This article will break down the differences, highlighting the pros and cons of new betting sites and established brands to help you decide which type is the best fit for your betting experience.

What’s the Appeal of New Betting Sites?

New UK betting sites bring fresh ideas and exciting innovations to the table. Here’s why they might catch your attention:

Fresh Features and Design

New sites often introduce modern, sleek designs and user-friendly interfaces, optimised for seamless navigation and quick access. They’re usually tailored to mobile use and incorporate innovative features like odds boosts, bet builders, social features such as tip recommendations, and a rich array of live statistics.

Generous Promotions and Bonuses

New betting sites frequently offer lucrative welcome bonuses, free bets, and other perks to attract users. These can sometimes be more generous than those offered by established brands trying to retain customers.

Innovative Technology

Many new sites use cutting-edge technology, incorporating features like live streaming, personalised bet tracking, and enhanced statistics and graphics. Some even offer cryptocurrency betting and other specialised payment options.

Niche Specialisation

Some new betting sites cater to specific betting markets or sports niches, like eSports, virtual sports, or live betting. This can provide a unique experience for those interested in specialised betting markets.

Why Established Brands Continue to Thrive

Established brands have stood the test of time for a reason. Here’s what keeps them on top:

Reputation and Trust

Established brands have a history of reliability, transparency, and safety, which can be especially important for players who prioritise security. They’ve built their reputation over time and are known for adhering to regulations laid out by their regulators.

Loyalty Programs and Ongoing Promotions

These brands typically offer ongoing promotions, VIP programs, and loyalty rewards for regular users. For long-term players, loyalty bonuses and free bets may be more valuable than one-off welcome offers.

Customer Support

Well-established sites usually offer robust customer service options, including live chat, email, and phone support. With extensive customer bases, these brands have invested in customer support, ensuring help is readily available.

Wide Betting Options and Sports Coverage

Major betting brands provide a comprehensive range of sports and betting markets, making them ideal for players who prefer to have a variety of options in one place. This includes less common sports and niche markets.

Head-to-Head Comparison: Key Factors to Consider

Comparing new and established betting sites helps highlight their differences. Here’s a breakdown of key factors to consider when choosing:

Pros and Cons Summary: New vs. Established Betting Sites

Each type of site comes with its strengths and drawbacks. Here’s a quick overview to guide your decision:

New Betting Sites:

• Pros: Attractive welcome bonuses, innovative technology, tailored for niche interests (e.g., eSports), and alternative payment options (cryptocurrencies).
• Cons: Limited trust history, fewer customer support options, and smaller sports coverage compared to established brands.

Established Betting Sites:

• Pros: Longstanding reputation, comprehensive customer support, consistent promotions, and broad sports coverage.
• Cons: Smaller welcome bonuses, slower adoption of new tech, and occasionally outdated user experiences.

Which Betting Site is Right for You?

Choosing between new and established betting sites depends on what you value most. New sites are perfect for those seeking generous bonuses, innovative features, and niche markets like eSports. They also offer less-popular payments through digital wallets and/or cryptocurrencies.

However, if security, a wide range of sports markets, and reliable customer service are your priorities, established brands are a safer bet. These sites offer proven stability, comprehensive support, and long-term rewards for regular bettors.

Weighing these factors will help you choose the platform that best suits your needs and betting style.

The post New Betting Sites vs. Established Brands: Which Should You Choose? appeared first on Punter2Pro.

Tipstrr is an online platform that connects sports bettors with expert tipsters, providing betting tips and predictions to enhance their chances of success.

Review Contents

What Is Tipstrr?

Tipstrr, launched in 2014, is an open platform connecting sports tipsters with bettors, aiming to improve long-term profitability while addressing trust issues in the tipster market. With a focus on transparency, Tipstrr verifies advised odds and tracks tipster performance, providing accessible records for all to see.

Tipstrr allows tipsters to publish sports tips for free or on a subscription basis, with top-performing tipsters attracting the most followers. The platform also offers free sports content, including match previews and top earners’ countdowns.

Using an automated proofing process, Tipstrr ensures reliability by continuously monitoring tipsters’ selections. This process reduces the risk of scams and provides visitors with comprehensive performance data on various parameters.

Tipstrr’s commitment to transparency and real-time bet commitment prevents dishonest practices like “profit bloating,” ensuring accuracy and accountability. Discover more about Tipstrr’s features in the following article.

Visit Tipstrr

How To Use Tipstrr

To use Tipstrr effectively, follow these steps:

1. Explore Tipstrr: Visit the Tipstrr website and familiarise yourself with the available sports and tipsters. Browse through the different categories and tipster profiles to find those that match your interests and preferences.
2. Research Tipsters: Before subscribing to any tipster, conduct thorough research. Check their performance statistics, historical records, and overall profitability. Look for consistent and reliable tipsters with a track record of success.
3. Choose Tipsters: Select one or more tipsters based on your research and preferences. Consider factors such as the sports they specialise in, the frequency of tips, and the subscription fees involved. Ensure that their betting style aligns with your own strategies.
4. Subscribe: Once you’ve made your selection, subscribe to the chosen tipsters by following the subscription process on the Tipstrr platform. Review the subscription terms and fees associated with each tipster before finalizing your subscription.
5. Manage Your Bankroll: Set a budget for your betting activities and allocate funds accordingly. It’s crucial to manage your bankroll wisely and avoid betting more than you can afford to lose. Tipstrr provides bankroll management tools to help you keep track of your betting funds.
6. Receive Tips: After subscribing, you’ll start receiving tips from the selected tipsters. These tips can be accessed through email notifications or directly on the Tipstrr platform. Pay attention to the recommended bets, staking plans, and any additional analysis provided by the tipsters.
7. Track Performance: Monitor the performance of the tipsters you’re following. Tipstrr provides transparent performance tracking, enabling you to assess the success rate, ROI (Return on Investment), and other relevant metrics of each tipster. Regularly review their performance to ensure they meet your expectations.
8. Exercise Your Own Judgment: While tipsters provide valuable insights, it’s important to exercise your own judgment. Consider factors such as team news, injuries, and other relevant information before placing any bets. Tipstrr should be used as a tool to enhance your betting decisions, but ultimately, you are responsible for your own bets.

Always remember to gamble responsibly. Set limits on your betting activities, both in terms of time and money.

Browsing Tipsters

Users can start shopping for tipsters on Tipstrr without even opening an account. There’s no paywall preventing anyone from browsing through the profit records on the platform. So where should you start?

I recommend browsing tipsters by sport. Searching for tips on specific events is great in theory, but it doesn’t always bring up a wide enough variety of options until close to the event time. That’s one weakness of an otherwise great interface.

In terms of sports available, Tipstrr is geared towards the UK favourites of Football and Horse Racing — so I’d stick to those. Unfortunately, some other sports are lacking on Tipstrr as the platform evidently needs more influence from other sporting disciplines. Nonetheless, there still are some very strong offerings that’ll interest those looking for an honest service above anything else.

Let’s take a look at the horse racing section — Tipstrr’s most prominent sport. If you want free tipsters, you’re best off following the blue hyperlink in the introductory paragraph. What follows after it are some of Tipstrr’s recommended paid services.

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The key to getting the most from the site is to identify tipsters with the steadiest long-term record. I’ll show you how to do that using the filters.

