?almost exactly in line with the estimations given by Trademate.

• I record my value betting progress?here.
• To learn more about the value betting subscription packages offered by Trademate, check out our shop, here.

SIGN UP TO TRADEMATE TODAY

A New Experiment…

In the past I’ve written about?Beating the SP?and proven its profitability. But in practice, just how difficult is it to Beat the SP?

This is what I aim to find out. I will use cheap, readily available tools on the market to make unbiased, ‘cold‘ predictions as to where I think the market direction will go. I’ll record my results and show them to you.

Stay tuned to the blog!

Further Reading:

The Best Value Betting Software/Finder 2018

What is Value Betting? What Is A Value Bet?

The post April 2017: Punter2Pro Update appeared first on Punter2Pro.

Recently I was invited to talk on BBC Radio 4 to offer my knowledge on sports betting for?a news report about a high profile betting investment fund named ‘The Winning Express’, which has recently come under heavy scrutiny. Many investors to the fund were promised “guaranteed profits” — but instead ended up losing all of?their money, and in some cases, even their home.

The Winning Express — Was It A Scam?

What BBC journalists were trying to establish was whether or not the Winning Express could possibly earn money to begin with, and if so, then?what really happened to all of the lost?investment money?

I learnt very quickly that the Winning Express involved in, at least in part, arbitrage betting on various sports. So?I explained the theory of arbitrage to the journalist and made it clear this is in fact a profitable betting technique that shouldn’t in itself be labelled a “scam”. I described arbing as the players’ equivalent to maintaining balanced books: it guarantees a profit due to the prices being in their favour, as opposed to the Bookmakers’.

You can learn more about arbitrage here:?Does Arbitrage Betting Work? Is It Worth The Effort?

But the more I heard about the Winning Express, the more I started to think that the business itself — as opposed to the betting strategy — was the issue. The problem appeared to be that customers — many of whom were retired ex-pats living in Spain — were promised vast riches and?over-inflated returns. Supposedly figures such as “25% return on investment” were banded around. After hearing this,?I stopped giving the Winning Express the benefit of the doubt and instead turned my attention to criticising these percentages. Herein lies the problem:

• Bookmakers detect & close down Arbers: this means that it’s almost impossible to truly predict what ROI you will make from it. You can’t be sure whether your betting accounts will be able to bet on arbs for a week or a day — so to promise a fixed ROI of such a high amount is false advertising.
• Maximum bet sizes are?low:?It’s not how much you invest, it’s how much you’re actually able to bet at the Bookmakers. This is something you have no control over when you’re arbing. Bookmakers restrict stakes on arbs, which means that you cannot guarantee that you’ll bet enough to make the returns you’re aiming for.
• Bookmakers have different tolerance levels: some Bookmakers allow you to bet more than others. Some are very tight on arbers, and some aren’t too bothered. Sometimes a ‘loose’ Bookmaker may suddenly decide to tighten up. It’s all very unpredictable, therefore you can’t rely on an fixed profit estimate such as “25% ROI”.

Essentially, there’s a ceiling on what can be made from arbitrage. Investing more money into it won’t maintain the same ROI if you can’t bet through enough of your money. So the ROI ought?be more accurately described as a ROS — a “Return on Stake”. Therefore the Winning Express surely shouldn’t have taken investments over a certain amount.

The Winning Express supposedly had a lot of happy and frequently paid investors up until people began to invest more money. This ties in to the previous point about the ROI being infeasible. Perhaps the company failed to realise that they were always at the mercy of the Bookmakers.?If so, then it begs to ask what happened to the investors’ money?

Well, one suggestion?was that people were re-selling the ‘Winning Express’ without permission. So for example someone would re-sell to someone else and offer lower returns of, let’s say, 10%. If the re-seller expected a 25% return on that investment, then he’s looking at clipping a +15% profit — ironically an arbitrage of his very own! This would form a pyramid-type scheme around the Winning Express, whereby failure to deliver the expected ROI could cause a knock-on effect that’s detrimental to those?lower down in the pyramid.

It’s believable?that scammers?were able to take advantage of older Brits by convincing them to sign up to the Winning Express through them. Whilst younger generations would surely?Google the company before parting with their money,?older people aren’t all?tech-savvy enough to do so themselves. Scammers may have even pocketed the money without investing it at all.

Whether or not the Winning Express itself was a scam, or whether re-sellers built a scam around the fund remains unknown. However, I believe?that if the fund was truly genuine, then they would’ve either capped the investments or otherwise invested their own money from the outset.

The moral: Don’t invest in gambling funds. Look for your own value.

Further Reading:

Does Arbitrage Betting Work? Is It Worth The Effort?

What’s The Best Sports Arbing Software?

The post Was The Winning Express A Scam? (BBC Radio 4 Interview) appeared first on Punter2Pro.

Punter2Pro?News

The Blog

For those of you that are familiar with this site, you’ll already know how it’s set up. But if you’re totally new, and?you’re interested in learning more about professional sports betting or trading, then there’s plenty of helpful posts you can read from the?following blog categories:

• Professional Betting
• The Fundamentals
• News & Updates

There’s more content to come, too. I currently have a backlog of around 50+ posts that I endeavour to write (eventually).?I’ll get there with it, so stay tuned and sign up to the Newsletter in the top right of this page to receive updates.

Quora

In order to provide ongoing value to my readers I decided to answer very specific questions about sports betting. These are the types of questions that my blog posts may not cover, or emphasise. For this I use Quora.

I try to remain unbiased in what I write. Hopefully my answers will help steer you well away from the typical mistakes that many sports bettors make. I tweet out the answers to interesting questions on the Punter2Pro?account. By the way, we’ve got over 4,700 followers now — so why not join?

Using the most interesting Quora answers,?I’ve been compiling?a Sports Betting Q&A. The questions are categorised to make it easier to find what you want.

…But if you disagree with any of my answers I won’t be offended! Have your input?on Quora, Twitter or in the comments section of the relevant page.

Further Reading:

Ultimate Sports Betting Q&A

Article Categories

The post November 2016: Punter2Pro Update appeared first on Punter2Pro.