The Miami Dolphins have one of the toughest rush defenses in the game to crack. They’re allowing just 94.2 yards per game on the ground, and very few, even some of the best in the game, have yet to be able to make real headway against them. Yet on Thursday Night Football, the Buffalo Bills are going to be giving in their best shot in this crucial Week 11 clash to take down the Fins in the AFC East.

The Bills, to their credit, do have one of the best rushing offenses in the game. They rank No. 6 on the ground at 143.1 yards per game. However, one key cog of that running game, RB Fred Jackson is out of the fold with a  concussion, which leaves just RB CJ Spiller to carry the load.

It’s not like Spiller hasn’t done the job this year in his duties. He was a full-time player in Weeks 1 and 2, and he had a total of 292 yards and three scores on the ground on 29 total carries because of it. Thus far this year, Spiller already has 632 yards and four scores on the ground, and he has 28 receptions, 297 yards, and a TD as a receiver. Assuming he stays healthy, Spiller is going to shatter all of his career high marks set last year, and he is probably going to be a 1,000-yard back for the first time as well.

Buffalo is favored by a slender 1 ½-points for your NFL picks on Thursday night, but if Spiller can’t figure out how to average more than four yards per carry against this Miami defense, it is inevitably going to be a long night at Ralph Wilson Stadium, one which would essentially knock the Bills out of the playoff picture once and for all.