Visit Tipstrr

Filter by Sample Size & ROI

Scroll to the bottom of the page to find the search tool. I recommend applying the filters as follows:

• Tipster type: All
• Period: All time
• Min ROI: 5% (respectable for non horse racing)
• Min tips: 500 (the more the better)

Keep mind that a large sample size is vital for judging results.

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Hit the ‘apply filters’ button. Then click on a service with a steady graph that represents consistency over time. This is much more preferable to an erratic profit graph — even if it shows an obscenely high ROI.

For example, the following service shows too much downtime, and little consistency from the graph preview. Also, the high average odds suggest an unusual method, to say the least!

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Here’s a better example. The graph is very consistent, suggesting the service is constantly active. The stats look sensible. It’s no surprise that SVB Tips is in fact a popular service.

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Checking The Stats

You should always delve deeper into a tipster service by clicking ‘view stats’ on the tipster’s profile page. Here’s what to look for:

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1. An impressive ‘level stake’ performance

Make an educated guess as to whether a service is likely to perform well in the future. There’s no guarantees it will — but to maximise your chances I recommend ticking the ‘flat stake’ box and checking the performance for:

• Past 3 months — look for consistency and profitability over recent tips
• All time — look for a consistent historical performance since the service started out (it’s not all about the here and now).

In the case of SVB Tips the ‘All time’ level stakes graph looks great. Note that this graph always shows the ‘All time’ performance, even if you change the dropdown to another period. The figures below it highlight the month on month performance.

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Visit Tipstrr

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If you scroll down, you’ll find the breakdown of the profit per sport for ‘All time’.

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Now, if you scroll back up change the dropdown from ‘All time’ to ‘3 months’, the stats will change. Again, recent results here are remain consistent with the overall record. That’s a good sign.

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2. High frequency of bets

You want to make sure you’ll receive enough tips per month. So scroll to the bottom of the page to verify how many selections have been tipped over recent months. In this example case the past three months have delivered 175, 175, and 215 tips respectively. That’s a decent number of bets by most standards. Again, the more the better.

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3. Practical publishing time

Make sure that the service provides selections at a time that’s convenient for you. Refer to the publish time chart for this.

If 8am-12pm is not practical for you to place bets, then this service wouldn’t be suitable.

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4. Reasonable subscription cost

You can check the cost for a service on the ‘subscription’ tab of the tipster’s profile. Many of them come with a generous trial period.

Always estimate the likelihood that you’ll cover the cost of your tipster, basing your calculations on past results. A simple way to do this is to multiply your estimated monthly turnover (total stakes) by the ROI. If this easily covers the cost then it’s probably suitable for you. Be aware that some subscriptions might be too high for your turnover.

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Once you subscribe to a tipster — free of subscription — you’ll be notified of tips via email in the following format. It’s neat, simplistic and standardised:

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Visit Tipstrr

Subscription Cost

The cost of using Tipstrr varies depending on the tipsters you subscribe to and the level of access you desire. Each tipster sets their own subscription fee, which can range from a few pounds/dollars per month to higher amounts. There are generally different subscription options, such as monthly, quarterly, or yearly plans.

Tipstrr also offers a premium service called Tipstrr Pro, which involves a separate subscription fee.

Free tips or trial periods are available from some tipsters. So to manage costs effectively, evaluate tipsters’ track records relative to their subscription fees.

Positives of Tipstrr

Here’s what I like most about the Tipstrr proofing site.

Automated Proofing

Tipstrr employs automated proofing systems that provide an accurate and detailed assessment of tipsters’ performance.

This helps to maintain a dynamic approach to performance assessment, ensuring that no service is permanently endorsed solely based on past performance. The platform actively monitors and evaluates tipsters’ ongoing performance to ensure ongoing quality and accountability.

Accountability

Tipstrr maintains transparent performance tracking, allowing users to assess the historical performance, success rates, and return on investment (ROI) of each tipster. This transparency ensures accountability and helps users make informed decisions about the tipsters they choose to follow.

Lots of Tipsters

Tipstrr? welcomes anyone to sign up for proofing without requiring an invitation. This inclusive approach encourages tipsters from diverse backgrounds to join the platform, creating a wide range of expert tipsters who specialise in various sports, including football, horse racing, tennis, basketball, American Football, and more.

Some of these tipsters possess extensive knowledge, experience, and expertise in their respective fields, providing valuable insights and predictions to users.

Generous Offerings

Tipstrr provides a diverse selection of free tipsters, allowing users to access valuable betting tips and insights without any cost. Additionally, the platform offers affordable trial periods for paid services, enabling users to experience the benefits of premium tipsters at a reduced price before committing to a full subscription.

Additional Content

In addition to the tipster reports, punters can indulge in a wide range of free sports content offered by Tipstrr. This includes match previews and countdowns showcasing the highest earners from the previous month in popular sports.

Visit Tipstrr

Negatives of Tipstrr

Here’s what I don’t like about the Tipstrr proofing site.

Lacks Independence

It’s important to note that the Tipstrr platform is not independent from its tipsters. The site’s revenue is tied to the subscriptions it sells, which could potentially influence the way tipsters are promoted or featured on the platform.

No "Practical Profit"

One area where the detailed reports provided by Tipstrr could be further enhanced is by including a “practical profit” metric. that accounts for factors such as subscription fees and obtaining the advised odds This would provide users with a more accurate representation of potential earnings.

Lacks Various Sports

Although Tipstrr offers insights and tips for popular sports like Horse Racing and Football, it falls short in terms of providing content for other sports. Punters interested in sports outside of these popular categories may find limited options and resources on the platform. Expanding the range of covered sports would greatly enhance the platform’s appeal to a wider audience.

No Event-Specific Tips

In terms of event-specific tips, there is a lot of room for improvement. Tipstrr could enhance the user experience by offering a day pass that provides access to event tips from all top tipsters. This would allow users to receive a diverse range of expert insights and recommendations for specific events.

No Portfolio Building Advice

Another aspect where Tipstrr could improve is providing clearer guidance on portfolio building. While the platform offers various tipsters and strategies, it lacks comprehensive guidance on how to construct a well-rounded portfolio or effectively manage one’s betting activities. Incorporating tools, educational resources, or expert advice on portfolio management would greatly benefit punters seeking to maximise their chances of success.

Is Tipstrr Worth It?

I recommend Tipstrr primarily for its neat interface, advanced auto-proofing system, highly detailed reports, and overall focus on transparency. The site poses a serious threat to the vast majority of rival proofing sites, and offers vigilant members the ability to identify profitable services long before they hit stardom.

But Tipstrr certainly has room for improvement — as does every other tipster proofing service I’ve ever seen. No question, Tipstrr comes up short on some sports. And some of its recommended services are popular enough to create issues in getting on the advised odds.

Nonetheless, whether you’re a casual or regular bettor, the site does a fantastic job of connecting punters to multiple tipsters. It drastically improves transparency within the industry and, importantly, offers the potential for punters to improve profitability. It’s a big step in the right direction for the tipster scene — that’s why it deserves a recommendation on this site.

