Browsing Posts in Mets

On Thursday, the New York Mets signed 40-year-old RHP Bartolo Colon to a two-year, $20 million contract. Last season, Colon posted a 18-6 record with a 2.65 ERA as a member of the Oakland A’s. Colon was surprisingly durable, striking out 117 batters in 190 innings. Over the last three season, Colon has tossed at least 152 innings, silencing his critics that his girth (265 LBs) and age (41 in May) will lead to his decline. Still, this signing is high risk and there are a few reasons why Colon could crap out in New York:

  1. Home Run Rate: Over the course of his career, Colon has given up one home run per every eight innings. Colon called Oakland home for the last two seasons and only allowed one home run per every 9.1 innings. The Oakland Coliseum, which is known as a pitcher’s park, is the fifth friendliest stadium for pitchers. After moving its fence in, Citi Field was 14th last season. On the surface, the change from the AL West to NL East should present easier line-ups, but the park factors may make this a moot point.
  2. Injuries: Despite throwing 152+ innings over the last three seasons, Colon has made multiple trips to the disabled list for thigh, abdomen, and groin issues. 
  3. 2013 Playoffs: Colon was passed over for the inexperienced Sonny Gray during the ALDS. Colon had an ugly August (0-2, 8.41 ERA in three starts) and A’s promptly sat him down for two weeks. Colon responded and went 4-1 during September, but the need for a ‘break’ does not exactly installed confidence in Met fans.
  4. Pitch Selection: Call it an aberration or a way to beat Father Time, but a whopping 87% of his pitches last year were fastballs. Curve balls and sliders obviously cause stress on the arm, but one has to wonder how long Colon’s fastball velocity will remain a Major League level. Last season, Colon’s fastball averaged 90.1 MPH. 

If you examine signings thus far, Colon’s deal appears to be a good one. Dan Haren (1 year, $10 million), Scott Feldman (3/30), and Tim Hudson (1/12), received similar deals, but Colon’s workload and performance has been better.However, a 2-year, $20 million deal for a Met team that isn’t expected to compete doesn’t make a lot of sense. The Met won’t have their ace as Matt Harvey rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Colon could arguably be the Met ‘ace’, but he could also re-injure his thigh and miss two months. Colon has never been one to mentor younger players, so the Mets aren’t getting a player that’s interested in helping develop younger players. A two-year deal to a contender would make sense, but for a Met team that needs to develop younger players, it’s a waste of money. This move was strictly done to appease the Met fan base. 

For the first time in four years, the New York Mets opened their wallets and signed an impact free agent. Ex-Yankee Curtis Granderson and the Mets agreed to a four-year, $60 million contract that will occur during Granderson’s Age 33-36 seasons. This signing gives the Mets a power hitting corner outfielder that will help jump start the Met offense. Stop me if you’ve read something like this before.

Nearly four years ago, the Mets and left fielder, Jason Bay agreed to a four-year, $60 million contract. Prior to signing the contract, the 30-year-old Bay was coming off a huge season with the Boston Red Sox where he slugged 36 home runs and drove in 119 RBIs. Met fans were convinced that Bay and David Wright would bolster the middle of the Met batting order. However, Bay only appeared in 288 games as a Met and slugged 31 total home runs. This contract was a huge disappointment to say the least.

When assessing Granderson, a few red flags immediately come to mind:

  1. Park Changes: Granderson is leaving the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium for Citi Field. According to Fangraphs, Yankee Stadium boosts left-handed power numbers by 14 percent while Citi Field only boosts these numbers by one percent. Granderson does have three 30+ home run seasons under his belt including one with Detroit in 2009. Will the spacious Citi Field affect his power output? The park factors say ‘yes’.
  2. Injuries: After getting hit by a pitch in the wrist during Spring Training, Granderson missed months of action and never developed any sort of rhythm. Granderson played in a career low 61 games and only hit 7 home runs. The Mets must be convinced that his wrist injury is not longer an issue. However, he’s not coming off a monster season like Jason Bay was and he never found his stroke during 2013.
  3.  The Yankees: It’s pretty telling when a player’s previous team doesn’t make an offer. The Yankees have spent over $200 million on free agent outfielders not named Curtis Granderson. Hell, the Yankees signed Carlos Beltran, who is five years older than Granderson. Over the last few seasons, Granderson’s strikeout percentage has steadily increased while his on-base percentage is declining. This is not a recipe for success.

