Browsing Posts in Yankees

The New York Yankees (50-47) and Texas Rangers (39-59) have dealt with injuries to their starting rotation. Whenever teams deal with injuries, young pitchers must step-up. Two younger pitchers will square off on Monday evening. Texas will send out RHP Miles Mikolas (0-2, 10.05), who has struggled recently, while New York will counter with RHP Shane Greene (2-0, 1.32 ERA). Greene will make his Yankee Stadium debut looking for his third straight victory. Greene dominated during his last start, tossing seven scoreless innings while striking out nine as the Yankees topped Baltimore, 3-0. Unlike Greene, Mikolas hasn’t found his groove. Mikolas gave up four earned runs over 5 2/3 innings against the Angels during his last start. 

The Yankees are coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds. Jacoby Ellsbury went 4-for-4 to help complete the sweep. Ellsbury has five extra base hits over his last eight games and went 8-for-19 against Texas as a member of the Red Sox last season. Record-wise, Texas is baseball’s worst team. The Rangers are 4-24 since June 17th. Texas’ biggest free agent acquisition, Shin Soo Choo, is on an 0-for-21 slide. 

Current MLB betting odds list the Yankees as an overwhelming -160 home favorite. Baseball is a game based on trends and momentum. I’m rolling with the young New York RHP and the Yankee offense that has shown signs of waking up. Take the Bombers today with your MLB Picks!

Free MLB Pick: NY Yankees -160

Carlos Beltran’s fifth inning, three-run home run proved to be the difference as the New York Yankees (41-42) edged the Minnesota Twins (37-45) in the first game of a four-game set, 7-4. The fifth inning blast was Beltran’s 367th career home run, placing him fourth all-time among switch hitters. With 367, he’s behind Mickey Mantle (536), Eddie Murray (504), and Chipper Jones (468). Beltran’s home run gave RHP Masahiro Tanaka (12-3, 2.82 ERA) his major league leading 12th win. Tanaka has been worth every dollar so far this season.

Rookie RHP Chase Whitley (3-2, 4.70 ERA) will look to follow Tanaka and add another win. This will be Whitley’s tenth start of his rookie season. Whitley will be opposed by RHP Kyle Gibson (7-6, 3.77 ERA). On the surface, Gibson’s numbers aren’t very good, but after reviewing his splits, he has dominated at home. In six home starts, Gibson is 4-1 with a 1.54 ERA. Opposing hitters are hitting just .213 against him at home. 

Current MLB odds have the Twins posted as a small -115 home favorite. Given Gibson’s dominance at home, I like his chances against a struggling Yankee lineup. Whitley is 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA away from Yankee Stadium. Expect a bounce back performance from the Twins as they even this series.

MLB Pick: Minnesota Twins -115

 

Runs should be plentiful as the Yankees (40-37) open a three-game set at home against the Red Sox (36-43). Boston starter, Bob Workman (1-0, 2.88 ERA) has not pitched since June 15th. Workman was suspended for six games for throwing near the head of Rays’ third baseman, Evan Longoria on May 30th. Workman’s last start was respectable when he allowed only two runs over six innings against the Cleveland Indians. Workman will be opposed by struggling LHP Vidal Nuno (1-4, 5.88 ERA). Nuno is 0-3 over eight appearance with an unsightly 7.09 ERA. He has surrendered five home runs and 13 runs over 9 1/3 innings in consecutive losses. Nuno has allowed a major league worst 13 home runs at home.

Boston is just 2-5 on their current ten game road trip. Neither of these starters have started in the storied Red Sox-Yankees rivalry. Carlos Beltran has welcomed the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry by homering three times thus far. Birthday boy Derek Jeter is 7-for-21 against the Red Sox this season. David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia are hitting just .227 and .188 against the Yankees this season.

