Last week, the 5-6 New York Jets looked completely inept as they dropped a 19-3 decision in Baltimore to the Ravens. As a rookie passer, Geno Smith has looked bewildered against the blitz. The Ravens deployed a multitude of blitz packages and Smith was only able to complete four passes for 42 yards through three and a half quarters of play. The 5-6 Miami Dolphins figure to follow suite and apply pressure early and often.
The Miami Dolphins, who are no strangers to controversy, head to New York off a very tough home loss to the Carolina Panthers. Carolina QB Cam Newton willed the Panthers to a last second victory and sent the Dolphins into a six-way tie for the final AFC playoff berth. With only five weeks to go, every game is critical. Given how tight the playoff race is, this battle of 5-6 AFC East foes is essentially an elimination game.
After this week’s home tilt against the Dolphins, the Jets will host the 4-7 Oakland Raiders, travel to take on the surging 8-3 Carolina Panthers, host the 4-7 Cleveland Browns, and square off against the 5-6 Dolphins in Week 17. A win this week will give the Jets a great chance at securing eight wins with the possibility of nine wins. The Jets figure to be a large underdog in Carolina against the Panthers.
Bookmakers are expecting a tight game between the Jets and Dolphins. A review of past 2013 NFL odds suggest that the Jets are the play as the home team in a ‘Pick’em Game’. The Jets are 4-1 against the spread as a home team this season while the Dolphins are 2-3 ATS as a road team. In addition, the over/under is set at 38.5 points, which is one of the lowest Week 13 totals. Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the NFL, so expect Rex Ryan to deploy pressure looks to test Miami’s offensive line. I like the Jets this week in a very tight contest.
Prediction: Jets 20 Dolphins 17