Despite his obvious flaws, Granderson has shown he’s athletic enough to play multiple outfield positions. Juan Lagares is slated to start in center field, so Granderson will likely man left field. Granderson isn’t much of a base stealer anymore, but he is one of the game’s most astute base runners. Like I noted in the Jacoby Ellsbury article, speed tends to age well and an athlete of Granderson’s caliber is less likely to hit the wall.

Heading into 2014, projections are calling for Granderson to net 2.5-to-3 wins. If we value a win at $7.0 million, Granderson’s projected value outweighs his $13 million salary. However, the Mets have backloaded his  contract so they’ll take on more risk in Years 3 and 4. On the surface, Granderson presents a tremendous upgrade for the Met outfield.  However, there are some obvious red flags that must be considered and monitored.

The Granderson signing gives ownership and Sandy Alderson an extra week or so to plan their next move. The Mets are still far from being a competitive team, but this signing provides some hope for the future of the team. Add in Granderson’s off-the-field impact and the Mets have the potential for a big time signing. As long as he’s healthy, Granderson won’t be Jason Bay 2.0.

The New York Mets (59-72) dropped a 6-2 decision last night to Cole Hamels and the Philadelphia Phillies (61-72). The Mets will look for the series split as they send RHP reliever Carlos Torres (2-2, 2.96 ERA) to the mound. Torres appeared earlier in the series, tossing 2/3 innings of shut-out ball. Given the injury to Matt Harvey, the Mets will ask for a few innings out of Torres. Torres has been very impressive at Citi Field, allowing just two earned runs in 22 2/3 innings. 

The Phillies will counter with a reliever of their own, RHP Ethan Martin. The Phillies have asked Martin to spot start during the year, but he hasn’t been very successful. Martin has only thrown 21 1/3 innings, but has allowed 15 earned runs and six home runs. Left-handed hitters have hit four home runs in just 46 at-bats.

Pick: The over-under is set eight, so we like the over. Martin has been terrible and Torres can’t be expected to last more than 3-4 innings. The Philly bats have spoken up, so expect them to score early and often against Torres. 

The New York Mets (58-70) will welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (59-71) to Flushing on Monday for the first game of a four-game set. Rookie RHP Zack Wheeler (6-2, 3.49 ERA) will off against Cy Young Award winner, LHP Cliff Lee (10-6, 3.16 ERA). After posting a 5.06 ERA over his first three starts, Wheeler has settled in, posting a 5-1 record with a tidy 3.02 ERA in outings since July 1st. Wheeler struck out a career high 12 hitters in San Diego on August 15th and followed up that performance with a 6 2/3 inning performance against the Braves last week. 

Cliff Lee has gone winless over his last six starts, but has only received eight runs of support. Lee has a 4.62 ERA over his last six games. Lee had a career 5-1 record with a 2.09 ERA over his first five starts against the Mets before dropping a 5-0 decision earlier this season.

The Mets have been outsourced 24-5 during their recent five game losing streak. The Mets were swept by Detroit over the weekend, falling 11-3 in the Sunday’s finale. The Phillies have won 6 of 8 games including winning 2 of 3 against the Arizona Diamondbacks. 

Pick: The Phillies opened as a -125 favorite and we’re going to continue fading the Mets. Cliff Lee takes extra pleasure in beating New York teams and I doubt today’s game will be any different. The Philly bats are hot right now, so expect the offensive momentum to carry over.  

Detroit will send Rick Porcello to the mound as the Tigers go for the three-game sweep against the Mets. Yesterday, Max Scherzer won the battle of the aces against Matt Harvey by throwing six innings of shutout ball. Scherzer rung up 11 strikeouts and only yielded two hits over six frames. Luckily for the Mets, Rick Porcello is not Max Scherzer. Porcello, a New Jersey native, boasts a 9-7 record with a 4.52 ERA. Over his last three starts, Porcello is 1-1, but has given up 24 hits and 11 earned runs. Oddly enough, Porcello’s road splits (5-4, 3.90 ERA) are much better than his home split at the spacious Commerica Park (4-3, 5.09 ERA). The Tigers hope Porcello can utilize the pitcher friendly Citi Field to his advantage.