You might be interested in my list of the top tipster sites, which features Tipstrr. Alternatively feel free to browse my favourite tipsters for all major sports below (most of which were found using Tipstrr):

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Verified Tipsters

• Best Tipsters
• Free
• Multiples
• Football
• Horse Racing
• Basketball
• Tennis
• Esports
• Baseball
• American Football

Recent Rankings

October 2024 | Top Football Tipsters

October 2024 | Top Horse Racing Tipsters

See More

Visit Tipstrr

More Tipster Sites

Smart Betting Club Review | Comprehensive Tipster Proofing Service 2024

Betting Gods Review | Proofed Tipsters For Various Sports

The post Tipstrr Review | Automated Proofing Of Sports Tipsters appeared first on Punter2Pro.

All figures assume a standard stake of ￡20 per football tip at the advised odds.

The post October 2024 | Top Football Tipsters Of The Month appeared first on Punter2Pro.

The rankings are based on a standard ￡20 stake for each horse racing bet.

The post October 2024 | Top Horse Racing Tipsters Of The Month appeared first on Punter2Pro.

In this article, I will explore what football betting systems are, their benefits, and the key considerations that should be taken into account when creating one. I will also discuss the importance of probability in football prediction and examine three popular types of football betting systems: grading systems, rule-based systems, and the Poisson distribution.

What Is A Football Betting System?

A football betting system is a strategy or set of rules that guides your football betting decisions. It can help you identify profitable betting opportunities, manage your bankroll, and increase your chances of winning.

There are many types of football betting systems out there, and each one has its strengths and weaknesses. In this article, we’ll take a look at some of the most popular approaches to football betting systems and how they work.

Key Considerations For Any Betting System

When making a betting system, football or otherwise, bettors should consider the following factors:

• Profitability: The primary objective of any betting system is to make a profit. A good betting system should have a positive expected value, which means that the expected returns from the system should be greater than the total amount of money invested.
• Bankroll Management: A good betting system should take into account the size of your bankroll and provide guidelines for managing your stake sizes accordingly. It should also have a plan for dealing with losing streaks, as they are inevitable in any betting system.
• Consistency: A good betting system should be consistent in its approach and not rely on short-term trends or streaks. It should be based on a sound mathematical principle or betting strategy that can be applied over the long term.
• Risk Management: A good betting system should also take into account the risk associated with each bet and provide guidelines for managing risk. This includes setting stop-loss limits and avoiding bets with high risk-to-reward ratios.
• Adaptability: A good betting system should be adaptable to changing market conditions and should be able to adjust to new information or developments. It should be able to evolve over time to remain effective and profitable.
• Testability: A good betting system should be testable, which means that it should have a clearly defined set of rules and be able to produce consistent results over a large sample size. It should also be able to withstand statistical tests and be free of bias or data mining.

Creating a football betting system that satisfies all of the above factors can be challenging, so I invite you to check out the Strategies section of this site for a complete overview of what it takes to succeed as a bettor.

The Importance Of Probability

Probability plays a critical role in football prediction because it provides a measure of the likelihood of a particular outcome occurring.

In order to make informed decisions about when to bet, it’s vital to have a good understanding of the probabilities at play. This involves taking into account a wide range of factors, including team form, player availability, head-to-head records, or perhaps even less obvious influences on the game. By analysing this information, bettors can assess the value in the betting markets.

So what is “value”?

A bet is said to have “value” if the odds offered by the bookmaker/betting exchange underestimate the true probability of an outcome occurring. For example, if a bookmaker is offering odds of 5.0 on a particular team to win, but the fair odds for that outcome would be 4.0, then those available odds have value. This is what every football prediction model should seek to find in order to succeed in the long run.

Therefore an important and fundamental skill in football prediction is knowing how to convert bookmaker odds into probabilities and vice versa. The formulas are as follows.

To convert a percentage into decimal odds:

1 / percentage expressed as decimal

For example, an outcome with a 25% chance has decimal odds of: 1 / 0.24 = 4.0

To convert decimal odds into a percentage:

1 / decimal odds

For example, an outcome with decimal odds of 5.0 has an implied probability of: 1 / 5.0 = 0.2 = 20%

The remainder of this article provides an overview of a few basic approaches for any bettors seeking to develop their own football betting system.

1. Grading Systems

A grading system is an excellent starting point for bettors seeking to calculate their own odds to identify potential value in the betting markets. It involves assigning grades or groups to relevant factors, such as team quality or performance, to help make more informed predictions about future events.

In football, a common approach is to group teams within a league based on their level of quality. This usually means assigning a numerical or alphabetical grade to each team, with higher grades indicating better quality. However, it is important to make every effort to avoid bias and ensure accuracy by grouping teams based on statistics rather than relying on personal opinion. One statistical method for identifying “natural groupings” is called k-clustering.

When grading teams based on performance, consider a reasonable time frame that accurately reflects current form. While past performance is a useful indicator, you need to avoid relying too heavily on outdated data as a team’s performance can change rapidly.

When done well, grading teams based on their performance enables the identification of patterns and tendencies among different types of teams that face each other. This approach is often used by both casual and experienced football bettors (whether they realise it or not), as a means of making informed betting decisions.

Using Gradings for Football Prediction

To begin using graded teams for football prediction, you’ll need to gather past results (try football-data.co.uk). Then you’ll have to assign the teams with a grade in order to produce a forecast for upcoming fixtures.

I recommend using Excel to generate a grid of stats for the results of every grade vs each other. For example, if you have chosen 4 groups in your grading system (let’s say A, B, C & D) then you will have the following 16 fixture ‘types’ to account for.

Every potential fixture Type

Within each of the above 16 fixture types there are 3 possible results: Win, Draw or Lose. This means there are 16 x 3 = 48 total outcomes that you need to create statistics for, based on historical performance.

For example, for A vs D (where A is at home) you could determine the following:

• 70% of the time the A grade wins.
• 20% of the time it’s a draw.
• 10% of the D grade wins.

Note that the percentages need to add up to 100% for every fixture type.

In this case, your odds would translate to 1.42 (home win), 5.0 (draw), 10.0 (away win). If you believe these odds are accurate, then you would determine that greater odds available at sportsbooks or betting exchanges would represent a value bet.

Adding More Complexity

Once you have established a basic grading system for football predictions, you can add additional factors to further refine and improve its accuracy. By introducing more complexity to the model, you can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the likelihood of different outcomes.

One possible factor to consider is a goals metric, which takes into account the typical winning margins when teams of different grades face each other. By incorporating this information, you can strengthen your predictions and potentially identify opportunities in the goals markets.

Another important factor to consider when developing a football betting strategy is the head-to-head record between specific clubs. This record can reveal patterns and tendencies that go beyond a team’s overall performance or grade. For example, a club may struggle to pick up results at a particular stadium or against a particular team, even if they are performing better overall.

Weaknesses In Grading Systems

When creating a grading system, it’s important to consider the potential pitfalls that can arise from the data used.

• Runs of form: Analysing a small window of historical data, such as the last 4 matches, can lead to weak predictions based on short-lived winning or losing streaks. Therefore, it’s essential to consider a larger dataset to gain a more accurate understanding of a team’s form.
• Teams of the same grade are not necessarily equal:?For example, some Grade A teams may be superior to others in their group. It’s important to avoid making generalizations that weaken predictions by treating all teams within a grade as equal. Instead, consider a more nuanced approach to grading teams based on their strengths and weaknesses.
• Group structures change between seasons: In one season there may be well a defined number of groups. Currently in the Premier League it’s well recognised that there’s a Top 6. But that’s not always the case.