Workman hasn’t pitched in nearly two weeks while Nuno has been terrible at home. I’m expecting a high scoring game. Current MLB odds have the game total set at nine.  I like seeing high totals and I’m expecting a lot of runs. Take the over for your MLB Picks!

MLB Pick: Red Sox/Yankees Over 9

Jacoby Ellsbury received many ‘boos’ during his Boston homecoming as a member of the New York Yankees. The speedy lefty went for 2-for-5 with a double, triple, and two RBIs during a 9-3 Yankee romp over the Sox. Ellsbury’s triple in the Top of the 1st set the tone for the rest of the game. The 12-8 Yankees will look to pick up their second victory over their rival Wednesday night at Fenway Park. RHP Michael Pineda will take the ball and look to build upon his impressive performances thus far. Pineda (2-1, 1.00 ERA) threw six scoreless innings in his last start, a win against the lowly Chicago Cubs. Pineda has already faced the Red Sox and won. Pineda struck out seven en route to a 4-1 victory over the Champs at Yankee Stadium. Pitching in Fenway Park figures to be a big challenge for the burly righty. Pineda made his only start in Fenway as a member of the Seattle Mariners. The Red Sox tagged him for seven runs in 4 1/3 innings. Pineda is hoping for a better outing this time. During his last start, Pineda appeared to have some sort of substance on his hand. We’ll see if it happens again tonight and if the Red Sox do indeed to say something to the umpires.

Pineda will face off against RHP John Lackey (2-2, 5.25 ERA). Lacky has given up twelve runs over his last two starts including a 7-4 shellacking at the hands of the Yankees. Lackey carries an unsightly 6.26 ERA in nine starts against the Bombers since 2010. 

The Red Sox are supposed to get lead off man, Shane Victorino back soon. The speedy switch hitter has not played due to injuries. 

Current MLB odds have the Red Sox installed as slight money line favorites (-123). However, I love to ride hot streaks in baseball and the Yankee bats have been on fire lately. They hit Lackey very well and I expect that to continue. This is one of the rare occurence when we can get the Yankees as a road dog. Take them tonight in Fenway.

Pick: NY Yankees +117

 

Masahiro Tanaka (1-0, 2.57 ERA) will make him Yankee Stadium debut on Wednesday night against the Baltimore Orioles. Tanaka gave up three runs and six hits over seven innings during MLB debut in Toronto last weekend. Tanaka struck out eight and did not issue a walk. 65 of his 97 pitches were strikes. He’ll look to build on that success against a hot hitting Baltimore club. The Orioles scored 14 runs on 20 hits during Tuesday’s 14-5 beat down of the Bombers. Each of Baltimore starters, except catcher Matt Wieters, had multiple hits. The Yankees will look to deliver a beat down of their own to Baltimore RHP Miguel Gonzalez. Gonzalez was shelled for seven earned runs on nine hits in 3 1/3 innings last Friday in Detroit. The Yankees touched Gonzalez up for seven runs last August at Yankee Stadium. Outfielder Alfonso Soriano has two home runs in five career at bats against Gonzalez.

Current MLB odds have the Yankees listed as a whopping -180 home favorite. The Yankees and Orioles have split the first two games of this three game series. Many people will opt to side with the Yankees and Tanaka in an emotional home debut. However, I’m siding with Baltimore. Hitting in contagious and tends to carry over from day-to-day. I’m getting a good price on Baltimore after a 14 run onslaught. The Yankee bullpen is spent and the closer situation is unsettled. I expect Tanaka to pitch well, but I don’t trust the Yankee bullpen.

Pick: Baltimore Orioles +165

Masahiro Tanaka will make his major league debut Friday night against the Toronto Blue Jays. He’ll look to guide his team after a disappointing road trip to start the season. The New York Yankees (1-2) dropped two of three in Houston against the Astros while the Blue Jays split four games in Tampa Bay against the Rays. The Yankees have high hopes for their $175 million man and a strong start on Friday night will be a great start. Tanaka was flat out dominant last season in Japan, posting a 24-0 record with a sparkling 1.27 ERA. Tanaka was the center piece of the off-season, but his contract didn’t stop the Yankees from improving their offense. The Yankees committed $85 million to catcher Brian McCann and over $150 million for center fielder, Jacoby Ellsbury. The Yankee offense as a whole struggled in Houston, but hopefully a stop in Toronto’s hitter friendly park will help.

