In this article, I’m going to profile four players who I feel are currently over-valued given their current average draft position. If a player makes this list, don’t freak out! I don’t necessarily think that these players will have bad seasons, but their projected stats do not correspond with their draft rankings. Here we go….
1. Nick Markakis, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Don’t get me wrong. I’m a big time Markakis fan. The guy has an absolute cannon in the outfield. He is a very solid hitter, posting a line of 18 HRs, 101 RBIs, and a .293 batting average. However, he is being taken as the 12th overall outfielder in drafts. His ADP of 50 lands him somewhere in the 5th-6th round, depending on your settings. Markakis is being drafted over players like Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo, and Manny Ramirez. Given Markakis’ past numbers and current ADP, he is not worth a 5th round selection.
Projection: 21 HRs, 95 RBIs, .290 batting average, 4 SBs
2. Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians
Again, another guy that I’m a big fan of. Sizemore has the coveted blend of speed and power that teams covet. However, Grady is coming off a major abdominal surgery and elbow procedure. Sizemore will be expected to lead off and carry the Indian offense. Sizemore being selected as the 8th overall outfielder with an ADP of 30. Way too risky for me in 3rd round when I can wait a round or two for a Curtis Granderson or Adam Lind(You can tell that I’m high on Lind this season). I like Sizemore a lot if the price is right, but its not right this year and there are too many variables working against him.
Projection: 20 HRs, 75 RBIs, .279 batting average, 19 SBs
Side Note: I’m a big believer in waiting for outfielders this season. You can get good value(Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, Shane Victorino, etc.) later in the draft. If you have a Matt Kemp/Ryan Bruan/Justin Upton/Matt Holliday staring you down in the first three rounds, draft them. If you don’t, just wait. There will be value later.
3. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers
You will rarely find a 30-30 player on the ‘over-valued’ list. Kinsler is one of the best second basemen in the league, when healthy. During his four year career, health has been the big concern for Kinsler. Kinsler has only played 130+ games twice. Kinsler slugged 32 HRs and stole 31 bases while posting an abysmal .253 batting average. Fantasy owners can’t ask for everything from their players, but when your ADP is 16, you need to be a healthy, slam dunk pick. I’ll wait three rounds and grab a Robinson Cano or Brandon Phillips who can provide similar production
4. John Lackey, SP, Boston Red Sox
I don’t expect Lackey to be ‘wicked good’ for the Sox this season. Lackey has had issues staying on the field. Lackey made just 24 and 27 regular season starts respectively in 2008 and 2009. The Red Sox did give Lackey 5-year deal this off season so they must believe his medical woes are behind him. However, Lackey has a career 5.75 ERA in Fenway Park. Those numbers are a little staggering. He will benefit from the Red Sox run support and should win 13-14 games, but there are other pitchers(Jair Jurrjens, Brett Anderson) I’d take over Lackey at his ADP of 120. Jurrjens and Anderson will also be around rounds later. Pass on Lackey.
Projection: 14 wins, 3.99 ERA, 160 Ks
ADP Credit: KFFL
Photo Credit: daylife.com