Realistically, using basic grading systems alone may not be sufficient to identify value in highly competitive betting markets — such as the Premier League Match Odds market. While it is possible to break even with a simple approach, a wide range of factors and influences might be needed to achieve long-term profitability. However, mastering the skills required to create odds using this approach can be invaluable when developing and implementing other more advanced betting systems.

2. Rule-Based Systems

Rule-based systems for football prediction involve creating a set of rules or criteria that are used to identify potential outcomes of football matches. These systems are based on the premise that certain factors or conditions are more likely to lead to a particular outcome.

A rule-based system might use factors such as team form, head-to-head record, injuries, and home advantage to predict the winner of a particular match. The system would be programmed with a set of rules that assign weights to each of these factors and then use them to calculate the probability of each team winning.

One of the main advantages of rule-based systems is that they are transparent and easy to understand. The rules used to make predictions can be clearly defined and the system can be tested against historical data to assess its potential profitability.

Rule-based betting systems can be used in conjunction with grading systems — or any other betting system for that matter.

Using Rules for Football Prediction

Here are some examples of rules that might be used in a football betting system:

• “If a team has won their last three matches and is playing at home, then they are likely to win their next match.”
• “If a team has lost their last three matches and is playing away, then they are likely to lose their next match.”
• “If a team is playing against an opponent who is in the bottom three of the league table, then they are likely to win the match.”
• “If a team has a good record against their opponent in previous meetings, then they are likely to win the match.”
• “If a team has a key player injured and is playing against a strong opponent, then they are likely to lose the match.”

These are just a few examples, but there are countless other rules that can be created based on different factors such as team form, player availability, head-to-head records, home and away form, and more.

Weaknesses of Rule-Based Systems

The main drawbacks of rule-based systems is that they are rigid and inflexible. They struggle to account for unforeseen circumstances or factors that are not explicitly included in the set of rules. You need to ask yourself: how much “power of hindsight” does my rule-based system actually provide?

When analysing past data, it’s possible to identify a combination of “rules” that could have turned a profit if used for placing bets. However, it’s important not to get excited too quickly, as things aren’t always as they seem. To illustrate this, consider playing the classic Sonic video game…

In theory, there will be a combination of buttons that can be pressed at precisely the right time to get Sonic through a level without being hit by spikes or villains, falling down a hole, or drowning. The string of buttons may be complex and far-fetched, but it’s possible to work it out through repeated playthroughs.

A button combination may work perfectly on one level.

However, this one, very complex, death-dodging combination does not help in completing the rest of the game. It’s useless.

So what am I getting at?

The point is, while it may be tempting to analyse past data to identify patterns or rules that “would have worked had I done that”, it doesn’t always form the basis of a good predictive method. So it’s important to approach rule-based systems with caution.

For example, you may discover incidental patterns in football such as:

• “Chelsea have won every away game where bookmakers offered more than 3.0 odds at kick-off and they drew their previous fixture” or
• “Spurs have beaten every team that lost their previous 2 home fixtures,

Even if these statements are true, it doesn’t necessarily mean you’ve found valuable betting opportunities. The danger lies in overfitting the data, where you’re tailoring your analysis to fit the data too closely, and as a result, your analysis does not apply to future outcomes.

Be careful…

Tips to Avoid Over-Fitting Your Data

It’s easy to fall into the trap of being overly confident in our own analysis, especially when it seems to show substantial profits. But there are three critical steps you should follow to increase your chances of effectively using ‘rules’ for football prediction:

1. Avoid making your rules too strict. If you’re too specific, you risk making weak assumptions based on a small subset of data. Keep your rules general enough to capture relevant patterns.
2. Always analyse a large sample size of data. As I explain in my post, “The Paramount Importance Of Sample Size In Betting Analysis,” small samples can lead to erroneous conclusions.
3. Ask yourself whether your rules make sense. Keep an open mind, but scrutinise your rules to ensure they are based on sound logic. Be careful not to let hindsight bias influence your analysis.

3. Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution is commonly used in football betting models to estimate the probability of a team scoring a certain number of goals in a particular match, taking into account their average goals per game. By utilising historical data, this distribution can help predict the team’s “goal expectation” for the upcoming match.

For example, if a team has an average of 1.5 goals per game, the Poisson distribution will calculate the probability of them scoring 0, 1, 2, 3, or more goals in a particular match. This information can then be used to determine the most likely outcome of the match and to make informed betting decisions.

Bettors can use Microsoft Excel or comparable program to develop a Poisson Distribution betting model for use in various goal-based betting markets such as Match Odds (1×2), Correct Score, Over/Under Match Goals, Both Teams To Score and Asian Handicap.

Based on my experience working on football prediction projects involving the Poisson Distribution, I have found it to be a more accurate method than using the basic grading and rule-based systems described earlier in this post. This is primarily because the Poisson Distribution avoids generalising by “grouping” or relying on far-fetched trends. Instead, it relies on concise and meaningful data to provide a more accurate estimation of potential outcomes.

Using the Poisson Distribution for Football Prediction

Pinnacle has published a useful entry-level article on how to use the Poisson Distribution.?I’ll elaborate on some of the key points.

To begin, you’ll need to gather historical football results in order to calculate the average number of goals scored and conceded by each team, both in home and away games, within a specific timeframe such as one season. These averages are then compared to the league average to determine the attacking and defensive strengths of each team.

To calculate the attacking and defensive strengths, divide the Average Goals For or Average Goals Against by the league average. For instance, if the Average Goals For in the Premier League is 1.45 and Manchester City has an average of 1.97, they are 35% above the league average for attack, indicating their prowess in scoring goals. Here’s how it’s calculated:

1.97 / 1.45 = 1.35
1.35 = 135%

135% - 100% = 35% above average

These metrics, along with the opponent’s corresponding values, are then incorporated into a Poisson Distribution formula. This formula determines the probability of each possible result when two teams face each other. By converting these percentage probabilities into odds, as demonstrated earlier, it becomes possible to identify potentially valuable bets at bookmakers or exchanges.

Optimal Number of Games to Calculate Goal Expectation

The optimal number of games to use for calculating goal expectation figures is a subjective matter that requires experimentation. For instance, teams such as Leicester have undergone significant changes over the past decade, making a large window of five seasons less representative of their current form. Conversely, a small window of games (e.g., the past three fixtures) provides limited data to work with.

From my experience, after around ten games into a new season, you have a sufficient amount of current data to work with. However, the smaller the sample, the more likely you are to make poor decisions based on variance.

Combining Poisson with Expected Goals (xG)

Expected Goals (xG) is a more sophisticated statistic that quantifies the goal-scoring likelihood of attempts on goal, providing a scientific evaluation of performances. It goes beyond goals, which don not always tell the entire story of a match.

By incorporating xG data into your football betting model, you can produce a more comprehensive analysis of a team’s performance and goal-scoring ability. This will improve the accuracy of your predictions.

Weaknesses of the Poisson Distribution

While stats-based approaches to betting, like Poisson Distribution, can be effective, they do have their limitations. Firstly, the Poisson only considers measurable results — but there are instances where a team dominates a match but fails to score or loses due to an unexpected goal, such as a late penalty. The final score of a match may not necessarily reflect what occurred during the game.

