The Classless Jets went down on Thursday night, which was fun and entertaining for me and embarrassing for Rex and Co. This week, I offer three picks for Week 11. I want to pick the Packers (-14), but they are blowing everyone out recently and that’s just not fun. This week’s picks center around these three games:

  • Tennesee at Atlanta
  • San Diego at Chicago
  • Arizona at San Francisco

    Cash In Time For The Burner?--AP Photo

Game #1: Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-6)

The 5-4 Atlanta Falcons are in a ‘do or die’ situation at home. Coming off a tough (and embarrassing) home loss in over time to the New Orleans Saints, Mike Smith’s team needs a win. The NFC’s top seed from last season will need to a big effort out of Michael Turner, who is averaging 4.4 yards per carry. The Falcons will rely on their top 5 rush defense to stop a Titans team who ran for 172 yards last week.

Chris Johnson hasn’t been Chris Johnson. Johnson has averaged a career-low, 3.4 YPC and looks rather uninterested during the games. The Titans have the league’s worst rushing attack (81.3 YPG) and relied heavily on the right arm of Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck is averaging 237 YPG, but will be forced to toss the ball more frequently against Atlanta stout front seven.

Both the Falcons and Titans are 5-4 and fighting for their playoff lives. No one expected the Titans to be hanging around and they are coming off a big win in Carolina. Atlanta is embarrassed with their showing in overtime last week and seemed destined for a big bounce back. Lay the points and take the Dirty Birds.

Pick #1: Atlanta Falcons -6

Game #2: San Diego Chargers (+4) at Chicago Bears

The key number in this game is four. The San Diego Chargers (4-5) have dropped four straight games while the Chicago Bears (6-3) have won four in a row. The Bears are coming off a huge win against the Lions while the Chargers stumbled to the Raiders at home. While San Diego has had ten days to prepare for the Monsters of the Midway, they have lost three starting offensive linemen this week. Phil Rivers and Norv Turner has been under a lot of fire for his team’s uninspiring play. The Chargers have the play makers on offense to get it done, but they’ll been sputtering.

Matt Forte has been everything and more for the Bears. The dual threat running back is first in the league in total yards. After getting gashed by Michael Bush last week, the Chargers have a steep challenge in defending Forte.

For some odd reason, I have a feeling about the Chargers winning out right. The Bears are coming off a huge, divisional win and the Chargers are a very desperate football team. Vegas is begging people to bet the Bears after last week’s win, but the sharps are betting the Chargers. Give me Norv’s boys in a huge bounce back performance.

Pick #2: San Diego Chargers (+4)

Game #3: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-10)

The Arizona Cardinals are coming back to the West Coast after a huge road win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Quarterback, John Skelton threw for three touchdowns (two to Mr. Fitz) as the Cards beat the Eagles. The 49ers made a statement when they upended the New York Giants. The 49ers have won seven games in a row and are the league’s best rush defense. The 49er rushing attack (seventh in the NFL) may be without Frank Gore, which obviously hurts. Backup, Kendall Hunter has averaged 4.8 YPC and can help fill in the Gore void.

I read a statistic that when teams win outright in games when they are 10+ underdogs, they are 27-49 against the spread as long as they aren’t favored by more than three points.

I don’t love San Fran, but this is more of a move against Arizona, given their big win last week.

Pick #3: San Francisco (-10)

Year-To-Date Record: 13-11