Tanaka will face off against RHP Dustin McGowan. Due to various injuries, McGowan will be making his first start since September 2011. McGowan missed the entire 2012 season due to foot injuries and exclusively pitched out the bullpen last season. McGowan’s strong spring earned him a rotation spot over LHP JA Happ. 

The Yankees went 13-5 against the Blue Jays last season, but went just 4-5 at the Rogre Centre. 

Pick: Current MLB Odds have the Yankees listed as a modest road favorite (-128). I’m fully expecting Tanaka to come out ready to pitch and start his MLB career on a high note. The Yankee offense is ready to get on the map and I’m fully expecting them to take advantage of McGowan.

Pick: New York Yankees -128

Less than 72 hours remain in the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes. I’ve written a scouting report, valuation study, and just some general thoughts.  Overall, I think a six-year, $120 million deal is pretty reasonable. However, two of baseball’s richest teams, the Yankees and Dodgers, as well as new regimes in Arizona and Chicago have also shelled out nine figure offers. When the competition is this fierce, someone is going to pay a premium. Tanaka’s agent, Casey Close, has done an excellent job keeping negotiations quiet, so we don’t know where each team stands.

When we compare Tanaka to the entire free agent pitching market, it’s not even close–and Close knows that. Based on age alone, Tanaka is three years younger than the next pitcher (Phil Hughes). Skill-wise, an argument can be made that Tanaka has the best ‘stuff’ among free agent pitchers. This article will show us why we shouldn’t be shocked when Tanaka signs a deal in excess of $140 million.

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Yesterday, we heard rumblings that the Yankees were ‘considering a run‘ at free agent shortstop, Stephen Drew. Drew, who turns 31-years-old in March, was the starting shortstop for the Boston Red Sox. In 124 games, Drew hit 13 HRs, drove in 67 runs, and put up a .253/.333/.443 slash. Defensively, Drew finished second among American League shortstops with a .984 fielding percentage. Drew finished the year with a 3.4 WAR, sixth best among shortstops. After making $9.5 million last season, Drew turned down Boston’s qualifying offer of one-year, $14.1 million, in hopes of securing a multi-year deal. Despite grading out as one of the better shortstops, Drew is having a tough time find suitors. Could the lack of demand for Drew create a market inefficiency that the Yankees can exploit?

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Lost in the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes, the A-Rod fiasco, and the optimistic Jacoby Ellsbury signing, the Yankees signed a future Hall of Famer to anchor the middle of their order. No one is talking about switch hitter Carlos Beltran, who quietly signed a three-year, $45 million in December. Among position players, Beltran is 90th in career WAR (64.1). Three solid seasons in the Bronx will vault him in the Top 50 ahead of future HOFer, Craig Biggio (68.1) and 2014 HOFer Frank Thomas (72.1). In 16 seasons, Beltran has 2,228 hits, 358 HRs, 308 SBs and boasts a .283/.359/.496 slash. To put his numbers in perspective, A-Rod is the only other active player with 300 HRs and 300 SBs.

As he enters his Age 37 season, Beltran’s days of double digit stolen bases are finished. However, Beltran’s power has not subsided. Beltran has clubbed at least 22 HRs over his last three seasons and hit at least .296 in two of those seasons. When we factor in Fangraph’s park factors, via Fangraphs, there’s an even bigger reason for optimism. Take a look at Table 1.

