From now until the end of the season, I’ll give the readers my lock of the week. I’ll take a look at the trends and look inside the numbers and give you the pick to beat Vegas.

This week’s pick will feature a player who I hate, but is good at what he does, beating vulnerable opponents on his home turf…

This week’s selection:

Arizona Cardinals at San Diego Chargers (-8.5)

The Chargers have started the season with a disappointing 1-2 record, but when don’t they start slow?

However, the Chargers are a great home team. Since 2007, the San Diego Chargers are 21-7 at home. In Week 2, they pummeled the Jaguars, 38-13 at home.

Philip Rivers has been excellent this season. Rivers has completed 61% of his passes for 1,087 yards and 7 TDs. Last week, Rivers led a late fourth quarter rally against the Seattle Seahawks, but special teams really led the Bolts down as Leon Washington ran two kickoffs back for touchdowns. You’ll rarely see a team post 518 yards of total offense and hold an opponent to 271 yards and lose.

This week’s opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, have been absolutely dreadful this year. Quarterback Derek Anderson has completed only 52% of his passes for 580 yards in three games. The Chargers have caused five interception this year, second best in football. Expect them to bring the heat early and offense on Anderson.

The Arizona running game hasn’t been much better, running for 116 yards per game. Beanie Wells has been dealing with injuries and Tim Hightower looks rather uninterested.

The Arizona defense has given up 146.3 rushing yards per game, second worst in the league.

Don’t let their 2-1 record fool you. The Oakland Raiders out-gained the Cards, 364 to 227 and they were playing in Arizona! If not for a Sebastian Janikoski missed field goal, the Cardinals would have lost. In week 1, the St. Louis Rams’ late game comeback fell a bit short. Ultimately, the Cardinals could be 0-3 this season.

Expect a lot of Antonio Gates in this match-up. Oakland tight end, Zach Miller toasted the Cards for 61 yards and a score last week. Gates has 242 yards and 4 TDs on the season. Expect him to increase those totals this week.

During the week, the line jumped from 7.5 to 8 to 8.5. Lay the points and take the Bolts in a big-win.