Another limitation of using Poisson Distribution for football prediction is that it tends to underestimate the probability of draws and the probability of zero. However, this can be rectified using a technique called zero-inflation, which increases the probability of no goals. With this method, the model can account for games where neither team scores and better predict the likelihood of a draw.

While utilising the Poisson Distribution method can generate reasonably accurate football predictions, it’s crucial to recognise that many others are likely using this approach as well. Therefore it is essential to consider the Poisson distribution as a foundation for your model, and to consider incorporating other statistical methods and variables into your analysis. Additionally, always keep in mind that there are variables in football that cannot be predicted or quantified, such as injuries, team morale, and weather conditions.

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The Challenge of Football Prediction

The world of football prediction is rife with challenges due to the constantly changing nature of the sport. Each season sees teams undergoing significant changes, such as new managers, players, and stadiums, while injuries, player bans, and transfers can all impact team cohesion and strategy. Accurately predicting match outcomes can be a daunting under such circumstances.

Moreover, the media hype and noise surrounding football can further complicate predictions, as public opinion is easily swayed by sensational stories. Meanwhile countless variables such as player form, team morale, and weather conditions can legitimately influence the outcome of a games, making it essential for bettors to separate fact from fiction to make accurate predictions.

While statistical models are a far more reliable method of prediction than “gut feeling” or pure guesswork, they too have limitations in accounting for every variable and situation that can arise. Therefore building a successful betting model can be helped with a deeper understanding of the game, and the ability to quickly respond to breaking news and events.

Ultimately, achieving success in football prediction depends on accurately interpreting all factors that will impact the outcome of a match, and capitalising on value in the markets.

The post The Basics Of Football Prediction & Betting Systems appeared first on Punter2Pro.

Cold Traders are known to operate in the Horse Racing racing markets where the odds are highly volatile. But unlike the vast majority of other bettors in the market, Cold Traders don’t study the form, jockeys, trainers, pedigree, the going, and so on. Most don’t even watch the events.

This concept can seem alien to some bettors. Yet it’s highly important to recognise that successful betting doesn’t hinge on what you know about a sport — it’s what you know about odds.

Cold Trading Isn’t As Crazy As It Sounds

Let’s compare Cold Trading to investing.

Many investors buy/sell shares without really understanding a great deal about the company or the business. The reason for trading may be loosely based on trends occurring in the market, some basic analysis, or just a ‘feeling’. Whatever the reason, investors hope for a rise or fall in the price to a point where a profit can be secured.

This is the same approach that Cold Traders take with sports odds. They look to earn regular profits by placing:

1. Back bets (hoping for the odds to fall)
2. Lay bets (hoping for the odds to?rise)

It’s not so unusual after all, is it?

Cold Trading Close To The Off — Liquid Markets

Many cold traders operate within the last 30 (or so) minutes leading up to the race, aiming to lock in small profits regardless of the race result. At this time the volatility is high and the markets are liquid; ripe for quick trades.

Cold Traders often do all of their business before the off, and move straight onto the next race with little to no attachment to the race result.

The below Matched Money graph shows the total turnover for a 14:15 race

What this graph illustrates is the huge rate of change in the total stake during the lead up to the race; a consequence of many "cold traders" joining the market activity late on.

Trading Software

It’s worth noting that professional traders are almost certainly using some kind of betting tool, or automated bot. It’s a competitive environment — so without technology you’re already at a disadvantage. I recommend using Geeks Toy for speedy bet placement.

What Trading Techniques Cold Traders Use?

The most popular trading techniques involve the following methods/approaches:

1. Swing Trading
2. Weight of Money
3. Scalping

However, there’s not exactly a rule book to follow. Traders find their own edge by constantly familiarising themselves with the markets and how they behave.

Cold Trading With A Flexible Time Frame — Illiquid Markets

Cold trading isn’t only associated with activity close to the off. Some traders are more flexible and seek to capitalise on illiquid markets — often represented by wide spreads between the Back/Lay odds.

This is because unformed, illiquid markets have less competition for odds and occasionally give traders an opportunity to Back or Lay at better value than a liquid, efficient market would allow for.

One may argue that being so flexible with time is an impractical approach which requires a high level of input from the bettor. However, Bots can handle multiple bets at one time, monitor unmatched bets and trade out of them when necessary. So it’s certainly possible to work outside of the busy markets.

The Relevance of Wide Spreads

Wide spreads often occur hours before the race, shown by a relatively large disparity between the Back and Lay odds of a selection.?

In financial markets traders believe that, on average, the midpoint of the spread is an approximation of the fair value — and this theory is also widely accepted by professional sports traders using the betting exchange. Basically: if the spread is big, there’s likely to be a price inaccuracy somewhere.

The Top & Bottom of the Spread has Value

Because the fair value [on average] lies in-between the spread, then this implies that the prices at either end of the spread have value.?

Therefore Backing at the top, or Laying at the bottom, of the wide spread presents our Cold Trader with an opportunity to trade blindly, betting on value without ever needing to know any specifics about the selection itself. This is just one approach that might be applied to illiquid markets.

Knowing What’s Profitable

Sufficient historical data must be collected and analysed to identify patterns in the betting markets. Building a large sample of bets is crucial for checking any strategy you devise.

In the case of exploring the ‘wide spreads’ theory from the previous section, traders would need to analyse the past performance of similar cases to be certain that an opportunity exists. However, there’s yet another an uncertainty which remains in this type of strategy: will the bets get matched at either end of the spread after you come to place them for real?

The truth is there isn’t any guarantee that there will enough liquidity to fill your orders (the Back or Lay bets placed, that is). Only ‘live’ trading and monitoring can give you a greater understanding of how well your strategy works. You may come to find that some concepts — such as the ‘wide spread’ idea I’ve mentioned — are theoretically sound, but infeasible to capitalise on in practice.

Traders need to find ways to work around issues such as low liquidity. For instance:

Backing just inside the top of the spread offers?a more attractive Lay betting opportunity (with less liability) for another trader to take.?This is what is referred to as "improving the price", and it increases the chances of fully matching a stake.

Are Statistics Relevant For Cold Trading?

A Cold Trader aims to recognise that an event has occurred, or is occurring — rather than identify the strengths/weaknesses of the participants in the sport (e.g. which horse performs best in certain weather conditions).

Professional Cold Traders often collect large sets of data from the markets and analyse odds movements with the view to identify triggers, or events, where a trade could be made. Therefore some statistics are of great importance.

Cold Traders put particular emphasis is put on the:

1. ‘Value’?in?the odds
2. Predicted increase/decrease?in the odds?(and thereby value)
3. Rate of change in the odds
4. Amount of money matched
5. Market liquidity

So yes — statistics and various other metrics play a huge part in forming Cold Trading strategies. But choices are based on what’s going on in the market rather than sporting performance.

Final Thoughts

Whatever approach the Cold Trader takes, one thing is consistent: they do not hold a preconceived idea as to who they believe will win or lose. It’s a much less biased approach to sports betting.

So you wouldn’t ever find these guys with the Racing Post clasped tightly in their hands, shouting frantically at the TV set. In fact, the less they know about the horses the better — because this only increases the chance of forming an opinion, or emotional attachment to an outcome.