Table 1: Park Factors (Busch Stadium vs Yankee Stadium)

Season Team 1B as L 1B as R 2B as L 2B as R 3B as L 3B as R HR as L HR as R
2013 Yankees 101 99 98 97 103 86 114 106
2013 Cardinals 101 99 94 100 97 91 94 90

Higher ratings indicate a more hitter friendly park and when we consider home runs, Beltran gets a giant boost by playing half of his games at Yankee Stadium. For lefties, Yankee Stadium is the second most power hitter friendly park (Coors Field is first) while Busch Stadium ranks in the Bottom 10. For righties, Yankee Stadium is the seventh most friendly while Busch Stadium is in the Bottom 3. Beltran took 71 percent of his at-bats left-handed last season and hit 17 of his 24 homers from the left side.  Add in the luxury of the DH and Beltran should be a safe bet for 70-75 games at Yankee Stadium. Therefore, as long as he continues to receive 600+ plate appearances, Beltran should see a spike in home runs. 

In addition to a boost in park factors, Beltran will likely hit third and have more RBI opportunities than he did in St. Louis. Beltran hit second in St. Louis’ order and had the luxury of second baseman, Matt Carpenter (.396 on-base percentage) hitting in front of him. With the Yankees, Beltran will have Ellsbury (.355 OBP) and Derek Jeter (.362 OBP) hitting in front of him. Add in Brett Gardner (.352 OBP) when the line-up turns over and Beltran, who hit .374 with runners in scoring position last year, will have ample opportunities to drive in runs. Beltran should see a steady dose of fastballs with Alfonso Soriano and Brian McCann hitting behind him as well.

Defensively, Beltran will grade out as below average, but when you factor in two plus defenders in LF (Gardner) and CF (Ellsbury), it’ll off-set Beltran’s shortcomings. In addition, Beltran will like see a third of his at-bats as a DH and the Yankees can insert Ichiro Suzuki into RF during late game situations. His glove won’t kill the Yankees, but he was ultimately brought in for his offense. 

Based on these factors, I think Beltran has 30 HR, 100 RBI, .290+ batting average upside over 145 games. After reviewing some third-party projections, I think analysts are down on Beltran due the stigma surround his age (37) and ‘injury proneness’ (knee injuries in 2009 and 2010).  Table 2 has their projections and my projection:

Table 2: Beltran Projections

Season Site G PA HR R RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
2011-13 Avg 146 606 26 80 88 6 0.288 0.357 0.504
2014 Steamer 122 530 21 68 73 4 0.277 0.343 0.473
2014 Oliver 143 600 23 75 86 3 0.279 0.341 0.471
2014 Fans (23) 129 562 24 76 81 4 0.283 0.345 0.484
2014 NYSOS 145 603 30 85 100 5 0.290 0.355 0.520

Overall, I’m surprised how down Steamer and Oliver are on their projections. Beltran has some major things (home park, lineup, situational advantages) working in his favor. While ‘trying hard’ and ‘determination’ are things that go overlooked, Beltran has always wanted to be a Yankee. Before signing with the Mets in 2005, Beltran was very open about joining the Yankees. At the time, the Yankees had a declining Bernie Williams manning center field and opted for a cheaper Johnny Damon (four-years, $52 million) instead of a more expensive Beltran (seven-years, $119 million). Beltran, who hails from Puerto Rico, grew up idolizing Puerto Rican star, Bernie Williams. Just from listening to his press conference, Beltran is ecstatic about donning pinstripes. 

While most Yankee fans are excited about Tanaka, McCann, and Ellsbury, expect Beltran to relish in a ‘secondary role’. Keep forgetting about him until April before watching him rake all summer long. 

CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Masahiro Tanaka, and Ivan Nova will comprise 80% of the Yankee rotation. The Yankees are holding an open competition for the final spot. RHPs Michael Pienda, Adam Warren, and David Phelps will compete with LHP Vidal Nuno for the last spot. Each pitcher brings some positives and negatives to the Yankee rotation. Today, we’ll walk through each option to see what they bring to the rotation.

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