Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Last week, I went 1-1-1 with my picks. This week, I have two Thanksgiving Day picks as well as one pick on Sunday. This week’s picks revolve around these three games:

  • Green Bay (10-0) at Detroit (7-3)
  • San Francisco (9-1) at Baltimore (7-3)
  • Buffalo (5-5) at New York Jets (5-5)

Is Kevin Smith Ready to Ruin The Perfect Season?

Game #1: Green Bay at Detroit (+5)

If the Lions want to make another statement, they can do it in front of the world. The Lions enjoyed their first signature win back in Week 5. The Lions hosted the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football and put on an absolute show. Stafford was Stafford as he led the Lions by the Bears, 24-13. That win made people realize the Lions were for real. 

The Perfect Pack haven’t lost a game in a calendar year. Aaron Rodgers (31-4, TD:INT) has been Aaron Rodgers all season long. Rodgers to Jennings. Rodgers to Finley. Rodgers to Nelson. Bink, bink, boop. All over the field. One thing Rodgers cannot control is the poor play by the Green Bay secondary. The Packers are the second worst pass defense in the league (289.3 yards per game).

The Lions pass defense has been one of the league’s best (189.3 yards per game) and it should provide some resistance against Rodgers.

I like the Lions to feature running back, Kevin Smith early and often to keep Rodgers off the field. The line has slid down from seven points to five. Some books have it at four. Money is coming in on the Lions. Take’em

The Pick: Detroit (+5)

Game #2: San Francisco at Baltimore (-3.5)

This is San Francisco’s fifth trip to the East Coast. That’s a lot and that’s not really fair. But fairness doesn’t really matter in the NFL. Coming off a short week and huge win over the Arizona Cardinals, the 49ers must get ready for a smash mouth game against the Ravens. The Ravens may be without their leader, though.

Ray Lewis is very questionable for this contest with a foot injury, but knowing Ray, he’ll want to be out there. Speaking of another Ray, Ray Rice is the focal point of the Baltimore offense and will lead the Raven rushing attack. The 49er defense hasn’t given up a rushing touchdown this season, but they only played one formidable rushing attack (Philly). The Eagles have struggled so much this season that the San Francisco win isn’t even that impressive. I can stat you to death about how good the 49ers have been, but their schedule has been fairly easy.

I don’t really trust Joe Flacco, but I just see the Ravens coming out with a ton of energy for the ‘Har-Bowl’. I don’t the short week and long flight for the 49ers.

The Pick: Baltimore (-3.5)

Game #3: Buffalo at New York Jets (-9)

Buffalo lost their stud running back this week when they played Fred Jackson on injured reserve. To make matters worse, the Bills have lost three straight games including a down-right embarrassing performance against the Dolphins last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been bewilderingly bad over his last three games, throwing seven interceptions to two touchdowns. He has stunk and losing Jackson hurts big time. 

The Jets have had ten days to wonder what the heck happened in Denver. The Jets were Tebow’ed and Rex has been challenging his team this week at practice. The Jets need this game in the worst way possible and I expect a huge performance by Sanchez and the entire offense. 

The Pick: New York (-9)

Last Week: 1-1-1

Year-To-Date: 14-12-1