Volatility, liquidity, inaccuracies in the market, and movements in the odds are all that interests traders with the ‘cold’ mentality. And this is perhaps a weakness in the approach: being reactive to the market, as opposed to proactive, may leave the Cold Trader liable to act on the back of noise or false alarms rather than identifying value based on other statistical approaches.

The post Cold Trading — Betting Without Any Sports Knowledge appeared first on Punter2Pro.

There’s literally thousands of Twitter Tipsters to choose from, each specialising in different sports, markets and betting strategies.

Here’s our list of the top 10 Twitter accounts for sports betting tips.

@PinchBet

A leading football tipster, providing pre-game picks and daily infographic profit updates.

@WSTipster

This official WhoScored tipster account provides selections that are backed up by the data from the site itself.

@Bet_On_Value

A tipster that seeks value bets in the football markets.

@TeamMatchbook

Free football tips with coverage on the Premier League, Champions League and other to-flight leagues.

@FootyAccums

Highly popular account providing football news, previews, and recommended bets.

@PicksnTips

An unaffiliated genuine bettor who shares his fancies for the day’s horse racing.

@HughRacing

A horse racing tipsters that impacts the market. His recommended odds move quickly.

@TheCardsTipster

Specialises in cards betting on football.

@MarkStinchcombe

A football tipster that specialises in analytical approaches.

@JustHorseracing

Australian horse racing news, tips, results, fields and odds.

Other Honourable Mentions

The following Twitter Tipsters didn’t make the top 10, but might also be of interest to you:

• @TipsterCharlie – frequent football tips covering a range of markets.
• @TGT_Tips – no-affiliate tips for horse racing and football.
• @DiscreteTipster – researched football tips, specialising in niche leagues from across the world.
• @Z_Tips – a genuine bettor, who produces football selections based on statistics.
• @FinishingPost_ – a?highly dedicated horse racing tipster and enthusiast.
• @Betting_Buddah – provides pregame and Inplay football selections. A popular account.
• Trebol_Apuestas – Spanish account, specialising in European, South American and minor leagues that most tipsters do not cover.

Can Twitter Tipsters Be Trusted?

The truth is, it’s unlikely that a Twitter tipster will guide you to a profit.

Twitter is the perfect platform for tipsters and bettors to offer an opinion on sport, to share news updates, brag/celebrate about winnings and soak up losses together. This makes following an account more fun than betting alone. But there are obvious risks in following tipsters on Twitter:

• Profit & Loss records are often non-existent, incomplete, or fake. There’s been cases where social media tipsters have been found out for “amending” their numbers to increase their profits.
• They’re often affiliated with bookmakers. Most twitter tipsters are looking for their followers to sign up to betting sites through their tracking links. They will often earn from the losses incurred by players they refer. So their selections are unlikely to be profitable!
• Some accounts are misleading. Many social media tipsters prey on punters looking for a get-rich scheme. They regularly hype wins and play down losses to appear more successful. Not everything is what it seems.

Learn more about Twitter tipsters and their affiliate deals.

Free Verified Tipsters

While Twitter hosts many tipsters, selecting verified ones from a specialised proofing site is a smarter move.

Verified tipsters are scrutinised based on genuine records and performance metrics, providing bettors with a higher chance of finding experts who offer genuine insights rather than mere guesses.

The following statistics were last updated 25/04/2024.

So proceed with caution when following social media tipsters. Above all, treat their tips as a bit of fun and not a means to boost your profits. For premium services, check out my list of the best verified tipsters.

The post Top 10 Tipsters On Twitter | Betting Accounts To Follow In 2024 appeared first on Punter2Pro.

Things didn’t go well, to say the least. I quickly identified a tactic that many rogue tipster services use to fake their profit records in order to attract new subscribers.

Here’s a complete account of my experience…

What I Wanted From A Tipster Service

My chosen service had to meet a set of requirements. So I jotted down a list of everything that I wanted from my ‘perfect’ Tipping Service:

• Attractive, professional website
• Well-established
• Provides proof of winnings
• Positive reviews
• A sound, sensible concept
• No claims of “inside knowledge”
• A focus on value betting as opposed to “picking winners”
• An explanation as to why they sell tips if their selections?are profitable
• A Reasonable subscription price

I’ve since compiled a more complete checklist in my more recent article: How to Avoid Bad Tipsters & Betting Scams. Following this will save you from an array of different betting scams, including dodgy tipsters.

Now, I wouldn’t have parted ways with any money whatsoever if the service didn’t, at the very least, meet all of these requirements. And to my amazement I found something that ticked every box, plus more.

One Service Looked & Sounded Great

I won’t name the service I chose — but it was established in the mid-noughties:

• It had a very neat website and login section for subscribing members.
• It came with a (limited) free trial showing historic races, which I thought was a pretty nice touch.
• The proof of winnings section was a little vague — but it presented some convincing profit records, and branded itself as an “investment opportunity” as opposed to gambling.
• At ￡40 per month for the basic subscription package, it wasn’t going to break the bank, either.

Even I had to admit that it looked decent. But I wasn’t completely satisfied yet, though.

I researched the company and their services. I couldn’t find too many customer reviews of the service — but the reviews?I did find were all positive. Truthfully I liked that reviews were hard to find, as this gave the impression that members wanted to keep it on the down-low. Furthermore I discovered that its selections were supposedly “proofed” by the Racing Post, which sounded very impressive. Everything so far seemed legitimate.

Now for the all-important part: the concept, value, and the methodology behind the selections. Does it actually work?

I was looking to scrutinise this aspect of the service, but I found myself pleasantly surprised with how transparent everything appeared to be. The company didn’t try to use the strike rate as a smokescreen — a strategy often employed by Tipping Services to trick na?ve bettors into thinking they’re subscribing to a profitable service (truth is, any of us can bet with a good strike rate by simply choosing low odds).

Crucially, I could tell that whoever had written the content for the website fully understood value betting and what it takes to earn?long-term profits from horse racing. The FAQ section explained that their algorithms incorporated historical data and speed ratings in order to calculate what values they deem to be the “target odds” for each of their selections. By betting at these odds, or above them, customers are expected to return excellent profits. This was right up my street.

As I read on it continued to impress me. It had all the right answers to the questions I had in my head, such as:

1. Why should I believe these selections are profitable?

They explained that 75-80% of their selections contract (lessen) in price by the start of the race. While I was sceptical of this statistic, I reasoned that even if it were 60% it would be fantastic. Backing prices which shorten by the SP will make long-term profits, and I’ve proved this myself in my very thorough Guide To Beating The Closing Line.

2. How likely is it that I can bet on selections at the “Target Odds”?

They stated that the (highest paying) premium members obtain early access to the selections and therefore first dibs on the odds. Prices are expected to drop off a little by the time the lower-graded members come in. However, it explains that it is still very reasonable to achieve the target odds, regardless. So this was good news, too.

3. OK, OK… so why isn’t this firm just betting on the selections themselves? Why are they sharing them?!

This was the all important question. But they had the answer to that as well. They stated that they have capitalised on their betting system themselves and consequently had all of their betting accounts closed. It’s more profitable for them to sell tips nowadays.

Sure. I could just about buy into that idea.

This service certainly talked the talk. I decided it was worth a go.

My Experience & Findings

I was still sceptical but I maintained some level of hope: could this be a hidden gem that’s ignored because everyone assumes it’s too good to be true?

