Browsing Posts in NCAA

  • Your most critical pick: The Champion
    • Avoid teams that shoot a high rate of 3-point shots unless they have 5 future NBA starters LOL
  • Your ‘Champion Pick’ strategy depends on pool size.
    • Small Pool (<10 people): Pick the most likely Champion
      • Medium Pool (<30 people): Pick a Champion whose win probability far exceeds the public pick fraction.
        • Use ESPN to determine public pick fraction.
        • Known as the Contrarian Champion. Don’t pick many early round upsets.
      • Big Pool (>50 people): Don’t bother playing. Too random and sad!
  • Over the last 14 seasons, the higher seed defeated the lower seed 72% of the time. (Don’t go crazy with upsets.)
  • List every team’s margin of victory during the regular season and compare it against the ‘average’ NCAA team.

The 2016-17 NCAA Football has been released and fans have begun circling top match-ups on the schedule. Luckily for fans, the first three weeks in September are chock full of top match-ups between Power 5 Conference foes. Most of the match-ups featured in the first three weeks are not your typical intra-conference match-ups; rather fans can enjoy cross-conference match-ups between some of the best teams in America. In addition, some of America’s most famous venues will host the games.

While Clemson and Alabama are considered the favorites heading into this season, there are numerous teams that could make some noise. Ohio State and Oklahoma are hoping to bounce back after endings to their seasons while Georgia and LSU are led by Heisman Trophy hopefuls. The top upcoming games in September are presented below.

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Last year, the NCAA basketball betting world was shaken up when the #2 seed Duke Blue Devils lost to the #15 Lehigh Mountain Hawks as 11-point favorites. Now, the Dookies are back as a No. 2 seed once again, and they are going to try to go on a run here in the dance, starting with a clash against the Albany Great Danes.

The Great Danes only went 9-7 in the regular season in America East. Their conference was a lot better than it has been in previous seasons, but the fact that they were able to survive that conference tournament, winning the last game on the road at the Vermont Catamounts was impressive.

This is your prototypical tourney team that scares the wits out of some of the big boys. The talent isn’t there to stack up with the big guns, but Albany hits a high percentage of its three-point shots (36.4%) and plays stingy defense in the full-court press. The Great Danes only allow 60.3 points per game.

Duke is obviously playing with a bit of a chip on its shoulder. G Seth Curry, F Mason Plumlee, F Ryan Kelly, and G Quinn Cook, the top four scorers on this year’s team, all remember what it was like to lose to Lehigh in the first round last year, and they are going to try to avoid that embarrassment again in this one. Plumlee is a significantly better player now than he was at this time last year though, as the big man is averaging a double-double per game at 17.2 points and 10.2 boards per night.

Duke is 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games, but it is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games played here in the dance.

Still, the Blue Devils are lined as 17 ½-point favorites in this Friday afternoon game played at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.

This week was supposed to be a ‘status quo’ week for college football. However, four of the BCS’s top seven teams all suffered losses, creating a myriad of possibilities for the championship game. #2 Oklahoma State started the domino effect on Friday night by losing at Iowa State. #7 Clemson was the next to fall, getting smacked by 27 points. Both #4 Oregon and #5 Oklahoma were put away late, ending their BCS Championship hopes. Where does this leave us? #1 LSU, #3 Alabama, #6 Arkansas, and #8 Virginia Tech were all victorious on Saturday. Welcome to BCS hell, folks.

LSU (and their cheerleaders) took care of business in Week 12.

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The UCONN Huskies upset the second seeded San Diego State Aztecs en route to their eight straight win and Elite 8 appearance. UCONN’s 74-67 win was a blend of offensive efficiency and a lot of Kemba Walker. However, the Huskies will face the nation’s best player, Derrick Williams. Williams scored 32 points against the Duke Blue Devils in the Sweet 16. More impressively, of the 55 points the Wildcats scored in second half against the Blue Devils, Williams contributed only seven points. Williams is one of the most efficient scorers in all the land and the Huksies will have to contain him inside. Which team will advance to the Final Four?

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As we enter the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament play, only two Big East teams remain. The UCONN Huskies and the unlikely Marquette Golden Eagles are the last two teams standing. The #3 UCONN Huskies will take on the #2 San Diego State Aztecs in Anaheim. The Aztecs have a clear home court advantage, but Las Vegas doesn’t see the game that way. Vegas has the game as a straight up pick’em and this has the build to be the best game tonight. The scrappy #11 Marquette Golden Eagles have upset #6 Xavier and #3 Syracuse en route to their Sweet 16 match-up against the #2 North Carolina Tar Heels. The Tar Heels had a tough second round game against the Washington Huskies. The Golden Eagles have relied on tenacious defense and have felt both Syracuse and Xavier to under 63 points each. Will the Big East make it the Elite 8?

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The second round of the tournament is set after yesterday’s action. After analyzing each Big East match-up, I went 8-3 in the first round and look to improve upon that figure. Of note, I had VCU topping Georgetown and Gonzaga handling the Johnnies. The second round features another Big East head-to-head match-up with #3 Syracuse taking on #11 Marquette. #2 Notre Dame will play against the surging #10 Florida State Seminoles.

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After yesterday’s Opening Round games, four out of six Big East teams advanced to the second round. Lousville and St. John’s are heading home earlier than expected, but UCONN, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati had relatively easy games. West Virginia had a huge mid-game rally, which propelled them past Clemson. The name of the game at this time of year is just ‘Win Baby, Win’.


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Yesterday, I looked at the Big East squads in the East & West. Today, I’m going to dissect teams in the Southeast and Southwest brackets. Personally, I think that the Southeast is the easiest region and I don’t see any team that could slow down the #1 Pittsburgh Panthers. #6 St. John’s has a tough first round match up against tournament darling, #11 Gonzaga. In the Southwest, Notre Dame is the #2 seed, Louisville is #4, and Georgetown is #6.

Hi Justin

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The Big East Conference is very well represented in this tournament, sending eleven teams to the big dance. The Big East is America’s best conference and we should continue to expect to see hard-nosed, East Coast basketball from all of the teams. Today, we are going to look at the Big East teams playing in the East and West Regional tournaments.

Hi Kemba

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