The Mets will send righty, Dillon Gee (9-8, 3.60 ERA) to the mound in hope of stopping the sweep. Unlike Porcello, Gee has fared much better recently, winning four of his last five decisions including 7 2/3 innings, nine strikeout masterpiece against the Minnesota Twins. Gee has enjoyed the friendly confines of Citi Field. Gee is 4-3 with a 2.21 ERA.

Once again, the Tigers opened as a -140 money line favorite. The Tigers recorded 13 hits off of Matt Harvey, so Vegas expects them to keep hitting against Dillon Gee. Expect the Tiger bats to finish off the sweep at Citi Field.

New York baseball fans are in for a treat as two Cy Young hopefuls take in the mound in Flushing. Max Scherzer (18-1, 2.82 ERA) will face off against righty sensation, Matt Harvey (9-4, 2.25 ERA). Scherzer and Harvey faced off earlier this summer at the All-Star Game. Harvey is hopeful that his squad will defend its home field.

Scherzer has won five straight decisions, including an eight inning, five-hit performance last weekend against the Kansas City Royals. Scherzer is a perfect 7-0 with a 2.29 ERA in 12 road starts. More impressively, Scherzer posts a tidy 1.74 ERA on the road. The Mets, who have lost eight of their last 12 games, may have trouble scoring runs against the AL’s leading Cy Young candidate.

If Scherzer wants to pick up his 19th victory, he’ll need his offense to score runs off against Matt Harvey. Harvey, who has thrown 171 innings, has only won one of his last five starts. Harvey has uncharacteristically given up six earned runs over last twelve innings. The Mets plan to cap Harvey’s innings at 210-215 innings, so he may be starting to show some signs of fatigue. Still, Harvey is a gamer and has shown he can step-up in big spots.

Pick: Once again, we’re getting some decent value with the Tigers, so we’re taking their money line (-140). Matt Harvey should keep his team in the game, but Miguel Cabrera and co. should be able to scratch a few runs across, which should be more than enough for Mr. Scherzer.

Shortly after signing Daisuke Matsuzaka to their major league roster, the New York Mets (58-67) will ask him to stop the deadly Detroit Tigers (74-53) lineup. Matsuzaka will make his first major league start in almost a year against a star studded Tiger lineup. After losing both Jennry Meija and Jeremy Hefner, the Mets are hoping the 32-year-old will inject some life into the Met rotation. Matsuzaka spent the early part of this season on Cleveland’s Triple A roster, posting 5-8 record with a 3.92 ERA. 

Last year with Boston, Matsuzaka went 1-8 with a 8.28 ERA in just 11 starts. Despite helping the Red Sox to the World Series title in 2007, Matsuzaka is just 17-21 since 2009. Matsuzaka boasts a career 4-1 record in six starts against Detroit, but Detroit’s big hitters have had some success. Miguel Cabrera (4 for 9, 1 HR) and Prince Fielder (2-3, 2 doubles). Luckily for Matsuzaka, the Detroit offense has struggled recently, hitting just .228 with runners in scoring position over their last 14 games (6-8 record). 

Detroit will counter with righty, Doug Fister (10-6, 3.63 ERA). Fister has struggled recently, posting a 0-1 record and a 4.42 ERA over his last three starts. Fister has never faced the Mets and the Tigers are 0-4 on the road in Interleague play. 

Pick: We’re getting some value, so today’s pick is the Detroit Tigers money line (-165). The Tigers are coming off a frustrating home loss to the Minnesota Twins and the Mets have dropped six of their last ten games. The Tigers should find some early success against the erratic Daisuke.  

The nature of the New York Mets this season has been to ride the right arm of Matt Harvey and hope that everyone else manages to lead this team to .500 ball. Unfortunately, the first part remains true, while the second part remains incredibly suspect. New York won Harvey’s start against the Chicago White Sox this week, a complete game shutout in a 1-0 game, while the rest of the team continues to muddle around.