I just hoped that I would find either:

• Value?bets?which beat the SP and generate a profit, or even
• Odds that are so severely crushed by an influx of volume from customers following this service that the odds rapidly fall below their fair value.

In the latter case, the odds could be Layed on the betting exchange — the exact opposite of what the service encourages it’s customers to do, ironically.

First Impressions

I?signed up and deposited the ￡40 subscription fee to gain instant access to the chosen tipster service. My first impression within the first few minutes of viewing the tips was: “the target odds are too low!”.

It was a little concerning to discover that selections with exchange odds of 17.0 would have “target odds” of around 4.0. This would imply that the exchange?was offering abnormally excellent value, but I know it isn’t that simple to find value. Again and again the selections were very easy to back well?above the “target odds” stated.

I could understand that the occasional discrepancy will occur between one’s calculated odds and the industry price — but there was an enormous difference on almost every selection. These markets weren’t lacking liquidity, either — they were well-formed, and likely to be relatively accurate.

I tried to make sense of it. I didn’t place any bets and instead requested past results from the service so that I could load it up in Excel and explore the data myself. The company were actually very helpful and sent over a spreadsheet of 365 days of tips. I began to investigate.

Stripping It Back In Excel

I used an Excel spreadsheet to analyse the data.

I had to make some changes to the data set. There were some rather unusual outliers at odds of 1000/1 which skewed the figures. These had to be disregarded because several of them were apparently winning bets. I was almost certain that those odds weren’t available anywhere to start with. And even if they were then there certainly wouldn’t have been as many winners as the spreadsheet suggested! It looked freaky, so I queried it and the company confirmed that the data defaulted to a value of 1000 whenever there was a “technical issue”.

Ok. Fine. No big deal.

Now that the data looked much cleaner, the next thing I did was produce a graph of the 365 days of betting. Here’s the result.

Backing all tips at the “target odds” using an equal stake of ￡50.

Backing all 27,130 tips at the “target odds” gave a total ROI of -35.4%.

Wow. I can safely say those target odds were not prices that I would?ever?base?my bets around. As I suspected, the supposedly “smart, powerful and accurate” algorithm that the tipster’s website confidently boasted about was severely under-pricing horses.

My confidence in the service had been knocked, but I hadn’t lost all hope quite yet. Recorded within the same spreadsheet were more values named “best odds”. This was intriguing as perhaps these odds represented values that you could easily achieve on the selections provided. I graphed the result of using those odds instead.

Backing all tips at the “best?odds” using an equal stake of ￡50.

Backing all 27,130 tips at the “best odds” gives a total ROI of +99.6%.

It was in confident profit this time — but I wasn’t excited. To put this bluntly: there’s no such thing as a 99.6% ROI in sports betting.?

Looking at the graph I noticed there some pretty drastic vertical jumps in the total PnL. Check out those huge ones around 1/3 the way across. I needed to reduce the data set to see if I could make more sense of those results.

Manipulating The Data

It looked to me like there were some additional issues with the odds being incorrectly recorded. I appreciated that, occasionally, data collection tools fail; my feeling was that the odds were recorded using the Betfair API, and that it didn’t collect a realistic?average price. This could’ve been due to poor market liquidity, or outsiders with insufficient volume.

The easiest way I could improve the quality of the data was to limit the odds I looked at. I hoped that this would concentrate the selections on the most popular outcomes of the race and reduce the likelihood of incorporating vastly incorrect prices. Plus I probably wouldn’t have bet at odds that were too high anyway. I decided a limit of 20.0 was suitable maximum price to cap the results at.

The data set was reduced to 22,286 bets as a result of the odds constraint. I believe this?helped to rectify the problem, as the results appeared to be more realistic.

Backing all tips up to 20.0 at?the “best?odds” using an equal stake of ￡50.

Backing all 22,386 tips (up to 20.0) at the “best odds” gave a total ROI of +15.0%.

While I was still sceptical of 15% being achievable, I could (at least) believe that it’s possible.

So I’d established two things at this point:

1. The “target odds” were useless. I didn’t want to be Backing?anywhere near those values (unless I’m aiming?to lose money).
2. The “best odds” are great. I wanted to be backing as close to those values as I possibly could.

So What Are These Mystical “Best Odds”?

I asked the tipster service this question over email. I received a quick reply stating that the “best odds” were the highest values available from any time up until the race starts.

This concerned me.

Bettors can’t possibly detect the best odds on the lead up to a sports event. If that were possible, then we would all be very rich from sports betting. Nonetheless, I wanted follow these tips hands-on. Perhaps I was missing something.

How Feasible Is It To Achieve The 15% ROI?

That’s the key question I set out to answer. I just needed to know how challenging those “best odds” were to find. I knew that even if I were able to achieve close to the “best odds”, then I would?be confident that?I was onto something pretty special.

To find out once and for all if this service worked, I recorded approximately 500 “mock” bets into a spreadsheet to reach my final verdict.

The Verdict

It didn’t make money.

It appeared to be breaking even. But I decided not to waste any more of my time because I had already reached a conclusion on my findings. Here’s a summary of the results:

• The “Best odds” are impossible to regularly?obtain. You simply cannot know whether the price you back will turn out to be the best price by the time the race begins.
• The service?misleads customers with it’s Profit/Loss records. By assuming the “best odds”, the figures aren’t representative of what’ll happen in real life. Customers will never be able to achieve those results.
• The average odds achieved do?not significantly beat the Closing Line. In my 500 “mock” bets, I averaged 101% of SP. This is to say that the odds I averaged were almost the same value as those offered at SP. There’s no value in betting at these odds.

To make matters worse I noticed that the members area of the service includes a lot of affiliate links to Bookmakers. Of course it does — because it’ll earn the service a rake-back when their customers inevitably lose money by following their tips!

Last Try: Is It Possible to Lay?at The “Target Odds”?

I wondered?about Laying at those poor “target odds”. Is there a profitable Laying strategy buried among the distorted figures?

Unfortunately the answer was no.?

Hardly any of the selections fell to values as low as the under-valued “target odds” — so there was no opportunity for a profitable Lay betting strategy based around the selections.

Therefore I can conclude that this service was, most definitely, a complete waste of money.

What Did I Learn?

Apart from reinforcing the fact that not all tipsters can be trusted, the lesson to take away is that stats are often misleading.

Just because odds were valuable at some point in time doesn’t mean you we be able to obtain them and make a profit. By publishing ‘peak’ odds, this service tricks customers into thinking their selections are profitable when they certainly aren’t.

I’ve written an entire article about the trustworthiness of tipsters where I’ve listed the dangers/flaws in following their selections, I highly recommend reading it, as well as my list of the?Best Sports Betting Tipster Sites Sites. It might save you a lot of time, inconvenience and money!

The post How Rogue Tipsters Can Easily Fake Their Profit Records appeared first on Punter2Pro.

How Does A Multiple Bet Work?

Multiple bets are a popular form of sports betting that allows a bettor to place a single bet on the outcome of two or more separate events. For example, a bettor may place a multiple bet on the winners of a selection of football matches.

To calculate the potential payout of a multiple bet, the odds for each selection are multiplied together, and the resulting number is then multiplied by the size of the initial stake. If all the events are predicted correctly, the bettor will receive the full payout — which will be much higher than a single bet on any one of the selected events. However, if even one event does not go as predicted, the entire bet is lost, resulting in a loss of the initial stake.

