Browsing Posts published in March, 2015

Some sports books have released MLB win totals. Over the next few days, we’ll analyze the win totals by division and comments where we see some value. Today, we’ll focus on the National League Central:

The odds-makers are expecting St. Louis’s division dominance to continue. St. Louis traded for Jason Heyward to bolster its outfield. Adam Wainwright may miss Opening Day, but St. Louis has the talent and depth behind him. Many are expecting Chicago to take a big step forward this season, so Chicago is the team to watch in this division.

St. Louis

There’s not much to say about the Cardinals. They’ve been to the NLCS in three straight seasons. They got younger by adding Heyward to an already stocked line-up. Lance Lynn, John Lackey, and Michael Wacha will need to step-up if Wainwright misses significant time. 

Pittsburgh

The Pirates didn’t make many moves, but lost Russell Martin to the Toronto Blue Jays. The odds-makers are projecting a slight win reduction. Despite some recent success, Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to get over the hump in the playoffs. Fans are hoping Starling Marte can take another step forward in 2015.

Chicago

Chicago signed Jon Lester and added Joe Maddon to manage the team. Are these additions worth 10+ wins? 

Milwaukee

Milwaukee is an interesting team. Adam Lind was added to give the line-up more left-handed power. Milwaukee opted to trade away Yovani Gallardo a year before his free agency. Milwaukee also collapsed during September as St. Louis and Pittsburgh passed them.

Cincinnati

Joey Votto  will return and will be the key to Cincinnati’s offense. When healthy, Votto is an MVP candidate. Ace Johnny Cueto will need to have another big season to keep Cincinnati in playoff contention.

Observations:

  • I’m not buying the optimism for Chicago. Chicago has some really good young bats, but will Lester replace (and surpass) the production posted by Sarmardijza? I think Chicago is a year away and don’t expect him to challenge St. Louis, Pittsburgh, or even Milwaukee

Best Bet:

  • Cubs Under 82.5 Wins

Some sports books have released MLB win totals. Over the next few days, we’ll analyze the win totals by division and comments where we see some value. Today, we’ll focus on the National League East:

The odds-makers believe that Washington will run away with the National League East title. After adding Max Scherzer to an already loaded rotation, it’s hard not to envision Washington not only winning the NL East, but winning the National League itself. 

Washington

As mentioned above, Washington is easily the best team in the National League. Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg can match-up against any team. Washington’s offense, which is led by Ian Desmond and Bryce Harper, is very solid. The rest of the NL East isn’t in Washington’s class.

New York

Hopes are very high for the Mets. Matt Harvey will return, Michael Cuddyer was signed to provide veteran leadership, and David Wright is 100% healthy after a pesky shoulder injury limited him last season. It’s been a very long-time since the Yankees and Mets were projected to win the same amount of games. The Mets have a golden opportunity to be the toast of the town.

Miami

Miami made Giancarlo Stanton its $325 million man, but its other moves have gone surprisingly unnoticed. Miami traded for Martin Prado and Mat Latos while inking Michael Morse in free agency. Its ace, Jose Fernandez, will be out until mid-June. 

Atlanta

With the exception of Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta lost nearly all of its talented players. Justin Upton and Jason Heyward were traded away while Aaron Harang and Ervin Santana, who threw nearly 400 innings, left via free agency. Julio Teheran and Alex Wood will be expected to lead this rotation.

Philadelphia

The Phillies are years away from competing. The Phillies may trade away Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee,  which would push Philadelphia deeper into its rebuilding process.

Observations:

  • Despite adding Scherzer, the odds-makers are projecting Washington to win fewer games. The odds-makers are still bullish on Miami even without the presence of Fernandez. None of these lines offer a lot of value, but I would bet on our hometown, New York Mets. The Mets may not make the playoffs, but winning 82-85 games would be a huge improvement and a building block for next season.

Best Bet:

  • Mets Over 81.5 Wins

Some sports books have released MLB win totals. Over the next few days, we’ll analyze the win totals by division and comments where we see some value. Today, we’ll focus on the American League West:

The odds-makers believe that Los Angeles will repeat as AL West champions, but Seattle is not far behind. Oakland traded away five of its seven All-Stars and lost the American League Wildcard game. Texas was completely derailed by injuries last season while Houston is building towards the future. 

Los Angeles

Los Angeles won 97 games last season, so the odds-makers are expecting a nine-win reduction. That win reduction can be attributed to its starting rotation. Jered Weaver struggled last season while CJ Wilson had the worst season of his career. Matt Shoemaker had a great rookie season, but can he repeat it as a 28-year-old, second-year player? Add in the Josh Hamilton drama and there are a lot of question marks surrounding this team.

Seattle

Seattle won 87 games last season, so the odds-makers are expecting a similar result. Robinson Cano was a welcomed addition and Felix Hernandez had the best season of his career. The key to getting to the next level will be the maturation of James Paxton and Taijuan Walker. 

Oakland

Oakland always finds a way to compete, so some way see some value after winning 88 games last season. Still, Oakland is betting on Brett Lawrie to replace the production of Josh Donaldson. Jon Lester and Jeff Sarmardizja are also gone. Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar are experienced players that should help keep Oakland competitive.

Texas

Odds-makers are expecting a big bounce back campaign by Texas. Texas won just 67 games last season, so an 11-win jump seems lofty. Texas is hoping to get full seasons from Prince Fielder, Shin Soo Choo, Mitch Moreland, and Yu Darvish. Texas also traded for Yovani Gallardo to bolster its rotation.

Houston

Houston traded for Evan Gattis to bolster its line-up, but lacks the starting pitching to compete. 

