It took him awhile, but A-Rod clubbed his 600th home run yesterday against the Blue Jays. After the game, Rodriguez was quoted saying that the journey to 600 while winning with his team mates was the most rewarding part of the chase. A 47 at-bat chase that is.

Blue Jays’ manager, Cito Gaston chimed in on Rodriguez climb and said that he would make it 700 career home runs if he stayed healthy. With Rodriguez inked to play for the Yankees for the next 8 1/2 seasons, how many homers can we reasonably expect?

If use purely use Mr. Gaston’s logic, A-Rod would average roughly 12 home runs over the next eight seasons to hit that mark. I think he’ll hit a few more than that.

During 2010, Rodriguez has hit 17 home runs in 383 at-bats (1 HR/22 at-bats). If we project this number over the rest of the season, he’ll finish the season with 26 HRs. With this milestone home run out of the way, I think A-Rod can hit one of his famous hot streaks and smack homers out in bunches. Let’s say he finishes the year at 30 HRs, putting him at 613 career home runs.

After 2010, A-Rod will have seven seasons left on his Yankee deal. If we assume A-Rod can keep him up his 30 HR average until he’s 38, here’s where he’ll stand…

2011 2012 2013
HRs 30 30 30
Total 643 673 703

Four years left on the contract and he only needs 60 home runs to break Barry Bonds’ all-time record.

Just for arguments sake, let’s say that he regress to 20 home runs per year over his final four years. Granted he’ll finish the contract at 42 years old and we’ll account for decline in production and age.

2014 2015 2016 2017
HRs 20 20 20 20
Total 723 743 763 783

So A-Rod finishes at 783 home runs.

Obviously, I can’t look into the future to foresee injuries and an even further decline in production. Physically, A-Rod is an absolute beast. He is always in top shape, so we do not have to worry about his physical conditioning. His hip injury is worth monitoring in the coming years, but all signs point to him breaking Bonds’ record…

Agree or Disagree?