In games that Harvey has started this year, the Mets are 6-1. They are 8-16 with everyone else on the hill.

This weekend, Harvey will get the start on Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates against Jeanmar Gomez in a game that he will once again be expected to win. The questions though, cycle around the games on Friday and Saturday at Citi Field.

It’s going to be tough to make your MLB picks on the Metropolitans in either of these games even though they are at home and will likely be underdogs in a both efforts. Shaun Marcum has only made three appearances thus far this season for the Mets, and he has a 7.20 ERA and a higher WHIP at 2.10 than Harvey has as his ERA. He’ll face off with Wandy Rodriguez on Friday night.

The Pirates have yet to announce who will be starting on Saturday, but regardless of who they throw, they will probably have the edge over Jon Niese. Though Niese has pitched well against Pittsburgh in his career, posting a  2-0 record and a 1.93 ERA, he is coming off of a horrid start against the Atlanta Braves. Niese walked six batters and allowed seven runs in four innings of work. It’s tough to want to back a guy that hasn’t won a game since April 12th, hasn’t won a game without getting at least seven runs of support this year, and has almost as many walks (19) as strikeouts (20).

The New York Mets were never really expected to be one of the better teams in baseball this year, but they probably didn’t expect to be as suspect in the starting rotation as they have been in years. They have two more games on Wednesday and Thursday against the Colorado Rockies before coming home to take on the Washington Nationals, and Manager Terry Collins will have to be careful with his rotation by the end of the weekend.

It is clear that Jonathon Niese and Matt Harvey are the top two pitchers to make your MLB picks on for the Mets. Harvey has been the craze at the outset of the season after he allowed just two runs in his 22.0 innings of work thus far this year. The big righty is one of the few pitchers in the game to be 3-0 after his first three starts on the campaign.

Niese will throw Wednesday against Jon Garland. Harvey has a tough matchup as well, opposing Jhoulys Chacin, who has started off this season at 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in his own right.

New York had better pick up its wins in Colorado, because winning games at home against the Nats will be tough. Washington is setup to throw its best three arms in this series, starting with Stephen Strasburg on Friday and continuing with Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman this weekend. All three pitchers are going to be going on six days of rest.

The Mets, on the other hand, are going to be a bit strapped. Jeremy Hefner is going to have to start one of the three games of this series, and from there, things will be interesting. Both Dillon Gee and Aaron Laffey threw in Wednesday’s double header, and one might have to pitch on three days of rest on Sunday. New York is going to have to call upon its AAA team to provide a starter for Saturday unless one of the long relievers in the bullpen is going to give it a go. Either way, this is setting up to be a long weekend of games in the Big Apple. 

The New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies are just getting a chance to know one another, and they are going to be engaged in MLB betting action for the third time this season on Wednesday night. This is the rubber match of this series after the two teams split the opening two games here at Citizens Bank Park on Monday and Tuesday.

New York has at least had a relatively consistent offense this year. Last night’s 8-3 loss was more a product of good pitching by Cliff Lee than anything else, but the Mets have still put 46 runs on the board this season (5.75 runs per game). That production should help young Jeremy Hefner on Wednesday.

Hefner only came up to the bigs for the first time last year, and he went 4-7 with a 5.09 ERA. In fairness to him though, he also allowed seven runs without retiring a batter against these very same Phillies, and had that outing not happened, his ERA would have been a respectable 4.42 instead. The righty was a tough luck loser in his first game of the year against the Miami Marlins when he allowed just one run in six frames.

The Phils are going to counter with Kyle Kendrick. Once thought to be one of the prospects that would help carry Philadelphia to a number of championships, Kendrick really hasn’t panned out all that well. He has just 56 wins under his belt in six seasons, and he had an ominous start to the season when he allowed five runs in 5.2 innings against the Kansas City Royals.

The last time Kendrick faced the Mets, he allowed just two runs in 7.2 innings, striking out six men without issuing a walk. However, the righty did allow two home runs, and he has had problems with the long ball in his last eight outings, allowing nine dingers in that stretch dating back to last year.