Due to the higher level of risk involved, multiple bets require a higher level of skill and research than single bets. This is because a single wrong prediction results in a loss of the entire bet.

There are several types of multiple bets, including doubles, trebles, and accumulators, each allowing bettors to combine multiple selections into a single bet.

Doubles

A double bet involves placing a single stake on two separate selections, and both must be correct to win the bet. For example, a bettor might place a double bet on two football teams to win their respective matches. If both teams win, the bettor wins the bet. If one or both teams lose or draw, the bettor loses the bet.

For example, suppose you want to place a double bet on two football matches:

• Manchester United to beat Arsenal with odds of 2.0
• Real Madrid to beat Barcelona with odds of 1.8

If you bet ￡10 on this double, the potential payout would be:

• Manchester United to win: ￡10 x 2.0 = ￡20
• Real Madrid to win: ￡20 x 1.8 = ￡36

Total potential payout: ￡36

Learn more about Double bets.

Trebles

A treble bet is similar to a double bet, but involves three selections instead of two. All three selections must be correct to win the bet. For example, a bettor might place a treble bet on three different horse races. If all three horses win their respective races, the bettor wins the bet. If one or more horses lose or do not finish, the bettor loses the bet.

For example, suppose you want to place a treble bet on three horse races:

• Horse A to win with odds of 2.5
• Horse B to win with odds of 3.0
• Horse C to win with odds of 4.0

If you bet ￡10 on this treble, the potential payout would be:

• Horse A to win: ￡10 x 2.5 = ￡25
• Horse B to win: ￡25 x 3.0 = ￡75
• Horse C to win: ￡75 x 4.0 = ￡300

Total potential payout: ￡300

Learn more about Treble bets.

Accumulators

An accumulator, also known as a parlay, involves placing a single stake on four or more selections, and all selections must be correct to win the bet. Accumulators offer the potential for high payouts, as the odds of each selection are multiplied together. For example, a bettor might place an accumulator bet on five football teams to win their respective matches. If all five teams win, the bettor wins the bet. If one or more teams lose or draw, the bettor loses the bet.

For example, suppose you want to place an accumulator bet on four basketball games:

• Team A to win with odds of 1.5
• Team B to win with odds of 1.8
• Team C to win with odds of 2.2
• Team D to win with odds of 1.7

If you bet ￡10 on this accumulator, the potential payout would be:

• Team A to win: ￡10 x 1.5 = ￡15
• Team B to win: ￡15 x 1.8 = ￡27
• Team C to win: ￡27 x 2.2 = ￡59.4
• Team D to win: ￡59.4 x 1.7 = ￡100.98

Total potential payout: ￡100.98

Learn more about Accumulator bets.

Pros & Cons of Multiple Bets

Here are the main pros and cons of multiple bets:

Pros

• Higher Payouts: One of the biggest advantages of multiple bets is the potential for higher payouts. As the odds of each selection are multiplied together, the potential winnings increase significantly.
• Excitement: Multiple bets can add an extra level of excitement to betting. When multiple selections are included in a bet, there is the potential for a much larger payout, which can make the experience more thrilling.

Cons

• Higher Risk: The biggest disadvantage of multiple bets is the higher risk involved. As each selection must be correct in order to win the bet, the chances of winning decrease with each additional selection.
• Temptation to Bet Too Much: The potential for higher payouts can lead to the temptation to bet more than one can afford to lose. This can result in significant losses and should be avoided.

How To Improve Success With Multiple Bets

Multiple bets are challenging to win because you must correctly predict the outcome of multiple events.

Here are some simple tips to help improve your chances of success with multiple bets:

• Do your research: Before placing a multiple bet, it is crucial to research the events you want to bet on rather than relying on your own perception. Look at past performance, injury reports, and any other factors that could affect the outcome of the event.
• Limit the number of selections: The more events you include in your multiple bet, the less likely you are to win. Focus on a few events that you have a good understanding of and limit your selections.
• Consider the odds: The odds of each event you include in your multiple bet will impact your potential winnings. But be realistic about the likelihood of each event occurring and weigh the potential payouts against the risks.
• Set a budget: It is important to set a budget for your betting activity — especially with extremely risky bet types like accumulators. Keep the stakes low and, as always, only bet what you can afford to lose.

In summary, multiple bets offer a unique and exciting form of sports betting, with the potential for high payouts from a small initial wager. However, they also come with significant risks and require a higher level of skill and research than single bets.

The post Multiple Bets Explained | What Is A Double, Treble & Acca? appeared first on Punter2Pro.

1. Match Winner = Moneyline

In this market, you place a bet on the outcome of an event by selecting a winner. In Europe this is known as the “Win” market and is presented as decimal odds (e.g. 2.50), while in the US it is shown as a combination of US odds (e.g. Team A +150, Team B +180, Draw +200) and referred to as the “Moneyline” market. The same name applies to other types of Win market such as “Halftime Result”, which is referred to as “Halftime Moneyline” in the United States.

Learn how US Odds work in the Moneyline market.

2. Outright Winner = Futures

In this market, you place a bet on which team or player will win a tournament or league. For example, a bettor can place an outright winner bet on the team they believe will win a championship before the tournament begins. In the US, this type of market is referred to a “Future”, as the result will not be determined until a significant amount of time, and events, have passed.

3. Handicap = Point Spread

In this market, a theoretical handicap is applied to one of the teams to level the playing field, and you place a bet on the outcome after the handicap is taken into account. In the US, this market is known as the “point spread”, or simply “spread”, and is a highly popular betting format in the region.

Learn about the different types of Handicap bets.

4. Over/Under = Totals

In this market, you place a bet on whether the total number of goals, points, or other relevant statistics in a match will be over or under a certain number. In the US, this is commonly known as a “Totals” market.

Learn about Over/Under bets.

5. Accumulator = Parlay

This type of bet allows bettors to combine multiple selections into a single bet. Each selection must win for the bet to be successful and the potential payout increases with each additional selection added to the accumulator. Acca bets are popular in many European countries, particularly for soccer matches, and are known in the USA as “Parlay” bets.

Learn about Accumulator bets.

6. Tote = Parimutuel

This type of betting system pools together all stakes on a particular event and the payout odds are determined by the total amount of bets on each outcome. This means that the odds for each possible outcome are not fixed in advance, but instead, they fluctuate based on the amount of money wagered on each option. The total amount of money wagered is divided among the winners after a deduction is made for taxes and the cost of running the betting operation. In Europe this is known as Tote betting, and “parimutuel betting” in the USA.

Learn about Tote bets.

Final Points

Most bookmakers only allow customers from their own region to play. However, it is still useful to be familiar with both the European and US equivalent sports betting markets for the following reasons:

• Knowledge of different sports: For example, if you are from the US and take an interest in betting on soccer, understanding the European market can provide valuable insights that can inform your betting decisions. This is especially true if the value is not aligned between European and US sportsbooks.
• Access to a wider range of information: By understanding both markets, you can interpret a wider range of information about different sports, teams, and events. For instance, you might follow helpful websites/blogs/YouTube from both regions, in order to make more informed betting decisions.
• Risk diversification: Understanding the nuances of the betting markets within both regions can help in diversifying into new sports in order to spread your risk and reduce your exposure to any one market.

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