Observations:

The odds-makers are expecting a lot of change in this division. Texas and Houston are projected to win 11 and 5 more games, respectively while Los Angeles and Oakland are expected to regress.

Best Bets:

  • Angels Under 88.5 Wins
  • Astros Under 75.5 Wins

Some sports books have released MLB win totals. Over the next few days, we’ll analyze the win totals by division and comments where we see some value. Today, we’ll focus on the American League Central:

The odds-makers believe that the Cleveland Indians and the Detroit Tigers will compete for the AL Central Crown. These two teams, however, have starkly different compositions. Detroit features three top pitchers atop its rotation while Cleveland has the reigning Cy Young award winner, Cory Kluber.

Detroit

Fans are hoping that Justin Verlander is healthy after two injuries derailed his 2015 campaign. David Price and Anibal Sanchez will help take some of the pressure off Verlander, but as the staff ace, Detroit needs Verlander to return to his dominant ways. Detroit also got younger by trading for Yoenis Cespedes to replace Torii Hunter.

Cleveland

Terry Francona has restored order to the Indians. Kluber is arguably the best pitcher in the American League while outfielder Michael Brantley broke out last season. Cleveland does not have much depth behind Kluber, but its offense is stocked with power bats.

Chicago

Chicago re-tooled its roster by trading for Jeff Samardjiza and signing David Robertson, Adam LaRoche, and Melky Cabrera in free agency. Sale was injured last week and is expected to miss the first few weeks, so Samaradjiza and Jose Quintana will be expected to carry the rotation. 

Kansas City

Despite winning the American League last season, the odds-makers are not expecting much from Kansas City. James Shields left for San Diego and Kansas City’s offense does not present many great hitters. 

Minnesota

Minnesota has one of the best minor league systems, but that system isn’t expected to produce any players in 2015. 

Observations:

  • I think there are a few plays here. I was pretty bullish on the White Sox, but the injury to Sale is concerning. Plus, this team has been very inconsistent under manager, Robin Ventura. I don’t think Kansas City will be nearly as good after losing Shields. Detroit is still the class of this division and I don’t think Cleveland has the horses to stick with Detroit. I’m not a believer in Brantley, either.

Best Bets:

  • Tigers Over 84.5 Wins
  • Royals Under 81.5 Wins

Some sports books have released MLB win totals. Over the next few days, we’ll analyze the win totals by division and comments where we see some value. Today, we’ll focus on the American League East:

After adding Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, the odds-makers believe that the Boston Red Sox are American League East favorites. Boston, however, does not have a bonafide Ace atop its rotation. Boston was unable to re-sign starting pitcher (and fan favorite), Jon Lester. Boston has been discussing a trade for Cole Hamels, but it doesn’t look like it will happen before the season. The American League East features some great hitters, so Boston will need the starting pitchers to compete.

Toronto also added some more offensive firepower by signing Russell Martin and trading for Josh Donaldson. Toronto’s offense features a lot of right-handed power hitters, but alike Boston, does not have depth in its starting rotation. R.A. Dickey will be asked to lead this rotation, but Toronto has the uncanny ability to under-perform annually.

The Baltimore Orioles won the AL East last season, but the odds-makers aren’t expecting a second straight title. Nelson Cruz, who hit 41 home runs last season, signed with the Seattle Mariners. Baltimore is hoping Chris Davis can bounce back, but he’s an unknown entering the 2015 season. Baltimore also lacks rotation depth.

The New York Yankees are projected to finish fourth. The Yankees have gotten younger and are expecting bounce back campaigns from Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, and Ivan Nova. Chase Headley re-signed and the Yankees traded for shortstop, Didi Gregorious. Fans are also expecting respectable seasons from A-Rod and Mark Teixeira

Tampa Bay is expected to take a step-back after manager Joe Maddon left and Ben Zobrist, Yunel Escobar, and David Price were traded away. Tampa Bay is expecting its younger players to step-up and fill the void.

Observations:

  • I don’t think there’s a ton of value in any of these totals. I think the Yankees are better than the Blue Jays and Orioles, so I would want to bet Yankees (OVER). I think Tampa Bay is in for a rude awakening and should falter in a tight race for the AL East crowd. I’d bet Tampa Bay (UNDER).

Best Bets:

Yankees Over 81.5 Wins

Rays Under 78.5 Wins

Entering the 2015 season, expectations are high for the New York Mets. Ace Matt Harvey will return after having Tommy John surgery. Harvey’s presence will be a welcome addition to a team that won 79 games last season. Harvey will join a rotation that features Rookie of the Year, Jacob deGromm, Zach Wheeler, and Bartolo Colon. Harvey was masterful during the 2013 season by striking out 191 hitters over 178 innings while posting an impressive 2.27 ERA. deGromm stepped up in Harvey absence by posting a 2.69 ERA over 140 innings. Run support has been an issue and has limited win totals for its starting pitchers. New York added outfielder Michael Cuddyer and will hope for a bounce back campaign from David Wright. Cuddyer rejected a $15 million qualifying offer from Colorado in order to join New York on a two-year deal. Cuddyer only appeared in 49 games last season as he dealt with injuries, but the 36-year-old outfielder should provide leadership  to a younger lineup. Wright posted career lows last season as he dealt with an ailing shoulder injury. Wright’s home run total (8) and on-base percentage (.324) were career lows. 

Entering the 2015 season, the Washington Nationals are clear favorites in the National League East. Still, New York has the young talent to compete for a Wildcard spot. New York’s National League East foes are also expected to have down seasons. Atlanta is building for the future while Miami is dealing with a few injuries. The opportunities will be there for the Mets to compete in the 2015.