It’s Deja Vu all over again. The San Antonio Spurs lead the Miami Heat two games to one heading into a pivotal Game 4 of the NBA Finals. The Spurs put on an offensive clinic in Game 3, making 19 of its first 21 shots and shot an NBA Finals record, 76 percent from the field in the first half. The Heat went on a small third quarter run, but the Spurs cruised to a comfortable 111-92 victory. This outcome may feel familiar since the Spurs won Game 3 in blowout fashion last year, toasting the Heat 113-77. Miami ultimately came back to win the series in seven games, so both teams will look to impose their will in Game 4.

Several Heat players, including Chris Bosh, LeBron James, and Mario Chalmers, must step up after woeful Game 3 performances. After scoring 18 points in Games 1 and 2, Bosh only had four shot attempts in Game 3. James was responsible for seven of Miami’s 20 turnovers while Chalmers missed all of his shots in Game 3. All three players must bounce back in Game 4.

In typical Spurs’ fashion, Spurs’ coach Greg Poppovich made a strategic move by starting power forward, Boris Diaw. Diaw, who boasted an impressive +30 during Game 1 and -5 during Game 2, was +20 during Game 3. Diaw has a total plus-minus of +45, which is the second highest in NBA history through three NBA Finals games. Diaw’s game isn’t flashy or exciting, but it is effective. 

The Spurs will look to put a vice grip type lock on the series by winning Game 4. If the Spurs do win Game 4, they’ll have a chance to win the championship on their home floor and avenge last year’s tough loss. 

Current NBA Odds have the Heat installed as 5.5 point home favorites. The Heat haven’t lost back-to-back games this season, but I think that may change in Game 4. The Heat have no answer on the defensive side of the ball and the Spurs are on a mission to win a championship. I’ll take the Spurs and the points while laying a little on the money line. It’s a contrarian play, but sometimes you need to go with your gut.

Pick: Spurs +5.5 and -ML